高盛再添2027年3月美联储加息预期的三个理由
Three reasons Goldman has added another Fed rate hike to its forecast, higher and higher!
Goldman Sachs meramalkan dalam laporan Selasa bahawa Rizab Persekutuan akan menaikkan kadar faedah sebanyak 25 mata asas pada mesyuarat 8-9 Disember dan 25 mata asas lagi pada Mac 2027. Pemotongan kadar faedah pertama dijangka ditangguhkan ke Disember 2027. Ini membatalkan penghakiman Goldman Sachs pada akhir Oktober bahawa ia membatalkan kenaikan kadar faedah Mac. Inflasi panas tiga bulan berturut-turut adalah punca langsung. Kenaikan selanjutnya dalam harga minyak atau inflasi yang kukuh pada bulan Januari mungkin membawa kenaikan kadar faedah ketiga ke hadapan ke Januari.
Goldman has now reversed its late-October judgment to remove the March rate hike, reinstated its expectation for a March 2027 rate hike, and delayed the timing of the first cut. The core driver is three consecutive months of firmer inflation, while further oil price gains or strong January inflation could also bring the hike forward. For the gold and forex markets, this revision to policy expectations will affect the market's pricing logic for the Fed's interest-rate cycle, and traders need to closely track expectation shifts driven by inflation and oil price data.
文章梳理高盛上调美联储加息预期的通胀与油价逻辑，并呈现其对美元、美债、股市和黄金的跨资产影响。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com