英国9月CPI报告今日公布，11月英央行加息几乎完全定价
Heads up: UK September CPI inflation report due today, BOE rate hike for November almost fully priced in
The UK September CPI report was released today, and the market has almost completely priced in the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The market expects the overall CPI to rise by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI to rise by 2.8%, both higher than the previous values. Traders price the probability of an interest rate hike in November at about 96%, and the probability of continuous interest rate hikes in December at about 61%; the author believes that hotter data may strengthen expectations for further tightening after November, while softer data may prompt traders to reduce some aggressive expectations.
The UK's September CPI data will verify the market's almost complete pricing of the Bank of England's interest rate hike in November. The market expects both overall and core inflation to be higher than the previous value. This means that if the data is higher than expected, it may strengthen expectations for further tightening after November. If the data is lower than expected, it may prompt traders to reduce some aggressive bets. For sterling and gold traders, the key is not the single rate hike itself, but how the data changes the market's marginal pricing of the policy path in December and beyond.
原文给出9月CPI预期和11月、12月加息隐含概率，可据此观察数据公布后英央行紧缩预期的边际变化。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com