高盛再添2027年3月美联储加息预期的三个理由
Three reasons Goldman has added another Fed rate hike to its forecast, higher and higher!
In a Tuesday report, Goldman Sachs expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 bp at its December 8–9 meeting and by another 25 bp in March 2027, while pushing its expectation for the first rate cut to December 2027. This reverses Goldman's late-October judgment to call off the March rate hike. Three consecutive months of hotter-than-expected inflation are the direct cause; a further rise in oil prices or strong January inflation could bring the third hike forward to January.
Goldman has now reversed its late-October judgment to remove the March rate hike, reinstated its expectation for a March 2027 rate hike, and delayed the timing of the first cut. The core driver is three consecutive months of firmer inflation, while further oil price gains or strong January inflation could also bring the hike forward. For the gold and forex markets, this revision to policy expectations will affect the market's pricing logic for the Fed's interest-rate cycle, and traders need to closely track expectation shifts driven by inflation and oil price data.
文章梳理高盛上调美联储加息预期的通胀与油价逻辑，并呈现其对美元、美债、股市和黄金的跨资产影响。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com