路透预计 PBOC 将 USD/CNY 参考汇率设定在 6.6813
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.6813 – Reuters estimate
Reuters expects the PBOC to set the USD/CNY reference exchange rate at 6.6813, with the central parity rate in recent months turning from a long-term weaker than expected to accelerating strength and narrowing the gap with expectations. The central parity rate increased for eight consecutive trading days in September, the longest since 2023, and hit the strongest level since February 2023; the onshore RMB was the strongest since January 2023, and the offshore RMB hit levels since July 2022. The latest central parity rate is still more than 500 points lower than expected in a Reuters survey, indicating that the central bank is allowing appreciation at its own pace rather than letting it go completely.
The central parity rate has been continuously raised and hit a multi-year high, indicating that the central bank is shifting from restraining appreciation to conditionally guiding it, which has enhanced expectations for the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. For the gold market, the strengthening of the RMB may affect the holding cost of domestic gold and the price difference between domestic and foreign prices, so we need to pay attention to changes in physical demand; for foreign exchange traders, we should focus on observing whether the deviation between the subsequent central parity and market expectations continues to narrow, and the sustainability of the central bank's guidance.
中间价从近一年的弱于预期转为9月连续上调并创多年新高，表明央行正从抑制升值转向有条件引导升值，而非完全放手。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com