Gold Trading Journal — Real Trades & Market Insights/#central-bank-demand

#central-bank-demand

posts

articles

3 days ago

latest

2 articles and trading notes about #central-bank-demand, newest first. Each one is written from a real gold trade or a real market day, so start with the most recent and work back.

ArticleNov 10

Gold Before CPI: 82% Hike Odds vs 4103 Support — Can It Hold?

Spot gold closed the pre-CPI session at $4,117.24, down 0.52% on a $33.20 range, with a high of $4,141.12, a low of $4,107.92 and a prior close of $4,138.81. December hike odds reached 82% per CME FedWatch, yet price fell only $21.57, and this piece walks the six transmission links behind that gap: October payrolls at 165K with 84K of upward revisions, hike pricing that already discounts the move, real rates pushed by sliding oil, a dollar index at 101.657, 24 consecutive months of Chinese central bank accumulation to 78.30 million ounces, and a $450 gap between Goldman's cut and UBS's hold. A $21.57 decline on fourteen points of repricing is the detail worth recording. The piece then maps three CPI scenarios for the 22:30 print against the $4,103 four-hour 200 SMA and the $4,180/$4,182 dual-source ceiling, with a 2.7:1 long and explicit invalidation.

#xauusd#gold-price#cpi

ArticleNov 6

Gold Price Analysis After NFP: Hike Odds +10, Gold -0.47%

October payrolls printed 165K against a 65K consensus, unemployment fell to 4.1% and wages rose 0.4% m/m. Gold broke its $4,061 neckline within minutes and printed $4,025.87, then closed at $4,066.11 — down only 0.47%, back above the line. In the same session December hike odds moved from Thursday's 68% handle to 77-78%, a 10-point repricing. Ten points of odds bought 0.4% of price, and four layers explain the gap: an expectation already paid for in October, a real-rate move of just 6bp, physical bids sitting at $4,000-4,030, and a 102 ceiling on the dollar. The piece also lays out three conditions that would void the call, the first being a hot CPI print on Nov 10, explains why a weekly gain of 4.63% matters more than a daily drop of 0.47%, and shows why the 6bp move in the 10-year yield, not the payrolls headline, set the size of the drawdown.

#xauusd#gold-price#nonfarm-payrolls

#central-bank-demand

Gold Before CPI: 82% Hike Odds vs 4103 Support — Can It Hold?

Gold Price Analysis After NFP: Hike Odds +10, Gold -0.47%

Related Tags

Hot Tags

Popular