全部动态黄金全部动态

Ripple 推出 24/7 股票等市场掉期服务，汇丰警告流动性不足

Ripple Prime 现已允许机构客户全天候交易挂钩 100 多个股票、大宗商品和货币市场的掉期，并以 RLUSD 稳定币作为抵押。汇丰银行称这一产品是演进而非革命，警告流动性有限可能制约大额交易，预期早期活动集中在做市商、自营交易员和对冲基金。周末流动性风险已有体现，近 $52 million 杠杆芯片股头寸在 10 分钟内被强制平仓。

英伟达宣布近 100 亿美元欧洲投资计划，拟入股德国四家 AI 初创公司

英伟达宣布一项近 100 亿美元的欧洲投资计划，并拟入股德国四家 AI 初创公司。

日本央行 Himino 释放加息信号

日本央行 Himino 释放准备提高借贷成本的信号，该表态为观察后续利率决策提供了直接线索。

The UK's September CPI report was released today, and the Bank of England's interest rate hike in November is almost fully priced.

The UK September CPI report was released today, and the market has almost completely priced in the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The market expects the overall CPI to rise by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI to rise by 2.8%, both higher than the previous values. Traders price the probability of an interest rate hike in November at about 96%, and the probability of continuous interest rate hikes in December at about 61%; the author believes that hotter data may strengthen expectations for further tightening after November, while softer data may prompt traders to reduce some aggressive expectations.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino warns of rising inflation risks as Japan approaches 2% target

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himimo Ryozo warned of upward inflation risks, saying potential inflation was close to the 2% target and stressing that delays in adjusting policy could allow inflation risks to materialize and harm the economy. Traders have almost ruled out action at the October meeting, but priced in about a 74% chance of raising interest rates again in December; the author believes that further tightening by the Bank of Japan is still on the agenda.

韩国 AI 基础设施商 Elice 股价剧烈波动，显示 AI 支出热潮遭更严格审视

South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice plunged 32% on its first day of trading before rebounding about 30% the next day, the latest sign that investors are taking a closer look at the AI ​​spending boom. The company’s IPO raised 201 billion won (about $151 million) and was priced at the upper end of its issuance range. Analysts believe that the market is shifting from looking only at the scale of capital expenditures to questioning investment returns, putting debt-driven expansion of neocloud manufacturers and Korean semiconductor stocks under greater pressure.

Citadel founder Griffin says AI is 'almost certainly' a bubble, even if demand signals are strong

Citadel founder Ken Griffin says investors are almost certainly in an AI bubble, but thinks real technological transformation and bubbles can coexist. On the same day, SpaceX disclosed that AI revenue was approximately US$7.6 billion, accounting for more than half of quarterly revenue; Super Micro raised its guidance, and Musk said that computing power was scarce, showing that demand is still strong. Griffin said he wished he had owned Amazon then, using a dot-com analogy and emphasized that the warning was about valuation, not demand.

The market expects the People’s Bank of China to set the USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.6779

Reuters estimates show the People's Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.6779. In the past year, the central bank has set the daily central parity rate weaker than market expectations. Since October, the central parity rate has accelerated and narrowed the gap with expectations, indicating that it has relaxed its resistance to RMB appreciation. The gap between the fixed price and market expectations remains a clear window for observing the central bank's tolerance for RMB appreciation.

Japan's exports in September increased by 16.7% year-on-year, growing for 13 consecutive months. Supported by demand for AI chips, the trade deficit narrowed

Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed that exports increased by 16.7% year-on-year in September, increasing for 13 consecutive months, mainly driven by demand for semiconductors and AI-related products and price increases by companies. Imports increased by 18.9% due to delays in the arrival of crude oil due to oil tankers detouring through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; the trade deficit narrowed to ¥53.66 billion (approximately US$3.4 billion), still higher than the expected ¥18.1 billion. The Japanese government expects crude oil purchases in October to return to the same period last year, which may push up import bills.

Japan Finance Minister Katayama says there are no differences with the central bank, wage-driven inflation approaches

Japan's economy is at a tipping point toward shifting to persistent wage-driven inflation, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday, adding there were no differences between the government and the Bank of Japan. She pointed out that the current price rise is mainly driven by import costs, and tax cuts and family subsidies are aimed at easing cost of living pressure; a Reuters survey showed that most economists expect the central bank to raise interest rates to 1.50% in December.

路透调查：近乎所有经济学家均认为美联储将跳过 10 月，并于 12 月加息

路透调查显示，近乎所有经济学家均认为美联储将跳过10月，并于12月加息。

黄金跌破 $4,150，高油价强化美联储进一步收紧预期

黄金跌破 $4,150。高企的油价强化了美联储进一步收紧政策的前景，令金价承压。

黄金在收益率下降中承压，霍尔木兹外交引发油价反转

黄金在收益率下行的情况下仍承压，霍尔木兹外交进展带动油价反转。

Musk announces that SpaceX and Tesla have formed a special committee to formally discuss a merger

Musk announced that SpaceX and Tesla have formed a special committee to formally explore the merger of the two companies.

Same story, featured below《马斯克称SpaceX与Tesla合并是好主意但远未确定，需50% Tesla股份支持》

Super Micro's preliminary revenue exceeded expectations by about US$4 billion, and its stock price rose 14% after hours

Super Micro released preliminary third-quarter financial results ahead of schedule, predicting revenue of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, higher than previous guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion and analysts' expectations of about $15 billion.

UBS proposes three tests for AI trading, Meta kicks off earnings season for large technology stocks

UBS proposes three tests for AI deals, arguing that big tech companies will need to demonstrate this earnings season that AI spending is turning into revenue, profits and returns. Meta will open big tech earnings after the U.S. close on Wednesday, with three tests including core business health, AI monetization beyond adoption and real returns on infrastructure spending. UBS expects strong fundamentals in the third quarter, but high expectations may cause company-specific fluctuations, and remains optimistic about hyperscale manufacturers and high-quality semiconductor hardware companies.

Musk said the merger of SpaceX and Tesla is a good idea but is far from certain and requires the support of 50% of Tesla shares

Musk said on the SpaceX earnings call that a merger with Tesla would be a good idea but is far from certain, and that any deal would require the support of shareholders including 50% of all Tesla shares. He also said that demand for AI computing is likely to remain strong, with older Nvidia H100 chips now renting out more than new ones, and warned that the shortage of computing power needed to develop superintelligence could last for a long time.

日本9月出口大幅不及预期，增速放缓至16.7%

日本9月出口同比增长16.7%，大幅低于市场预期。路透调查分析师此前预计出口增长20.1%。

ForexLive 欧洲新闻汇总：油价上涨持续压制风险情绪

WTI 原油上涨 2.16% 至 $100.65，受胡塞武装袭击沙特能源目标及美伊谈判停滞推动，继续压制风险情绪。英国失业率从 4.9% 降至 4.7%、就业增加 102K，强化英国央行加息预期。德国 10 月 ZEW 现状指数从 -47.1 升至 -35.9、预期指数降至 28.1；日本央行 10 月 30 日料维持利率 1.25% 不变，12 月加息概率约 73%。

Wall Street's AI rebound ebbs, South Korean AI data center company Elice plunges more than 30% on first day of listing

The U.S. AI rebound encountered obstacles in Asia and Europe, with South Korean AI data center company Elice plunging more than 30% on its first day of listing. Other data center companies such as Nvidia-backed Firmus have canceled IPOs, and Gartner analysts believe the AI ​​race could eventually shrink to a duopoly.

通用汽车（GM）公布 Q3 业绩，收窄 FY26 展望，新增 $20B 股票回购

通用汽车（GM）公布 Q3 业绩，收窄 FY26 展望，并新增 $20B 股票回购。该动态由 TradingView Ideas 发布。

JP Morgan predicts that Bitcoin will have an annualized return of 10% over the next ten years, outperforming U.S. stocks, bonds and gold

In its long-term capital market assumptions report, JP Morgan predicts that Bitcoin will have an annualized return of 10% over the next ten years, with its baseline forecast outperforming its returns on U.S. stocks, bonds and gold. The bank also gave Bitcoin’s annualized return between bull and bear ranges of -9.7% to 17%, and maintained a cautious attitude, believing that volatility and unstable asset correlations still prevent it from being widely included in investment portfolios.

Weakness in stock markets could curb demand for Bitcoin after Bitcoin ETF saw biggest net inflows in a month

Bitcoin has fallen about 1.1% in the past 24 hours, and the spot U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $527 million on Monday, the largest in a month. BlackRock IBIT attracted US$665 million in a single day, the largest single-day inflow in more than a year, while Fidelity and Grayscale experienced net outflows. QCP Capital analysts believe that further weakness in U.S. stocks may be transmitted to the crypto market, and if it continues, it may threaten the $80,000 support level; the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $103 million on the same day, the fourth consecutive day of outflows.

Indian rupee's rebound after RBI intervention may be temporary, soaring oil prices weigh on

The Indian rupee rebounded sharply last week after the Reserve Bank of India passed foreign exchange intervention and regulatory measures, but the article believes that rising oil prices and foreign capital outflows made this rebound unsustainable. Technically, the USD/INR daily line has received buying orders near the support of 95.10. The upper resistance is at 96.10, and the 4-hour resistance is at 95.53; if it falls below 95.10, it will look towards 94.00. Short-term catalysts include U.S. initial jobless claims on Thursday and U.S. Flash PMIs on Friday.

RTX 上调2026年预测，航空航天与国防需求推动积压订单创纪录

RTX 上调2026年预测，航空航天与国防需求推动积压订单创纪录。

GE Aerospace 公布 2026 年第三季度财报：营收 $14.12B，利润 $2.81B，调整后 EPS $2.25，上调 2026 年指引

GE Aerospace 公布 2026 年第三季度业绩，营收 $14.12B，利润 $2.81B，调整后 EPS $2.25，并上调 2026 年业绩指引。

AI 抛售加深，市场紧张情绪持续

The deepening sell-off in AI stoked market jitters, with South Korea's KOSPI down nearly 4% and CoreWeave down 4% in pre-market trading on U.S. stocks. Bitcoin has retreated slightly over the past 24 hours but is still holding on to $81,000, while gold is down nearly 1% to just over $4,110 an ounce. Brent and WTI crude rose 2% each, while the long-term U.S. Treasury bond ETF TLT rose 0.5%, attracting defensive funds.

Bitcoin drops to around $81,400, Asian chip stocks fall, options traders seek downside protection

Bitcoin fell to about $81,400 on Tuesday, down 0.5% since midnight UTC, despite an inflow of $526.6 million into a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF on Monday, the largest single-day inflow in nearly a month. South Korea's Kospi index fell 3.73% to its lowest close since April 7. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fell, and worries about AI spending dragged down chip stocks; Deribit options put volume was more than twice that of call options, and the $80,000 put option was the most active on October 30, showing traders seeking downside protection.

Stocks rebound after AI sell-off, credit pressure on CoreWeave, Oracle lingers

AI stocks rebounded on Monday, but pressure on the credit side persisted, with CoreWeave ending lower, its 2032 bond yield yielding about 14.9%, and Oracle's five-year CDS rising to 315 basis points. Goldman Sachs points to divergence in AI-related high-yield bonds, with neocloud and cutting-edge lab companies at the center of funding cost debate. Rosenberg called Oracle the canary in the coal mine, and a downgrade to junk would be the clearest sign of contagion.

Walmart 与 Sam's Club 推出联合会员，加码配送与汽油折扣

Walmart 周二宣布推出联合会员，将 Walmart+ 与 Sam's Club Plus 合并，年费 $120，比分别购买两个年度会员便宜近 $100。该会员提供 Sam's Club 仓储店访问、两家门店免费配送、Peacock 或 Paramount+ 订阅、加油优惠及符合条件的 2% Sam's Club 现金返还。

South Korea's IPO failure becomes latest in a series of global AI deal disappointments

The failure of South Korea's IPO became the latest case in a series of disappointments in global AI deals. In October alone, the IPOs of three data center providers have been shelved. These projects have been supported by Nvidia, Blackstone and SoftBank. Investors are not convinced about the sustainability of capital expenditures.

South Korean data center Elice's IPO fell more than 30% on the first day, and Brent crude oil exceeded $111

South Korean data center company Elice closed at 60,500 won on its first day of listing, down more than 30% from the issue price of 90,500 won. Previously, retail subscriptions were oversubscribed by more than 400 times; the IPO raised approximately $151 million and was valued at approximately $755 million. South Korea's KOSPI fell nearly 4% on the day, and CoreWeave's US stocks fell another 3% before the market opened; Brent crude oil rose above $111, the highest since May.

JP Morgan predicts Bitcoin will outperform U.S. stocks and gold over the next decade

J.P. Morgan Asset Management released a 2027 long-term capital market assumptions report, predicting that Bitcoin will have an annual return of 10% in the next ten years, higher than the 7.5% of U.S. large-cap stocks and the 5.5% of gold. The report stated that Bitcoin is not currently regarded as a portfolio diversification tool because its market correlation is unstable, but it is regarded as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing; the bull market scenario has an annualized return of 16.6%, and the bear market scenario has an annualized loss of 11.2%.

Same story, featured below《摩根大通预计比特币未来十年年化回报率10%，跑赢美股、债券和黄金》

UK ILO unemployment rate in August was 4.7%, lower than expected 5.0%

The UK's ILO unemployment rate in August was 4.7%, lower than expected 5.0% and the previous value of 4.9%; data on employment changes in August, average weekly earnings and wage changes in September were also released.

IMF与世界银行会议三大要点

The annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank were held in Bangkok. Global finance ministers listed debt, artificial intelligence and trade imbalances as the biggest risks. China is no longer the primary concern. Ukraine has returned to the spotlight, Russia's participation in the meeting has aroused dissatisfaction in Europe, and the G7 announced that it will provide 260 million euros ($300 million) to fund the repair of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The U.S. federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion, and the IMF warned that growth is unsustainable, but U.S. advisers refuted that its forecasts were inaccurate.

Reuters expects PBOC to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.6813

Reuters expects the PBOC to set the USD/CNY reference exchange rate at 6.6813, with the central parity rate in recent months turning from a long-term weaker than expected to accelerating strength and narrowing the gap with expectations. The central parity rate increased for eight consecutive trading days in September, the longest since 2023, and hit the strongest level since February 2023; the onshore RMB was the strongest since January 2023, and the offshore RMB hit levels since July 2022. The latest central parity rate is still more than 500 points lower than expected in a Reuters survey, indicating that the central bank is allowing appreciation at its own pace rather than letting it go completely.

今日主要事件：加拿大CPI报告

今日美国时段将公布加拿大CPI报告，市场预期CPI同比上涨3.2%（前值3.0%），加拿大央行更关注的Trimmed Mean CPI同比为1.9%（前值1.9%）。市场目前定价加拿大央行下次会议加息概率为35%，12月加息概率为68%。欧洲时段无议程；油价因特朗普豁免部分俄罗斯制裁有所回落，但乌克兰袭击能源基础设施令风险溢价仍高，未缓和前油价不太可能从高位大幅回落。

Gold looks toward $4,200 again, but bond markets still hold the key

Gold is trying to hit the $4,200 mark again, but bond markets will still have a decisive influence on the ensuing rebound. Hot inflation data last week led traders to predict that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December was about 90%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was still above 5%, putting pressure on the non-interest-bearing asset gold. Technically, $4,100 is the key support below. If it falls below, it may look towards the psychological barrier of $4,000; if it stands at $4,200, it needs to break through the $4,239 area.

10月19日纽约上午10点外汇期权到期

EUR/USD 1.1200 是10月19日纽约上午10点到期中的唯一关键行权价，距现货约30个点，若盘中走低可能锚定该价位。EUR/USD 1.1265 处已有 €4.1 billion 到期兴趣，可能成为明日到期焦点。整体方向仍主要由美债收益率和美元情绪主导，到期本身难以推动持续行情。

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi denies accusations of weak yen and high interest rates

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has denied outside criticism that she has caused a weak yen and high interest rates, and said she will build confidence in the yen by building a strong economy. During her administration, Japanese government bond yields rose to multi-decade highs and the yen fell to its lowest level since 1986, prompting Tokyo and Washington to enter the market to support the yen. She also said that the amount of government bond issuance will be appropriately controlled, saying that the total amount of government bond issuance in 2026 will remain unchanged from the original budget plan.