本周五大主要央行议息前瞻：市场定价充分，焦点转向 12 月政策信号
Major central banks take centre stage this week but will there be any surprises?
This week, RBNZ, BOC, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce intensive interest rate decisions, and the market has basically priced in. Traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike for the RBNZ, about an 83% chance of a BOC rate hike, about a 91% chance of the Fed keeping rates on hold, a roughly 90% chance of the European Central Bank keeping interest rates on hold, and a roughly 98% chance of the Bank of Japan keeping rates on hold. Press conferences by central bank governors and chairs will be in focus, with traders looking for signals of further action in December.
This week's five major central bank decisions themselves have been fully priced in by the market, and the real variable lies in the wording of each governor's policy path in December. For gold, the marginal revision of real interest rates and US dollar expectations is more worthy of tracking than the resolution outcome itself; on the foreign exchange side, attention should be paid to whether the policy differences between RBNZ, BOC and the Federal Reserve continue to converge.
本周五家主要央行密集议息，市场对即期决议定价充分，真正的看点在官员对 12 月政策路径的措辞，可能影响汇率与利率预期。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com