Gold Trading Journal — Real Trades & Market Insights/#nonfarm-payrolls

#nonfarm-payrolls

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6 days ago

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4 articles and trading notes about #nonfarm-payrolls, newest first. Each one is written from a real gold trade or a real market day, so start with the most recent and work back.

ArticleNov 6

Gold Price Analysis After NFP: Hike Odds +10, Gold -0.47%

October payrolls printed 165K against a 65K consensus, unemployment fell to 4.1% and wages rose 0.4% m/m. Gold broke its $4,061 neckline within minutes and printed $4,025.87, then closed at $4,066.11 — down only 0.47%, back above the line. In the same session December hike odds moved from Thursday's 68% handle to 77-78%, a 10-point repricing. Ten points of odds bought 0.4% of price, and four layers explain the gap: an expectation already paid for in October, a real-rate move of just 6bp, physical bids sitting at $4,000-4,030, and a 102 ceiling on the dollar. The piece also lays out three conditions that would void the call, the first being a hot CPI print on Nov 10, explains why a weekly gain of 4.63% matters more than a daily drop of 0.47%, and shows why the 6bp move in the 10-year yield, not the payrolls headline, set the size of the drawdown.

#xauusd#gold-price#dollar-index

ArticleNov 6

Gold Forecast After NFP: 165K vs 65K, Why Only -0.4%

October payrolls came in at 165K against a 65K consensus, unemployment fell to 4.1% and wages rose 0.4% m/m. Gold broke its $4,061 neckline within minutes and printed $4,025.87, then closed down only 0.47% — back above the neckline. The real story is the gap: December hike odds went from 68% to 77-78%, up 10 points, and gold refused to pay for it. Here is who is holding $4,000-4,030.

#xauusd#gold-price#support-resistance

ArticleNov 5

Gold Before Payrolls: $4,061 Support, $4,100 Pivot, Three Setups

Gold left a $74 upper wick at $4,146.89 on Nov 5 and closed at $4,072.60, then lost $4,080 in Asia. This maps $4,061, $4,100 and $4,146 using the daily candle and Fibonacci retracement, and lays out three executable setups for a hot print, a soft print and a range — each with entry, stop, target and the line that voids it.

#xauusd#support-resistance#gold-price

ArticleNov 5

Gold's $4,146 Rejection: Why the Blue Wave Rally Stalled Before Payrolls

Gold touched $4,146.89 on Nov 5 and closed at $4,072.60, leaving a $74 upper wick on the same day US stocks cratered. This piece breaks down the four transmission chains behind the rejection, why safe-haven flows refused to chase bullion, and what the 21:30 CST payrolls print actually decides.

#xauusd#gold-price#dollar-index

#nonfarm-payrolls

Gold Price Analysis After NFP: Hike Odds +10, Gold -0.47%

Gold Forecast After NFP: 165K vs 65K, Why Only -0.4%

Gold Before Payrolls: $4,061 Support, $4,100 Pivot, Three Setups

Gold's $4,146 Rejection: Why the Blue Wave Rally Stalled Before Payrolls

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