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#央行政策
10月30日周五
  1. ForexLive65

    Reuters sources: ECB policymakers lean toward pause after December rate hike

    Reuters, citing ECB sources, said policymakers are inclined to pause after raising rates in December. New ECB staff estimates show that higher bond yields will cumulatively lower growth by 100 bp and inflation by 90 bp over 2027–2028. The authors note that markets have fairly fully priced in a December rate hike, while the euro saw a mild sell-off on dovish expectations for a pause after December.

    Editorial Comment

    The ECB’s intention to pause after December’s rate hike means the tightening pace may enter an observation period, and the cumulative restraining effect of higher bond yields on growth and inflation reinforces this policy logic. Markets have fairly fully priced in the December hike; the focus ahead is on post-meeting communication and whether pause expectations are confirmed. Changes in the related rate path will affect the euro and, through central bank policy differentials and real interest-rate expectations, drive gold.

    Why we picked this

    路透消息源显示欧央行决策者倾向12月加息后暂停，并给出债券收益率上升对增长与通胀的量化影响。

  2. ForexLive50

    Gold falls below 100 hour moving average, interest rate concerns suppress rebound

    Spot gold fell below the 100-hour moving average of $4,026.50 and was trading at around $4,025, down about $41, or 1.03%. The author believes that higher U.S. bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and market expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve have made gold's rebound unsustainable; gold prices fell to $3,975 last Friday, the lowest since mid-July, and rebounded to above $4,000 at the beginning of this week.

    Editorial Comment

    The price of gold fell below the 100-hour moving average, reflecting the suppression of rebound space by interest rate expectations and the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the technical and macro aspects resonated. Traders can pay attention to whether the subsequent trend of U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar can continue this suppressive logic, as well as the impact of the previous low area on market sentiment.

    Why we picked this

    文章把利率预期、美元与收益率同黄金技术位结合，给出可对照的观察框架。

10月29日周四
  1. ForexLive61

    The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 fell below their 100-day moving averages as sellers gained control

    The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index both fell about 1.5%, both falling below their 100-day moving average. The S&P 500 only fell about 0.50% and held key daily support. The 100-day moving average of the Nasdaq Composite Index is at 26254.52, and the 100-day moving average of the Nasdaq 100 Index is at 29559.42. The author regards these two moving averages as the boundary between long and short risks. The following focuses on the range of 25831 and 28822 to 28953. The reaction to the financial report intensified the polarization, with Microsoft falling slightly and Alphabet falling about 12% due to its AI investment narrative.

    Why we picked this

    文章用100日均线与关键点位拆解纳指与标普的分化，读者可据此理解财报与美联储决议后的技术面压力。

  2. ECB Press Releases74

    ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged, Lagarde says energy shock is pushing up inflation and depressing growth

    The European Central Bank decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged on October 29. Lagarde said that the continued rise in energy prices poses upward risks to inflation and downward risks to growth. The inflation rate rose to 3.8% in September, of which energy price inflation rose to 18.9%. She said she would stick to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach and would not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变，并给出能源冲击推高通胀、压低增长的最新判断，可作为跟踪欧元与美元指数走向的政策依据。

  4. ForexLive69

    ECB keeps interest rates unchanged, Lagarde announces she will leave office in February next year

    In this interest rate decision, the European Central Bank kept the three major interest rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%, all in line with expectations. President Lagarde announced on the same day that she would leave office in February next year. She had previously stated that she would not leave during difficult times. The statement said that the continued rise in energy prices poses upward risks to inflation and downward risks to growth. The market is pricing in an unexpected interest rate hike of 13% this month and 65% in December. The euro fell 21 points to 1.1131 before the resolution, close to the low of the year.

    Why we picked this

    原文列出欧央行利率决议三项利率与市场定价，读者可对照12月加息概率与欧元位置判断政策路径。

  5. ForexLive63

    Lagarde says euro zone growth should be supported in the short term and inflation will be above target in the medium term

    European Central Bank President Lagarde said that AI investment and government spending should support growth in the short term, but a rebound in energy prices and rising financing costs are damaging confidence and growth. She said that overall inflation is likely to be significantly higher than the target in the next few quarters, energy will further push up inflation in the medium term, inflation risks are on the upward side, and growth risks are on the downside, and the ECB will adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach. She also said that she currently sees no substantial risk of a second-round effect, and the euro once fell to a range of 1.1106 to 1.1130.

    Why we picked this

    拉加德在问答中给出欧元区通胀与增长的双向风险判断，读者可据此理解欧央行后续按会议逐次决策的取向。

  6. ECB Press Releases66

    ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged

    The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility rate, main refinancing operation rate and marginal lending rate remaining at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively. The statement said that the continued rise in energy prices poses upward risks to inflation and downward risks to growth. Underlying inflation has been broadly stable so far, and wages have not yet shown a significant reaction. The APP and PEPP portfolios continue to shrink at a predictable pace, and the ECB will no longer reinvest the principal of maturing securities.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变，并说明能源冲击对通胀与增长的双向风险，便于判断后续政策路径。

  8. ForexLive48

    欧洲时段综述：美股期货下挫，市场等待美国PCE通胀、欧洲央行决议与亚马逊财报

    欧洲时段美股期货走弱，标普500期货跌0.4%、纳斯达克期货跌1.1%，Alphabet财报重新引发对AI支出的担忧。现货黄金跌1.1%至$4,018，10年期美债收益率降2个基点至5.02%，WTI原油跌0.8%至$101.95。市场接下来关注美国PCE通胀数据、欧洲央行利率决议以及亚马逊财报。

  11. ForexLive69

    The initial value of U.S. GDP in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2%

    The initial annualized GDP value of the United States in the third quarter was 3.4%, which was higher than the market expectation of 3.2% and slightly higher than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of 3.3%. Among the sub-items, investment contributed 3.27 percentage points, and consumer spending contributed about 2.52 percentage points. Net exports were a significant drag, and actual final sales only grew by 1.7%, lower than the 2.0% expectation. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, slightly above expectations of 2.4%.

    Why we picked this

    美国三季度GDP超预期但实际最终销售走弱，读者可据此判断库存对增长的贡献与美联储后续政策空间。

10月26日周一
  1. ForexLive58

    Gold may rebound in the short term as concerns about growth and US-Iran conflict recede, and focus turns to FOMC

    Giuseppe Dellamotta thinks gold may rebound in the short term as better-than-expected U.S. PMI eases growth concerns, worries about an Iran strike are dashed, and real yields fall. Gold is approaching the key support area of ​​3,885. If the price is in place, buyers may enter the market to rebound. If it falls below, it will look towards 3,500. The focus this week is Wednesday's FOMC decision, where the market is generally expected to keep the policy on hold and an unexpected interest rate hike will trigger a gold sell-off.

    Editorial Comment

    The author breaks down the short-term logic into two main lines: the fall in actual yields reduces the opportunity cost of gold holdings, while the disappearance of the risk premium in the Middle East takes away the previous safe-haven support. With the two hedging against each other, the gold price is more like oscillating within a range rather than choosing a direction unilaterally. The real pricing power this week falls on Wednesday's FOMC, where the consensus is to hold on unchanged. The risk point suggested by the author is that unexpected interest rate hikes may trigger selling pressure. For traders, rather than betting on direction in advance, it is better to track the effectiveness of key support areas and the actual market reaction once the resolution lands.

    Why we picked this

    作者从实际收益率和中东风险切入，给出黄金短线的支撑阻力区域，并提示 FOMC 意外加息的抛售风险。

  2. ForexLive53

    Foreign exchange market outlook for the week from October 26th to 30th

    Preview of major central bank decisions for the week from October 26 to 30: The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to remain unchanged, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each. The United States will also release the core PCE price index and preliminary third-quarter GDP this week, and the market will focus on the resilience of inflation.

    Editorial Comment

    This week is a week of intensive central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are expected to remain unchanged. If the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada raise interest rates as expected, the policy differentiation pattern of developed economies will be further highlighted. The difference in interest rate expectations of related currencies deserves attention. In addition, the U.S. core PCE price index and the initial value of third-quarter GDP will test the resilience of inflation and directly affect the market’s pricing of the Fed’s policy path. Compared with the resolution itself, changes in the wording of central bank statements are often the key to triggering exchange rate fluctuations.

    Why we picked this

    把RBNZ与加拿大央行的加息预期同美联储、欧央行的按兵不动放在一起，方便对照各货币的利率预期差。

  3. ForexLive45

    Preview of this week's five major central bank interest rates: market pricing is sufficient, focus turns to December policy signals

    This week, RBNZ, BOC, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce intensive interest rate decisions, and the market has basically priced in. Traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike for the RBNZ, about an 83% chance of a BOC rate hike, about a 91% chance of the Fed keeping rates on hold, a roughly 90% chance of the European Central Bank keeping interest rates on hold, and a roughly 98% chance of the Bank of Japan keeping rates on hold. Press conferences by central bank governors and chairs will be in focus as traders look for signals of further action in December.

    Editorial Comment

    This week's five major central bank decisions themselves have been fully priced in by the market, and the real variable lies in the wording of each governor's policy path in December. For gold, the marginal revision of real interest rates and US dollar expectations is more worthy of tracking than the resolution outcome itself; on the foreign exchange side, attention should be paid to whether the policy differences between RBNZ, BOC and the Federal Reserve continue to converge.

    Why we picked this

    本周五家主要央行密集议息，市场对即期决议定价充分，真正的看点在官员对 12 月政策路径的措辞，可能影响汇率与利率预期。

  4. CoinDesk46

    Bitcoin slides below $80,000 as traders reduce risk ahead of Fed meeting

    Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 in early Asian trading on Monday, falling below $80,000 as traders reduced risks ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Ethereum fell nearly 3% to above $2,300, XRP fell about 3% to $1.28, and other major coins were also generally lower. Traders are watching Wednesday's press conference to see whether Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh hints at a rate hike in December, which could tighten liquidity and further pressure cryptocurrencies and stocks.

    Editorial Comment

    Cryptocurrencies were broadly lower ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with traders' risk-reducing behavior signaling increased market sensitivity to tighter liquidity. This macro sentiment deserves the attention of gold and foreign exchange traders, especially the Fed Chairman's statement on raising interest rates in December, which may trigger a coordinated reaction in the US dollar and safe-haven assets.

    Why we picked this

    原文给出了比特币跌破 $80,000 后的关键阻力位 $82,500 和美联储会议前避险背景，可据此观察宏观情绪对币价的短期压力。

10月24日周六
  1. VnExpress Kinh doanh79

    World gold prices continue to fall, hitting a three-month low

    The world gold spot price closed down US$28 on October 23 to US$3,994 per ounce, the lowest since mid-July, with a cumulative decline of 4% that week. Rising oil prices triggered concerns about inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, which was the main reason for the decline in gold prices. The Federal Reserve policy meeting next week is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market is pricing in a 78% probability of raising interest rates in December.

    Editorial Comment

    The price of gold fell below a key psychological mark and hit a three-month low, reflecting that inflation concerns caused by rising oil prices are strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, thereby weakening the appeal of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged but releases a hawkish signal at next week's meeting, it may further solidify expectations for a December interest rate hike. Traders need to pay attention to marginal changes in policy language and market interest rate pricing, which will be the core variable for short-term fluctuations in precious metals.

    Why we picked this

    原文点出金价失守4000美元并创3个月新低，同时给出油价与通胀预期传导逻辑，可用于观察贵金属对美联储政策预期的敏感度。

10月22日周四
  2. CNBC Top News54

    U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 194,000, near lowest level since late 1960s

    The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 in the week ended October 17, close to the 189,000 in the week ended July 18, the lowest level since the late 1960s. Non-farm employment increased by only 29,000 in September, with an average monthly increase of 69,000 in 2026. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but the layoff rate fell to 1%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October and raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

    Editorial Comment

    The number of initial jobless claims is close to a historical low, but non-farm employment increased by only 29,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This differentiation makes the Fed's balance between inflation and employment more complicated. The market's expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December are in contrast to the weak employment data. Traders need to pay attention to subsequent statements by Federal Reserve officials on the resilience of the job market and the need to raise interest rates, which may increase the volatility of gold and the US dollar.

    Why we picked this

    初请失业金人数降至194,000逼近历史低点，同时非农就业仅增29,000，这一分化指向美联储在通胀与就业间的平衡。

10月21日周三
  2. ForexLive49

    Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino warns of rising inflation risks as Japan approaches 2% target

    Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himimo Ryozo warned of upward inflation risks, saying potential inflation was close to the 2% target and stressing that delays in adjusting policy could allow inflation risks to materialize and harm the economy. Traders have almost ruled out action at the October meeting, but priced in about a 74% chance of raising interest rates again in December; the author believes that further tightening by the Bank of Japan is still on the agenda.

    Editorial Comment

    The hawkish statement by the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan has strengthened the market's expectations for subsequent policy normalization, but there is a significant time lag between traders' pricing of an interest rate hike in December and a hold on the policy in October. The foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to how this difference in policy expectations affects the revaluation of the yen carry trade, and the resulting indirect transmission of cross-asset fluctuations to gold.

    Why we picked this

    日本央行副行长警告延迟调整可能让通胀风险实现，与市场对12月加息约74%的定价形成对照。

  3. ForexLive63

    Japan Finance Minister Katayama says there are no differences with the central bank, wage-driven inflation approaches

    Japan's economy is at a tipping point toward shifting to persistent wage-driven inflation, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday, adding there were no differences between the government and the Bank of Japan. She pointed out that the current price rise is mainly driven by import costs, and tax cuts and family subsidies are aimed at easing cost of living pressure; a Reuters survey showed that most economists expect the central bank to raise interest rates to 1.50% in December.

    Editorial Comment

    Japan's Finance Minister stated that he had no differences with the central bank and emphasized that wage-driven inflation is approaching, which strengthened market expectations for the normalization of monetary policy. Most economists polled by Reuters expected to raise interest rates to 1.50% in December. This is echoed. For the yen, consistency in policy communication may reduce uncertainty, but attention needs to be paid to whether wage and price data can continue to verify this judgment, rather than relying solely on official statements.

    Why we picked this

    她称政府与日本央行无分歧且工资驱动通胀临近，呼应了多数经济学家对12月加息至1.50%的预期，可作为日元走势的政策面参考。

10月20日周二
  1. ForexLive41

    ForexLive 欧洲新闻汇总：油价上涨持续压制风险情绪

    WTI 原油上涨 2.16% 至 $100.65，受胡塞武装袭击沙特能源目标及美伊谈判停滞推动，继续压制风险情绪。英国失业率从 4.9% 降至 4.7%、就业增加 102K，强化英国央行加息预期。德国 10 月 ZEW 现状指数从 -47.1 升至 -35.9、预期指数降至 28.1；日本央行 10 月 30 日料维持利率 1.25% 不变，12 月加息概率约 73%。

10月19日周一
  1. ForexLive56

    Gold looks toward $4,200 again, but bond markets still hold the key

    Gold is trying to hit the $4,200 mark again, but bond markets will still have a decisive influence on the ensuing rebound. Hot inflation data last week led traders to predict that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December was about 90%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was still above 5%, putting pressure on the non-interest-bearing asset gold. Technically, $4,100 is the key support below. If it falls below, it may look towards the psychological barrier of $4,000; if it stands at $4,200, it needs to break through the $4,239 area.

    Editorial Comment

    Gold is testing high territory again, but the core variable is not technical but the bond market. Hot inflation has strengthened expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high, continuing to put opportunity cost pressure on non-interest-bearing gold. Traders should focus on observing the interaction between U.S. bond yields and key support and resistance, rather than simply pursuing price breakthroughs. In particular, they need to guard against the constraints on the sustainability of the rebound caused by rising yields.

    Why we picked this

    原文梳理了黄金反弹与美债收益率、美联储加息预期的联动，并给出 $4,100 和 $4,200 两个关键位的技术含义。

  2. ECB Press Releases40

    Frank Elderson: From climate and natural risks to economic resilience and competitiveness

    Frank Elderson, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, said at the Green Swan 2026 conference that climate and natural risks have become structural macro factors affecting growth, inflation and financial stability.

    Editorial Comment

    The Executive Committee of the European Central Bank defines climate and natural risks as structural macro factors that affect growth, inflation and financial stability, which prompts the market to incorporate non-traditional risks into long-term considerations of the euro area's policy path and asset pricing. Traders can pay attention to whether the policy uncertainty and financing channel obstacles faced by green investment will disrupt capital expenditure and productivity in the euro area, thereby affecting the mid- to long-term risk premium of the euro as well as gold’s hedging and real interest rate logic.

    Why we picked this

    欧央行执委将气候与自然风险界定为影响增长和通胀的结构性宏观因素，并点出政策不确定性与融资渠道是绿色投资的主要障碍。

10月17日周六
  2. VnExpress International Business43

    美元在黑市兑越南盾小幅上涨

    周六上午，美元在黑市兑越南盾上涨 0.15%，报 VND26,000。Vietcombank 维持汇率在 VND26,080 不变。全球美元周五下跌，美元指数跌 0.17% 至 101.87，预计周线跌 0.35%，或录得逾一个月来兑欧元和日元的首次周线下跌，反映美联储加息预期减弱与 AI 驱动股票抛售担忧。

  4. ECB Press Releases61

    Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, issued a statement at the IMFC meeting: The euro area economy remains resilient but inflation risks are tilted to the upside.

    Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, issued a statement at the IMFC meeting saying that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points again in September after June to respond to inflation driven up by energy shocks. She gave an outlook for overall inflation to rise to 3.8% and core inflation to 2.5% in September, with staff forecasting euro zone growth of 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026, 2027 and 2028 respectively.

    Editorial Comment

    European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde confirmed that interest rates will be raised by 25 basis points again in September to deal with energy-driven inflation, and gave an outlook of overall inflation of 3.8% and core inflation of 2.5%, indicating that the policy stance is still tight. This statement deserves attention for its support logic for the euro exchange rate and the potential impact of inflation resilience on the gold real interest rate environment; in the future, we need to pay attention to the balance between the weak economic growth forecast and policy tightening in the Eurozone.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行行长声明同时给出利率路径、通胀预测与数字欧元试点安排，是观察欧洲央行政策协调的第一手材料。

10月16日周五
  1. ForexLive57

    U.S. bond yields still fell 9.9 bps after PPI exceeded expectations, and the U.S. dollar fell across the board

    The U.S. PPI in September was 6.3%, higher than the expected 5.3%, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still fell 9.9 bps to 5.09%, and the U.S. dollar weakened across the board. There are rumors in the market that an AI-themed fund may have been liquidated. Its AUM may be $40 billion, with heavy holdings including Nebius, Bloom, Lumentum and CoreWeave. The decline in yields was interpreted as the market's concerns about AI-related credit risks, and attention will be paid to Federal Reserve Warsh's speech at the IMF roundtable.

    Editorial Comment

    The decline in U.S. bond yields coincided with the overall weakening of the U.S. dollar, breaking the normal reaction after inflation data exceeded expectations, indicating that the market's short-term trading focus turned to the credit risks caused by rumors of AI-themed fund liquidations. For gold, the weakening of the U.S. dollar constitutes a supporting variable, but it is more necessary to observe whether credit risks evolve into liquidity shocks, which often complicates gold's hedging logic. The follow-up speech by the Federal Reserve Warsh at the IMF roundtable is a key window for judging changes in policy expectations.

    Why we picked this

    原文把美债收益率下行与 AI 基金爆仓传闻并置，为观察 AI 交易风险如何传导到美债和美元提供了一个时点切面。

  2. VnExpress Kinh doanh50

    美国人逐渐习惯高通胀

    越来越多美国人开始把高通胀视为新常态，美国9月CPI同比上涨3.7%，通胀已连续65个月高于美联储2%的目标。纽约联储调查显示，一年期通胀预期升至3.9%，为三年多来最高。美联储官员担忧企业和消费者会长期调整行为，令通胀预期自我实现，削弱货币政策效果。

  3. CNBC Economy78

    Economists say red-hot PPI shows Fed's work isn't done yet

    U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in September. Wall Street economists accordingly raised their September core PCE forecast to 0.32% from 0.25% in August, and warned that the Federal Reserve still has the risk of continuing to raise interest rates. The core PCE annual rate is expected to rise to 3.1%; market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of this month is 29%, and the probability of raising interest rates at least once before December is 91%.

    Editorial Comment

    PPI exceeded expectations and led to an upward revision of the core PCE forecast. The market's pricing for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates has significantly increased. The core PCE forecast for September has been raised to 0.32%. For gold, rising interest rate expectations usually increase the opportunity cost of holding and constitute a headwind, while the US dollar may gain support from the strengthening of interest rate expectations. It is worth paying attention to whether subsequent core PCE data further confirms this logic.

    Why we picked this

    PPI超预期带动核心PCE预测上行，市场对美联储继续加息的定价明显抬升。

10月15日周四
  1. Seeking Alpha Market Currents73

    The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October falls below 30%

    The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 28 dropped from 50% to 27.1%. Market pricing has changed significantly in the past day.

    Editorial Comment

    The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October dropped from 50% to 27.1% in a single day, indicating that the market's pricing of the short-term tightening path has significantly cooled down. This change may ease the dollar's support from interest rate expectations and affect the holding cost logic of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold. Traders need to pay attention to whether subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials and economic data will further revise this expectation.

    Why we picked this

    CME FedWatch概率单日从50%降至27.1%，这一变化能帮助理解10月会议前市场加息预期的降温。

  2. Seeking Alpha Market Currents64

    Sticky CPI makes it difficult for the Fed to pause, and Pantheon Macro expects to raise interest rates once more before the end of the year

    Pantheon Macroeconomics said September CPI data left the Fed with little room for pause. Overall CPI rose 0.6%, in line with expectations, and core CPI rose 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than consensus expectations. The agency expects one more interest rate hike before the end of the year.

    Editorial Comment

    The higher-than-expected core CPI narrowed the Fed's room to pause interest rate hikes, and the market's expectations that interest rates will remain high or be further tightened may increase, which logically puts pressure on the non-interest-bearing asset gold. Traders will need to pay attention to subsequent Fed officials' interpretation of the data and the reaction of the yield curve.

    Why we picked this

    核心CPI高出预期0.1个百分点，压缩了美联储暂停空间，Pantheon据此判断年底前还会加息一次。

  3. ForexLive72

    U.S. retail sales increased 0.8% month-on-month in September, higher than expected 0.3%

    U.S. retail sales increased by 0.8% month-on-month in September, higher than market expectations of 0.3%. The previous value was revised up to 1.2%. However, after excluding gasoline and automobiles, it only increased by 0.2%, and the control group only increased by 0.1%, which was lower than expected; gasoline stations contributed 71% of the increase in US dollars in September. The author believes that overall consumer spending growth is not as strong as the headline, with gasoline and restaurants being the main contributors.

    Editorial Comment

    The overall US retail sales in September exceeded expectations, mainly driven by gasoline sales. After excluding gasoline and automobiles, growth slowed down significantly. The control group fell short of expectations, indicating that consumption momentum is not widespread. Traders need to pay attention to the disruption of this data to the Fed's policy expectations and whether the subsequent core retail component will continue to be weak, which may affect the short-term reaction of the U.S. dollar and gold.

    Why we picked this

    美国9月零售销售整体超预期，但剔除汽油和对照组后明显转弱，便于区分汽油推升与广泛消费动能。