Dolar AS menguat secara keseluruhan, posisi teknis utama apa yang harus kita perhatikan?
Dolar AS menguat terhadap mata uang utama lainnya, karena penilaian pasar terhadap kebijakan Fed yang lebih hawkish mendorong imbal hasil obligasi 2 tahun naik sekitar 20 basis poin, dan imbal hasil obligasi 10 tahun menyentuh 5,0%. Pasar saat ini memperkirakan kemungkinan 14% kenaikan suku bunga sebesar 50 basis poin di bulan Desember, dan kemungkinan 70% kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Januari. Dalam video tersebut, penulis menganalisis level teknis EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD dan AUD/USD, dan membahas apakah resistance awal dapat berubah menjadi support.
Editorial Comment
The core driver of the broad dollar strength comes from rates: the 2-year yield rose about 20 basis points in a single day and the 10-year hit 5.0%, combined with market pricing of a 70% probability of another hike in January, indicating this round of dollar strength has fundamental support rather than being driven purely by sentiment. For traders, what is worth watching is the validity of former resistance turning into support across major currency pairs, and whether short-end rates and the dollar index can stay in sync, which determines whether the current move is a trend continuation or a temporary correction.
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