How to Read the COT Report for Gold: Managed Money, Producers and What Extremes Mean

Every Friday the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes a snapshot of who holds positions in futures markets, including COMEX gold. It is free, it covers the largest gold futures market in the world, and most retail traders never look at it.

What the COT report is

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report breaks down open positions in each futures market by type of trader. For gold, the version most traders use is the Disaggregated report, which splits positions into four groups:

Positions too small to report are shown as "non-reportable".

When it comes out

The data is collected as of Tuesday and published on Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time. By the time you read it, it is three days old. If gold moved sharply on Wednesday or Thursday, the report will not show how positions changed.

When a US government shutdown or holiday interrupts publication, the CFTC catches up afterwards, sometimes publishing several weeks at once.

How to read it

Focus on Managed Money net position: longs minus shorts.

1. Direction of change. Funds adding to longs while the price rises confirms the trend. Funds cutting longs while the price rises means someone else is buying.
2. Extremes. When managed money net longs are near the top of their multi-year range, the market is crowded. A surprise that goes against them can cause a fast drop as they exit.
3. Divergences. Price making new highs while funds hold fewer longs than at the last high suggests the rally is driven by other buyers, such as physical or official demand.

What the COT report cannot do

It cannot time a trade. Crowded positioning can stay crowded for months while the price keeps rising. Use it to judge how fragile a move is, not when it will end.

It also only covers futures. A large share of gold trading happens over the counter in London, in ETFs and in Asian physical markets, none of which the report sees.

A simple weekly routine

1. Friday after 3:30 p.m. ET, note managed money net position and its change on the week.
2. Compare with the price change from Tuesday to Tuesday.
3. Write one sentence in your trading journal: who added, who cut, and whether positioning makes the current move more or less fragile.

Questions traders ask

Where do I find the gold COT data? On the CFTC website under Commitments of Traders. Gold is listed under COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.) in the disaggregated futures report.

Do the commercials "know" something? Producers are hedging their business, not forecasting. Their large short position is normal and not a bearish signal by itself.

Is the futures-only or futures-and-options version better? Most traders use futures-only for simplicity. The combined report adjusts option positions to their futures equivalent.