取引日誌 — 金・為替日報と売買記録

The same variable that carried Friday has now deteriorated twice more.

Friday close (+1.47%) was credited to Trump ruling out a pre-midterm strike. Within 24 hours he said he may strike, and then over the weekend the IRGC declared a supertanker exploded after hitting mines in Hormuz while the UKMTO reported a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile as it exited the strait — while the UAE coast guard pulled 22 Asian crew from a separate burning vessel. Three separate maritime incidents in roughly 36 hours. The two reports have not been matched to a common hull, and neither is independently confirmed — but the direction of travel is one-way, and it is the one variable the close was explicitly resting on.

The bond story flipped - and gold did not.

The morning brief led with yields easing and gold following. Friday closed the opposite way. The 10Y actually rose 1.7bp to 5.24% and the 2Y rose 3.8bp to 4.79%, yet spot gold settled 4193.84, +1.47% near the top of the day. The yield-gold correlation that explained Thursday broke on Friday.