经济学家称火热的PPI显示美联储工作尚未完成
Economists: Hot PPI shows Fed's work is not done
U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in September. Wall Street economists accordingly raised their September core PCE forecast to 0.32% from 0.25% in August, and warned that the Federal Reserve still has the risk of continuing to raise interest rates. The core PCE annual rate is expected to rise to 3.1%; market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of this month is 29%, and the probability of raising interest rates at least once before December is 91%.
PPI exceeded expectations and led to an upward revision of the core PCE forecast. The market's pricing for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates has significantly increased. The core PCE forecast for September has been raised to 0.32%. For gold, rising interest rate expectations usually increase the opportunity cost of holding and constitute a headwind, while the US dollar may gain support from the strengthening of interest rate expectations. It is worth paying attention to whether subsequent core PCE data further confirms this logic.
PPI超预期带动核心PCE预测上行，市场对美联储继续加息的定价明显抬升。
来源：CNBC Economy · cnbc.com