黄金短线或反弹，增长与美伊冲突担忧减退，焦点转向 FOMC
Gold could rebound in the near-term as growth and US strikes fears subside; eyes on the FOMC next
Giuseppe Dellamotta thinks gold may rebound in the short term as better-than-expected U.S. PMI eases growth concerns, worries about an Iran strike are dashed, and real yields fall. Gold is approaching the key support area of 3,885. If the price is in place, buyers may enter the market to rebound. If it falls below, it will look towards 3,500. The focus this week is Wednesday's FOMC decision, where the market is generally expected to keep the policy on hold and an unexpected interest rate hike will trigger a gold sell-off.
The author breaks down the short-term logic into two main lines: the fall in actual yields reduces the opportunity cost of gold holdings, while the disappearance of the risk premium in the Middle East takes away the previous safe-haven support. With the two hedging against each other, the gold price is more like oscillating within a range rather than choosing a direction unilaterally. The real pricing power this week falls on Wednesday's FOMC, where the consensus is to hold on unchanged. The risk point suggested by the author is that unexpected interest rate hikes may trigger selling pressure. For traders, rather than betting on direction in advance, it is better to track the effectiveness of key support areas and the actual market reaction once the resolution lands.
作者从实际收益率和中东风险切入，给出黄金短线的支撑阻力区域，并提示 FOMC 意外加息的抛售风险。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com