#美联储

黄金跌至一年低点：追加保证金放大美联储加息预期引发的跌势

黄金上周五跌超3%至每盎司3900美元下方，创一年新低，较历史高点回落约30%。德国商业银行认为科技股大跌可能引发追加保证金和被迫抛售避险资产，并预计贵金属将回升；油价走高、美国通胀数据坚挺以及市场对12月美联储加息的预期升温同样构成压力。美联储上周维持利率在3.75%至4.00%不变，两名官员投票支持立即加息。

After gold hits one-year low, most Wall Street analysts expect further declines

Spot gold closed at $3,874 per ounce at the end of October, the lowest in a year, down about 30% from its January high of $5,595. Of 16 experts surveyed by Kitco News, 10 expect gold prices to keep falling this week; FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich sees a possible drop to $3,300 within the year, while StoneX's Daniel Pavilonis sees $3,000.

美联储 Barkin 倾向渐进降息，通胀压力扩散

美联储 Barkin 表示倾向渐进式政策路径，因通胀压力正在扩散。

美联储穆萨莱姆称尽早加息可降低对整体经济的冲击风险

美联储官员穆萨莱姆表示，尽早加息可以降低对整体经济造成冲击的风险。该表态来自 Odaily星球日报的摘要报道，原文未提供更多细节。

纳斯达克因AI成本担忧重挫，美联储官员仍主张继续加息

纳斯达克综合指数10月30日下跌747.73点、跌幅2.86%，创2025年3月以来最差单月表现，市场对AI投入成本与回报的担忧升温。多位美联储官员同日发表偏鹰派表态，Logan认为至少还需两次25个基点加息，但美债收益率当日全线下行。现货黄金下跌约146.24美元、跌幅3.64%至3874.33美元，WTI原油升至102.89美元。

Fed's Musalem calls for near-term rate hikes, says current policy still too loose

Fed official Musalem called for rate hikes as soon as possible, citing that current policy remains too loose. The remarks come from an FXStreet report; the original text provides only the headline and summary, with no further details.

The Fed's hawks put pressure on gold, which fell below $3,886 and hit a new low for the year.

FXStreet reported that due to the continued pressure from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, gold fell below the support level of $3,886, hitting a new low for the year.

美联储巴尔金：逐步调整利率可行，政策方向“明确”

美联储巴尔金表示，逐步调整利率是可行的，政策方向“明确”。

Fed holds rates steady, two officials vote for a hike, so why is the dollar still flat?

FXStreet reports that the Fed kept rates unchanged at this meeting, two officials voted for a rate hike, and the dollar was broadly flat. The original text provides only the headline and summary, without giving the rate range, the identities of the voters, or the specific performance of the dollar index.

U.S. GDP grew by 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations, driven by AI investment and consumption

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on October 29 that GDP growth in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Consumer spending rose 3.8%, as corporate AI-related investments offset the impact of conflicts in the Middle East that pushed up oil prices. The Federal Reserve this week kept its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75%-4% and acknowledged that inflation remains high, and economists expect a rate hike in December.

Same story, featured below《美国三季度GDP初值3.4%高于3.2%预期》

Gold falls below 100 hour moving average, interest rate concerns suppress rebound

Spot gold fell below the 100-hour moving average of $4,026.50 and was trading at around $4,025, down about $41, or 1.03%. The author believes that higher U.S. bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and market expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve have made gold's rebound unsustainable; gold prices fell to $3,975 last Friday, the lowest since mid-July, and rebounded to above $4,000 at the beginning of this week.

美国 GDP 数据超预期，比特币价格跃升至 81,500 美元

比特币在周四美股开盘后反弹至 81,547 美元，因美国三季度 GDP 终值 3.4% 高于预期的 3.2%，PCE 同比涨幅 3.6% 符合预期。美联储在 FOMC 会议上维持利率在 3.75-4% 不变。分析师 Rekt Capital 认为，BTC/USD 需在周线收盘前收复 81,400 美元。

The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 fell below their 100-day moving averages as sellers gained control

The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index both fell about 1.5%, both falling below their 100-day moving average. The S&P 500 only fell about 0.50% and held key daily support. The 100-day moving average of the Nasdaq Composite Index is at 26254.52, and the 100-day moving average of the Nasdaq 100 Index is at 29559.42. The author regards these two moving averages as the boundary between long and short risks. The following focuses on the range of 25831 and 28822 to 28953. The reaction to the financial report intensified the polarization, with Microsoft falling slightly and Alphabet falling about 12% due to its AI investment narrative.

美联储按兵不动，Warsh 表态留有余地，交易员下调紧缩预期

TradingView 的这篇内容指出，美联储维持利率不变，Warsh 的表态留有余地，交易员因此下调了对紧缩的预期。材料只提供了标题，没有展开具体数据或政策细节。

欧洲时段综述：美股期货下挫，市场等待美国PCE通胀、欧洲央行决议与亚马逊财报

欧洲时段美股期货走弱，标普500期货跌0.4%、纳斯达克期货跌1.1%，Alphabet财报重新引发对AI支出的担忧。现货黄金跌1.1%至$4,018，10年期美债收益率降2个基点至5.02%，WTI原油跌0.8%至$101.95。市场接下来关注美国PCE通胀数据、欧洲央行利率决议以及亚马逊财报。

美联储按兵不动后 Alphabet 财报拖累 AI 交易

美联储将目标区间维持在 3.75%–4.00%，以 10–2 的投票结果按兵不动，主席 Warsh 称增长健康但通胀仍高，未承诺 12 月加息。

美国初请失业金人数194K，低于预期的199K

美国初请失业金人数录得194K，低于预期的199K，续请失业金人数降至170.1万，同样低于预期的172万。前值分别修正为195K和172.2万。初请与续请双双低于预期，显示裁员有限、失业者再就业加快，劳动力市场仍具韧性。

The initial value of U.S. GDP in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2%

The initial annualized GDP value of the United States in the third quarter was 3.4%, which was higher than the market expectation of 3.2% and slightly higher than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of 3.3%. Among the sub-items, investment contributed 3.27 percentage points, and consumer spending contributed about 2.52 percentage points. Net exports were a significant drag, and actual final sales only grew by 1.7%, lower than the 2.0% expectation. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, slightly above expectations of 2.4%.

Gold may rebound in the short term as concerns about growth and US-Iran conflict recede, and focus turns to FOMC

Giuseppe Dellamotta thinks gold may rebound in the short term as better-than-expected U.S. PMI eases growth concerns, worries about an Iran strike are dashed, and real yields fall. Gold is approaching the key support area of ​​3,885. If the price is in place, buyers may enter the market to rebound. If it falls below, it will look towards 3,500. The focus this week is Wednesday's FOMC decision, where the market is generally expected to keep the policy on hold and an unexpected interest rate hike will trigger a gold sell-off.

Foreign exchange market outlook for the week from October 26th to 30th

Preview of major central bank decisions for the week from October 26 to 30: The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to remain unchanged, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each. The United States will also release the core PCE price index and preliminary third-quarter GDP this week, and the market will focus on the resilience of inflation.

Preview of this week's five major central bank interest rates: market pricing is sufficient, focus turns to December policy signals

This week, RBNZ, BOC, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce intensive interest rate decisions, and the market has basically priced in. Traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike for the RBNZ, about an 83% chance of a BOC rate hike, about a 91% chance of the Fed keeping rates on hold, a roughly 90% chance of the European Central Bank keeping interest rates on hold, and a roughly 98% chance of the Bank of Japan keeping rates on hold. Press conferences by central bank governors and chairs will be in focus as traders look for signals of further action in December.

Bitcoin slides below $80,000 as traders reduce risk ahead of Fed meeting

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 in early Asian trading on Monday, falling below $80,000 as traders reduced risks ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Ethereum fell nearly 3% to above $2,300, XRP fell about 3% to $1.28, and other major coins were also generally lower. Traders are watching Wednesday's press conference to see whether Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh hints at a rate hike in December, which could tighten liquidity and further pressure cryptocurrencies and stocks.

Brazil ETF drops nearly 15% on Lula's victory

Brazil ETFs fell nearly 15% in Tokyo trading as Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff. Goldman Sachs said that under extreme circumstances, the U.S. dollar may rise by 10% against the Brazilian real, the Brazilian stock market may fall by 15%, and long-term government bond yields may rise by about 200 basis points. Meanwhile, gold is near three-month lows, oil prices opened lower after not upgrading over the weekend, and the market is focused on central bank meetings such as the Federal Reserve this week.

World gold prices continue to fall, hitting a three-month low

The world gold spot price closed down US$28 on October 23 to US$3,994 per ounce, the lowest since mid-July, with a cumulative decline of 4% that week. Rising oil prices triggered concerns about inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, which was the main reason for the decline in gold prices. The Federal Reserve policy meeting next week is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market is pricing in a 78% probability of raising interest rates in December.

堪萨斯城联储10月制造业指数增速放缓

10月堪萨斯城联储制造业综合指数为11，低于9月的14，增长步伐放缓。生产指数为16，前值为20。该数据由地区联储周四公布。

路透调查：近乎所有经济学家均认为美联储将跳过 10 月，并于 12 月加息

路透调查显示，近乎所有经济学家均认为美联储将跳过10月，并于12月加息。

美元在黑市兑越南盾小幅上涨

周六上午，美元在黑市兑越南盾上涨 0.15%，报 VND26,000。Vietcombank 维持汇率在 VND26,080 不变。全球美元周五下跌，美元指数跌 0.17% 至 101.87，预计周线跌 0.35%，或录得逾一个月来兑欧元和日元的首次周线下跌，反映美联储加息预期减弱与 AI 驱动股票抛售担忧。

U.S. bond yields still fell 9.9 bps after PPI exceeded expectations, and the U.S. dollar fell across the board

The U.S. PPI in September was 6.3%, higher than the expected 5.3%, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still fell 9.9 bps to 5.09%, and the U.S. dollar weakened across the board. There are rumors in the market that an AI-themed fund may have been liquidated. Its AUM may be $40 billion, with heavy holdings including Nebius, Bloom, Lumentum and CoreWeave. The decline in yields was interpreted as the market's concerns about AI-related credit risks, and attention will be paid to Federal Reserve Warsh's speech at the IMF roundtable.

亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 维持第三季度 3.6% 增速预估，消费者支出前景改善

亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 模型 10 月 15 日对 2026 年第三季度实际 GDP 增速（季调年化）的估算维持在 3.6%，与 10 月 8 日四舍五入后持平。

美国人逐渐习惯高通胀

越来越多美国人开始把高通胀视为新常态，美国9月CPI同比上涨3.7%，通胀已连续65个月高于美联储2%的目标。纽约联储调查显示，一年期通胀预期升至3.9%，为三年多来最高。美联储官员担忧企业和消费者会长期调整行为，令通胀预期自我实现，削弱货币政策效果。

Economists say red-hot PPI shows Fed's work isn't done yet

U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in September. Wall Street economists accordingly raised their September core PCE forecast to 0.32% from 0.25% in August, and warned that the Federal Reserve still has the risk of continuing to raise interest rates. The core PCE annual rate is expected to rise to 3.1%; market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of this month is 29%, and the probability of raising interest rates at least once before December is 91%.

The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October falls below 30%

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 28 dropped from 50% to 27.1%. Market pricing has changed significantly in the past day.

Sticky CPI makes it difficult for the Fed to pause, and Pantheon Macro expects to raise interest rates once more before the end of the year

Pantheon Macroeconomics said September CPI data left the Fed with little room for pause. Overall CPI rose 0.6%, in line with expectations, and core CPI rose 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than consensus expectations. The agency expects one more interest rate hike before the end of the year.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Index in October +20.9, +28.4 expected

The Philadelphia Fed business index in October was +20.9, lower than the expected +28.4 and the previous value was +37.8. Sub-indicators such as new orders, shipments and employment fell back but remained positive, while the price paid index fell while the price obtained index rose. The author believes that the market is beginning to worry about economic growth, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling and the yield curve flattening.

U.S. Treasury yields fall as investors flock to bonds amid selloff in tech stocks

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling more than 13 basis points to 5.056%, as investors turned to bonds for safety amid a selloff in technology stocks. U.S. wholesale prices rose 6.3% year-on-year in September, the largest increase since 2022, and CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, which was also higher than expected. The interest rate market expects to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points before the end of the year, and expectations have not changed much.

美联储调查显示燃料成本上升之际价格压力加剧

美联储调查显示，燃料成本上升之际价格压力正在加剧。

古尔斯比：AI引发的通胀“正在跳出自身车道”，Semafor报道

古尔斯比（Goolsbee）称，AI引发的通胀正在“跳出自身车道”。该表态由Semafor报道。

Rising U.S. inflation pushes up bets on Fed rate hikes, euro falls to 17-month low

The euro fell to a 17-month low as buoyant U.S. inflation data boosted bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

美联储古尔斯比警告：服务业通胀加剧，CPI 过热不可接受

美联储古尔斯比警告，在服务业通胀压力上升的背景下，过热的 CPI 数据不可接受。

美联储官员戴利称可能进一步加息 时机仍在考虑中

美联储官员戴利表示，进一步加息的可能性较大，但具体时机仍在考虑中。