现货黄金接近高位,纽约制造业指数升至25.5
纽约制造业指数升至25.5,现货黄金在该数据公布后交投于接近高位的水平。金价维持在近期高点附近。
纽约制造业指数升至25.5,现货黄金在该数据公布后交投于接近高位的水平。金价维持在近期高点附近。
Penjualan dalam dagangan AI berterusan dan kemerosotan dalam saham teknologi semakin meningkat, apabila pelabur beralih daripada saham teknologi kepada keselamatan relatif bon kerajaan dan sektor ekuiti defensif.
Editorial Comment
The sell-off in technology stocks drove funds into government bonds and defensive stocks, indicating that the market's risk appetite is shrinking. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, this safe-haven switch deserves attention, especially the transmission of fluctuations in bond yields to the cost of gold holdings and the relative performance of safe-haven currencies. Traders should pay attention to whether subsequent capital flows spread from the stock market to the foreign exchange market and precious metals, rather than a single sector adjustment.
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AI交易抛售延续,资金从科技股转向政府债券和防御性板块,提供了一个观察市场风险偏好从进攻转向避险的切面。
黄金在热通胀数据公布后上涨1.3%,收益率和美元回落,避险资产回归。
黄金上涨1.30%,因交易员在美国CPI公布前调整头寸。
AUDUSD jatuh lebih daripada 1% selepas laporan pekerjaan September Australia lebih lemah daripada yang dijangkakan, dengan penjual mengambil alih kawalan selepas pecah teknikal. Guna tenaga jatuh sebanyak 39,300 dan kadar pengangguran lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan pada 4.7%; selepas harga menembusi bawah 0.69056–0.69205, sokongan seterusnya memfokus pada 0.68321–0.68632, yang mengandungi 50% titik tengah 0.68488.
Editorial Comment
The combination of weak Australian employment data and technical breaks has strengthened the short-term weakness of the Australian dollar and may be transmitted to the overall risk sentiment through commodity currency linkage. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the competition between 0.69056 and 0.68488. Gains and losses in this area will help judge whether the decline can continue. At the same time, pay attention to the overall trend of the US dollar to suppress non-US currencies.
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就业数据催化与 AUDUSD 技术破位结合,0.69056 至 0.68488 是判断跌势能否延续的可观察区间。
Saham A.S. meneruskan penurunannya hari ini, dengan tiga indeks saham utama memasuki pertarungan untuk purata pergerakan utama. S&P 500 telah jatuh di bawah purata pergerakan 200 jam 7,706.38, Komposit Nasdaq telah mengambil alih hampir purata pergerakan 100 hari 26,289, dan Nasdaq 100 masih di bawah purata pergerakan 100 hari 29,626.09. Penulis mengingatkan bahawa memegang sokongan hanyalah langkah pertama, dan purata bergerak yang jatuh perlu dipulihkan untuk mengurangkan tekanan ke bawah.
Editorial Comment
The competition around the key moving averages of the three major U.S. stock indexes is not over yet. Whether short-term technical conditions are repaired or not is an important observation window for risk sentiment. For gold and foreign exchange traders, the moving average gain and loss can be used as an auxiliary signal to judge market hedging or risk preference switching, but it needs to be verified in conjunction with subsequent price behavior.
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作者用三大股指具体的均线位和前支撑位标注多空分界,读者可对照当前行情判断短线趋势能否修复。
Suku rekod TSMC menunjukkan bahawa permintaan untuk cip AI terus kukuh, dan kapasiti pengeluaran proses lanjutannya telah menjadi medan pertempuran yang sengit untuk pelanggan seperti Nvidia, AMD dan Broadcom. Keuntungan TSMC mencecah rekod tertinggi untuk suku keenam berturut-turut, dan hasil suku keempat dijangka berkembang 58% tahun ke tahun. Walau bagaimanapun, penganalisis menegaskan bahawa kekangan kapasiti dalam 12 hingga 18 bulan akan datang boleh mengancam pelaburan infrastruktur syarikat AI dan matlamat pertumbuhan hasil. TSMC sedang mengembangkan kapasiti pengeluaran dengan menambah fab baharu di Taiwan, Jepun dan Arizona, manakala Samsung dan Intel cuba memenangi pelanggan daripada kapasiti yang ketat.
Editorial Comment
TSMC's record quarter highlights the bottleneck of AI chip production capacity. Capacity constraints in the next 12 to 18 months may restrict some AI infrastructure investment and revenue growth targets. If this supply chain constraint triggers a reassessment of the market's growth expectations for technology stocks, it may affect risk appetite and capital flows, which will in turn be transmitted to fluctuations in the gold and foreign exchange markets.
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TSMC创纪录季度暴露AI客户对晶圆产能的激烈争夺,产能瓶颈可能在未来12到18个月制约部分AI基础设施投资。
黄金上涨近1%。该行情来自 TradingView。
Inflasi pengeluar AS meningkat 6.3% tahun ke tahun pada bulan September, lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan pasaran sebanyak 5.3%.
Berita yang sama, pilihan di bawah《美国9月PPI同比6.3%,高于预期的5.3%》
Editorial Comment
U.S. producer inflation rose 6.3% year-on-year in September, 1 percentage point higher than expected, indicating that upstream price pressures were stronger than the market's consensus, making assessments of the interest rate outlook more cautious. This data may affect the valuation logic of the U.S. dollar and gold through the policy expectation channel. Traders need to pay attention to subsequent inflation data and policy signals for further revisions to market expectations.
黄金在通胀数据火热后上涨1.3%,同期收益率与美元回落,避险需求回归。
AWS, OpenAI, Anthropic dan Accenture serta Google Cloud bersaing untuk merekrut dan melatih jurutera penggunaan ke hadapan (FDE) untuk menjadikan model besar sebagai aplikasi perusahaan dan bertindak balas terhadap keraguan pasaran tentang pulangan pelaburan dalam AI.
Editorial Comment
This news shows that leading cloud vendors are allocating resources to the implementation of AI applications in response to the market’s questioning of investment returns, which is related to changes in capital expenditure efficiency and risk appetite in the technology sector. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, the subsequent realization of AI commercialization may be transmitted through market sentiment and capital flows. Traders can pay attention to the industry prosperity signals reflected in the financial reports of relevant companies and recruitment enthusiasm.
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大型科技公司竞相投入数十亿美元组建前向部署工程师队伍,岗位招聘与薪资涨幅显示相关人才竞争正在加速。
Alat CME FedWatch menunjukkan bahawa kebarangkalian pasaran untuk kenaikan kadar faedah 25 mata asas pada mesyuarat FOMC Rizab Persekutuan pada 28 Oktober turun daripada 50% kepada 27.1%. Harga pasaran telah berubah dengan ketara pada hari lalu.
Editorial Comment
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October dropped from 50% to 27.1% in a single day, indicating that the market's pricing of the short-term tightening path has significantly cooled down. This change may ease the dollar's support from interest rate expectations and affect the holding cost logic of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold. Traders need to pay attention to whether subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials and economic data will further revise this expectation.
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CME FedWatch概率单日从50%降至27.1%,这一变化能帮助理解10月会议前市场加息预期的降温。
Pasaran bon memberi amaran tentang ledakan perbelanjaan AI, dengan hasil bon CoreWeave meningkat kepada 15%. Pengarang menyenaraikan empat isyarat: Gavin Baker berkata bahawa komitmen perbelanjaan trilion dolar OpenAI dan Anthropic tidak dipandang serius. Pendapatan suku ketiga Anthropic sebanyak $16.8 bilion meningkat 45% daripada suku sebelumnya, tetapi ia tidak mencukupi untuk menyokong penilaian $2 trilion. Hasil Perbendaharaan A.S. 10 tahun jatuh semula kepada 5.06% daripada paras tertinggi bulan ini sebanyak 5.34%, menunjukkan bahawa dana sedang mencari keselamatan dan perdagangan AI mungkin mula melonggarkan kedudukan.
Editorial Comment
The bond market's doubts about the sustainability of AI spending may intensify risk asset volatility and affect U.S. dollar liquidity expectations. Traders can pay attention to the linkage between the fall in U.S. bond yields and risk aversion. If the closing of AI transactions triggers funds to seek safety, the allocation logic of gold and traditional safe-haven currencies is worth paying attention to.
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原文把CoreWeave债券收益率升至15%与AI厂商开支承诺联系起来,为判断AI资本周期提供了债券市场视角。
Pantheon Macroeconomics berkata data CPI September meninggalkan Fed dengan sedikit ruang untuk berhenti seketika. CPI keseluruhan meningkat 0.6%, sejajar dengan jangkaan, dan CPI teras meningkat 0.3%, 0.1 mata peratusan lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan konsensus. Agensi itu menjangkakan satu lagi kenaikan kadar faedah sebelum akhir tahun.
Editorial Comment
The higher-than-expected core CPI narrowed the Fed's room to pause interest rate hikes, and the market's expectations that interest rates will remain high or be further tightened may increase, which logically puts pressure on the non-interest-bearing asset gold. Traders will need to pay attention to subsequent Fed officials' interpretation of the data and the reaction of the yield curve.
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核心CPI高出预期0.1个百分点,压缩了美联储暂停空间,Pantheon据此判断年底前还会加息一次。
美债收益率在 PPI 数据火热的情况下仍明显下行,未因通胀指标偏热而上行。
TradingView 观点显示,澳元跌至15周低点。
美国 PPI 创 4 年最大涨幅。
Emas mengekalkan kenaikan semalaman, dengan harga kekal melebihi $4,100; IHPR AS meningkat 6.3% pada bulan September.
Editorial Comment
The 6.3% increase in U.S. PPI in September showed that upstream inflationary pressures are still strong, but gold still held on to overnight gains and remained above $4,100, indicating that the market's short-term reaction to inflation data has not weakened the resilience of precious metals. It is worth noting that this price performance may reflect that traders pay more attention to real interest rate expectations or risk aversion than a single inflation indicator. It will be necessary to observe how the market digests the interaction between this data and the Fed's policy signal.
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黄金在PPI上升6.3%的情况下仍守住4100美元上方,为观察贵金属价格与通胀数据关系提供了即时样本。
XAU/USD 黄金价格预测看向 $4100,关注美国 CPI 通胀与地缘政治风险。FXStreet 的展望将美国通胀数据和地缘政治风险作为金价走向的核心背景。
美银证券恢复对PayPal的评级为卖出等价(Underperform),目标价53美元,理由是第三季度疲软和长期转型。同时恢复对FIS、GPN、TOST的买入评级。
Penulis percaya penurunan mendadak Nasdaq semalam mungkin bukan sahaja didorong oleh jangkaan kenaikan kadar faedah, tetapi juga isyarat awal bahawa pasaran mula lebih bimbang tentang prospek ekonomi masa depan. Selepas CPI teras A.S. melebihi jangkaan, jangkaan kadar faedah akhir menjadi dovish, hasil bon A.S. jatuh, harga tembaga juga jatuh mendadak, dan spread kredit telah mengeluarkan amaran selama beberapa minggu. Secara teknikal, Nasdaq jatuh di bawah garis aliran menaik utama, dan kami akan menumpukan pada tahap utama seperti 28,742 dan 26,971 serta pemangkin seperti Flash PMI, mesyuarat FOMC dan rundingan AS-Iran.
Editorial Comment
This news suggests that the market pricing logic may shift from simply responding to inflation to accounting for slowing growth in advance. The simultaneous decline in yields and weakening copper prices is worthy of attention. For gold, if far-end interest rates fall and risk aversion resonates, it will amplify the game between its interest rate and risk aversion properties; for the foreign exchange market, it is necessary to observe the relative changes in the US dollar between growth concerns and interest rate spread expectations. The subsequent Flash PMI, FOMC meeting and US-Iran negotiations are key windows to verify this logic.
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原文把CPI后收益率下行与铜价下跌放在一起看,提示市场正从抗通胀转向担忧增长,并给出纳斯达克关键技术位。
美元兑多数主要货币走低,美债收益率全线回落,纳斯达克期货仍下跌354点。澳大利亚9月就业减少39,300人(预期增加20,000人),失业率4.7%,拖累AUDUSD跌0.79%至0.6914,成为主要货币中的例外。现货黄金涨1.12%至4,150.85美元,WTI原油涨0.27%至95.35美元;PPI、零售销售和初请失业金数据稍后公布。
Indeks perniagaan Philadelphia Fed pada Oktober ialah +20.9, lebih rendah daripada jangkaan +28.4 dan nilai sebelumnya ialah +37.8. Sub-penunjuk seperti pesanan baharu, penghantaran dan pekerjaan jatuh semula tetapi kekal positif, manakala indeks harga yang dibayar jatuh manakala indeks harga yang diperoleh meningkat. Penulis percaya bahawa pasaran mula bimbang tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi, dengan hasil Perbendaharaan A.S. 10 tahun jatuh dan keluk hasil mendatar.
Editorial Comment
The Philadelphia Fed Business Index fell significantly from the previous value of 37.8 to 20.9 and was lower than expected. New orders, shipments, employment and other sub-categories simultaneously cooled down but are still in the expansion range, indicating that the manufacturing momentum is weakening rather than shrinking. Market concerns about economic growth have pushed U.S. bond yields downward and the yield curve flattened, which will affect the safe-haven pricing logic of the U.S. dollar and gold. Traders need to pay attention to whether subsequent regional Fed data will continue this slowdown signal.
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原文先给出费城联储总指数回落且低于预期,再列出新订单、出货、就业等分项放缓,并提到美债收益率曲线趋平,为解读增长担忧提供数据链条。
Indeks pembuatan Fed New York A.S. meningkat kepada 25.5 pada Oktober daripada nilai sebelumnya 7.60 dan jangkaan pasaran 10.25. Indeks pesanan baharu melonjak 21 mata kepada 23.2, dan indeks penghantaran meningkat 16 mata kepada 13.1, menunjukkan pengembangan dalam aktiviti pembuatan. Tekanan harga kekal, dengan indeks ketersediaan bekalan jatuh kepada -15.1, terendah sejak Jun 2022.
Editorial Comment
The New York Fed's manufacturing index significantly exceeded expectations and new orders and shipments strengthened simultaneously, providing a direct reading for assessing the expansion momentum of the U.S. manufacturing industry. The market may re-examine the recent economic resilience based on this. Supply availability has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, and superimposed price pressures still exist, which means that cost-side constraints have not yet been lifted. Traders need to pay attention to the subsequent impact of such data on inflation expectations and monetary policy pricing.
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纽约州制造业指数升至25.5,新订单与出货同步走强,为观察美国制造业扩张动能提供直接读数。
IHPR permintaan akhir AS meningkat 6.3% tahun ke tahun pada bulan September, lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan 5.3% dan nilai sebelumnya sebanyak 5.4%. Memandangkan beberapa item PPI dimasukkan secara langsung dalam PCE teras, kejutan yang tidak dijangka ini boleh menjejaskan harga inflasi Fed.
Editorial Comment
September's PPI was significantly higher than expected year-on-year and some items were included in core PCE, which means that the market's pricing of inflationary pressure from the Federal Reserve is at risk of upward revision. Traders need to pay attention to the data's disruption to interest rate path expectations, as well as the rebalancing of gold valuation logic under the linkage between the US dollar and real interest rates. Subsequent core PCE data may become a key variable to verify the stickiness of inflation.
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9月PPI同比6.3%明显高于预期的5.3%,核心分项同步偏强,或影响市场对美联储核心PCE和利率路径的定价。
Jualan runcit A.S. meningkat sebanyak 0.8% bulan ke bulan pada bulan September, lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan pasaran sebanyak 0.3%. Nilai sebelumnya telah disemak sehingga 1.2%. Walau bagaimanapun, selepas mengecualikan petrol dan kereta, ia hanya meningkat sebanyak 0.2%, dan kumpulan kawalan hanya meningkat sebanyak 0.1%, yang lebih rendah daripada jangkaan; stesen minyak menyumbang 71% daripada peningkatan dalam dolar AS pada bulan September. Penulis percaya pertumbuhan perbelanjaan pengguna secara keseluruhan tidak sekuat tajuk utama, dengan petrol dan restoran menjadi penyumbang utama.
Editorial Comment
The overall US retail sales in September exceeded expectations, mainly driven by gasoline sales. After excluding gasoline and automobiles, growth slowed down significantly. The control group fell short of expectations, indicating that consumption momentum is not widespread. Traders need to pay attention to the disruption of this data to the Fed's policy expectations and whether the subsequent core retail component will continue to be weak, which may affect the short-term reaction of the U.S. dollar and gold.
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美国9月零售销售整体超预期,但剔除汽油和对照组后明显转弱,便于区分汽油推升与广泛消费动能。
Data daripada Jabatan Buruh A.S. menunjukkan bahawa jumlah tuntutan pengangguran awal untuk minggu yang berakhir pada 10 Oktober ialah 199,000, meningkat 1,000 daripada 198,000 yang disemak sebelum ini, masih di bawah 200,000; bilangan tuntutan berterusan untuk faedah pengangguran jatuh kepada 1,710,000, dengan purata empat minggu menurun, dan keseluruhan pasaran pekerjaan berubah sedikit. Penulis menganalisis bahawa pemberhentian masih terhad dan tidak mencukupi untuk mendorong Fed untuk terus melonggarkan berdasarkan pekerjaan.
Editorial Comment
Although the initial applications data rebounded slightly, it was still below the 200,000 mark. The combination of continued applications and the four-week average fell, indicating that the job market has not deteriorated significantly. This reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to further ease due to weak employment, and poses a marginal constraint on the trading logic of interest-rate-sensitive gold and non-US currencies. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the employment data can continue to verify resilience and the extent of its revision of the Fed's policy expectations.
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初请虽小幅上升但仍低于20万,续请与四周均值同步走低,显示劳动力市场韧性仍在,为观察美联储政策路径提供最新数据点。
Hasil Perbendaharaan A.S. jatuh pada hari Khamis, dengan hasil Perbendaharaan 10 tahun jatuh lebih daripada 13 mata asas kepada 5.056%, apabila pelabur beralih kepada bon untuk keselamatan di tengah-tengah penjualan saham teknologi. Harga borong A.S. meningkat 6.3% tahun ke tahun pada bulan September, peningkatan terbesar sejak 2022, dan CPI meningkat 3.7% tahun ke tahun, yang juga lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan. Pasaran kadar faedah menjangkakan untuk menaikkan kadar faedah sekurang-kurangnya 25 mata asas sebelum akhir tahun, dan jangkaan tidak banyak berubah.
Editorial Comment
U.S. bond yields fell as funds turned to safety amid the sell-off in technology stocks. At the same time, inflation data exceeded expectations but the interest rate market expected little change in interest rate hikes at the end of the year. This put gold in the context of a game between safe-haven demand and real interest rate expectations. The foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to whether the contraction in risk appetite changes the usual transmission of fluctuations in U.S. bond yields to the U.S. dollar, and the impact of changes in carry trade sentiment on major currency pairs.
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通胀数据超预期加剧科技股抛售,10年期美债收益率单日下跌逾13个基点,避险交易提供了风险偏好切换的即时参照。
英镑兑走弱美元上涨。英国GDP意外上升。
美国9月零售销售超预期,受汽油价格上涨推动。
美联储调查显示,燃料成本上升之际价格压力正在加剧。
古尔斯比(Goolsbee)称,AI引发的通胀正在“跳出自身车道”。该表态由Semafor报道。
Harga emas mencecah $4,154/oz selepas jualan runcit meningkat 0.8% pada bulan September.
Editorial Comment
Gold prices hit $4,154 per ounce after retail sales increased by 0.8% in September, showing that consumption data has a more obvious immediate impact on precious metal prices. Traders can pay attention to the short-term reaction of gold prices after the release of such economic indicators, as well as the corresponding adjustments in market expectations for monetary policy.
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零售销售增长0.8%后金价触及$4,154/oz,为观察消费数据对贵金属价格的即时影响提供了一个具体参考。
黄金跌破4,200,FXStreet 质疑6月以来反弹是否仅为三浪结构。
ING 将 EUR/USD 的年底目标下调至 1.13。
中国9月CPI同比上涨0.9%,低于预期的1.0%。
Pil Bank of England berkata ia lebih skeptikal mengenai harga pasaran dalam empat kenaikan kadar faedah pada tahun depan.
Editorial Comment
Bank of England official Pill expressed doubts about the market's pricing of four interest rate hikes within a year, indicating that current interest rate expectations may be more hawkish than the actual policy path, and the pound faces the risk of volatility caused by expected revisions. Traders need to pay attention to the subsequent statements of Bank of England officials and interest rate pricing adjustments, and evaluate their indirect transmission to the pound cross and US dollar-denominated gold.
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官员对市场四次加息预期表达怀疑,为判断英国利率路径提供政策信号。
黄金刷新周内低点并跌破 $4,150,交易员在美国 CPI 数据公布前评估美联储降息路径。
日元在美国CPI公布后跌至三周低点,随后全数收复跌幅。
美元指数在美国CPI数据公布前从18个月高位回落。