高盛再添2027年3月美联储加息预期的三个理由
Three reasons Goldman has added another Fed rate hike to its forecast, higher and higher!
Goldman Sachs memperkirakan dalam laporan hari Selasa bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan 8-9 Desember dan 25 basis poin lainnya pada Maret 2027. Pemotongan suku bunga pertama diperkirakan akan ditunda hingga Desember 2027. Hal ini membalikkan penilaian Goldman Sachs pada akhir Oktober yang membatalkan kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Maret. Inflasi panas selama tiga bulan berturut-turut adalah penyebab langsungnya. Kenaikan harga minyak lebih lanjut atau inflasi yang tinggi di bulan Januari mungkin akan mendorong kenaikan suku bunga ketiga di bulan Januari.
Goldman has now reversed its late-October judgment to remove the March rate hike, reinstated its expectation for a March 2027 rate hike, and delayed the timing of the first cut. The core driver is three consecutive months of firmer inflation, while further oil price gains or strong January inflation could also bring the hike forward. For the gold and forex markets, this revision to policy expectations will affect the market's pricing logic for the Fed's interest-rate cycle, and traders need to closely track expectation shifts driven by inflation and oil price data.
文章梳理高盛上调美联储加息预期的通胀与油价逻辑，并呈现其对美元、美债、股市和黄金的跨资产影响。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com