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#宏观数据
11月2日周一
  1. ForexLive58

    France's economic contraction coupled with debt concerns may drag down the euro zone's recovery

    The Eurozone's GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026 was 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, slowing down from 0.6% in the previous quarter, and France contracted by 0.1% in the same period. French public debt is close to 120% of GDP, and the budget deficit is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP in 2026. The 10-year government bond yield rose above 5.14% in October, the highest since 2002, and the interest rate gap between France and Germany has widened to the widest in 15 years. On October 30, Fitch lowered France's rating outlook from stable to negative, maintaining its A+ rating and predicting that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 115.7% in 2025 to approximately 124% in 2028.

    Editorial Comment

    France's GDP contraction in the third quarter combined with high debt and deficit, the 10-year government bond yield exceeded 5.14%, the spread between France and Germany widened to the widest in 15 years, and Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook, indicating that the market is pricing in France's fiscal risks. This transmission path will weaken the recovery momentum of the euro area and make it more difficult for the European Central Bank to make policy trade-offs between stabilizing growth and controlling inflation. Follow-up attention needs to be paid to the progress of the French budget, the actions of rating agencies and the trend of the Franco-German spread. The spillover effects may indirectly affect the gold pricing environment through the euro exchange rate.

    Why we picked this

    文章梳理法国经济收缩、债务与国债收益率攀升的传导路径，帮助读者理解其对欧元区复苏与欧洲央行政策取舍的影响。

  2. ForexLive54

    The final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 52.7 in October, and the accelerated rise in input prices increased pressure on the European Central Bank.

    The final value of the euro zone's manufacturing PMI in October was 52.7, lower than the initial value of 52.4 and September's 52.9. The output index fell from 53.6 to 52.8, a four-month low. Manufacturing in France and Italy returned to contraction, with domestic political uncertainty in France the main drag. Input prices rose at the fastest pace since May and inflationary pressures rose for the second consecutive month, posing a problem for the European Central Bank's December decision.

    Editorial Comment

    The final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was revised down and output hit a four-month low. France and Italy returned to contraction, indicating that recovery momentum is weakening. At the same time, input prices rose at the fastest rate since May, and inflationary pressures increased for the second consecutive month. The ECB's December decision faces a dilemma between growth and inflation. For traders, the focus is not on the absolute value of PMI, but on how the divergence between the price component and the growth component affects the market's pricing of the ECB's policy path, which is then transmitted to the euro and gold.

    Why we picked this

    欧元区10月制造业PMI终值回落至52.7，投入价格创5月以来最快涨速，为欧央行12月决议前的通胀判断提供参考。

  4. ForexLive58

    日本央行重申通胀已站稳2%，为何仍按兵不动

    日本央行上周维持利率在1.25%不变后，再次强调基础通胀已升至与其2%目标相符的水平。最新季度展望报告将2027财年核心通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%，剔除生鲜食品和能源的核心核心通胀预测从2.6%上调至2.7%。日本央行仍希望评估此前加息对金融状况的传导效果，长期实际利率近期已在上升，这被视为不急于行动的理由之一。

  5. ForexLive74

    黄金跌至一年低点：追加保证金放大美联储加息预期引发的跌势

    黄金上周五跌超3%至每盎司3900美元下方，创一年新低，较历史高点回落约30%。德国商业银行认为科技股大跌可能引发追加保证金和被迫抛售避险资产，并预计贵金属将回升；油价走高、美国通胀数据坚挺以及市场对12月美联储加息的预期升温同样构成压力。美联储上周维持利率在3.75%至4.00%不变，两名官员投票支持立即加息。

  6. ForexLive61

    Goldman Sachs raises December Brent forecast to $105 on Middle East and Russia supply risks

    Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast from $90 to $105 and set its WTI forecast at $94, citing elevated supply disruption risks from the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The bank also lifted its 2027 average price forecasts for Brent and WTI to $88 and $78 respectively, and added an allowance of 1 million barrels per day of global supply disruption to its base case. Goldman said the market is pricing in a higher risk premium, with many traders seeing a durable diplomatic breakthrough as difficult to achieve.

    Editorial Comment

    By writing 1 million barrels per day of supply disruption into its base case, Goldman Sachs turns the oil risk premium from a tail assumption into a pricing premise. For gold, higher energy costs push up inflation expectations and make the path of real rates more uncertain, a transmission channel worth tracking closely. In FX, the differing energy import burdens across economies will keep shaping the relative strength of major currencies.

    Why we picked this

    高盛把供应中断纳入基准情形，读者可据此理解油价预测与通胀、黄金之间的传导关系。

  7. ForexLive57

    RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 in October, Beats Expectations but Firms Cut Prices to Chase Orders

    RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI was 52.0 in October, slightly below September's 52.1 and above market expectations of 51.6, remaining above 50 for the 11th consecutive month. Output growth was the fastest since April, while new orders increased for the 17th straight month, but export order growth slowed to a three-month low. Output prices fell for the second time in three months, and export charges declined for the first time in nearly a year, with firms attributing this to intense competition. The data contrasted with the official manufacturing PMI of 49.3 released on Saturday, while business confidence fell to a nine-month low.

    Editorial Comment

    The private-sector PMI beat expectations and stayed in expansionary territory, but it contrasted with the official PMI falling back below the boom-bust line, indicating that the manufacturing recovery is uneven. The slowdown in export orders coexists with firms cutting prices to chase orders, meaning resilience in external demand is being offset by price deflation pressure, and weakening business confidence warrants caution. Gold and forex markets should monitor how the divergence between the two sets of data affects China's growth expectations and sentiment toward related assets; a single month's data should not be interpreted linearly.

    Why we picked this

    读者可对照官方与民间两套PMI的分化，理解中国制造业出口韧性与价格通缩压力并存的格局。

  9. FXStreet News50

    Gold Rebounds to Near $3,900 Despite Inflation Concerns

    FXStreet reports that gold has rebounded to near $3,900 despite inflation concerns.

    Editorial Comment

    This price action indicates that inflation concerns have not hindered gold’s short-term rebound, and inflation alone cannot fully explain the current logic driving gold. Traders can continue to monitor changes in inflation-related expectations, observe how this factor’s effectiveness in driving gold prices evolves, and prudently assess the sustainability of this rally.

11月1日周日
10月31日周六
10月30日周五
  3. GoogleNews-西班牙语财经62

    Gold falls below $4,000 as inflationary pressures and expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes heat up

    Gold prices fell below $4,000 due to inflationary pressures and expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes.

    Editorial Comment

    Inflationary pressure coupled with rising interest rate expectations is the direct trigger for the gold price to fall below US$4,000, reflecting that the market is re-evaluating the impact of the interest rate path on non-interest-bearing assets. For traders, the follow-up need to focus on the persistence of inflation data and whether Fed officials' statements will strengthen the signal of further tightening, which will determine whether gold's short-term pressure pattern can continue.

  5. VnExpress Kinh doanh64

    U.S. GDP grew by 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations, driven by AI investment and consumption

    The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on October 29 that GDP growth in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Consumer spending rose 3.8%, as corporate AI-related investments offset the impact of conflicts in the Middle East that pushed up oil prices. The Federal Reserve this week kept its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75%-4% and acknowledged that inflation remains high, and economists expect a rate hike in December.

    Same story, featured below《美国三季度GDP初值3.4%高于3.2%预期》

    Editorial Comment

    U.S. GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations, and consumption and AI investment jointly supported growth. However, in contrast, household consumption confidence weakened, and the differentiation of the economic structure deserves attention. The Federal Reserve stayed on hold and admitted that inflation is still high, and market expectations for an interest rate hike in December have increased. This policy path will directly affect the pricing environment of the U.S. dollar and gold. Traders need to pay attention to whether subsequent inflation and consumption data can verify growth resilience.

10月29日周四
  1. ECB Press Releases74

    ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged, Lagarde says energy shock is pushing up inflation and depressing growth

    The European Central Bank decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged on October 29. Lagarde said that the continued rise in energy prices poses upward risks to inflation and downward risks to growth. The inflation rate rose to 3.8% in September, of which energy price inflation rose to 18.9%. She said she would stick to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach and would not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变，并给出能源冲击推高通胀、压低增长的最新判断，可作为跟踪欧元与美元指数走向的政策依据。

  3. ForexLive63

    Lagarde says euro zone growth should be supported in the short term and inflation will be above target in the medium term

    European Central Bank President Lagarde said that AI investment and government spending should support growth in the short term, but a rebound in energy prices and rising financing costs are damaging confidence and growth. She said that overall inflation is likely to be significantly higher than the target in the next few quarters, energy will further push up inflation in the medium term, inflation risks are on the upward side, and growth risks are on the downside, and the ECB will adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach. She also said that she currently sees no substantial risk of a second-round effect, and the euro once fell to a range of 1.1106 to 1.1130.

    Why we picked this

    拉加德在问答中给出欧元区通胀与增长的双向风险判断，读者可据此理解欧央行后续按会议逐次决策的取向。

  6. ForexLive48

    欧洲时段综述：美股期货下挫，市场等待美国PCE通胀、欧洲央行决议与亚马逊财报

    欧洲时段美股期货走弱，标普500期货跌0.4%、纳斯达克期货跌1.1%，Alphabet财报重新引发对AI支出的担忧。现货黄金跌1.1%至$4,018，10年期美债收益率降2个基点至5.02%，WTI原油跌0.8%至$101.95。市场接下来关注美国PCE通胀数据、欧洲央行利率决议以及亚马逊财报。

  7. ForexLive69

    U.S. core PCE rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, higher than expectations of 0.3%

    The U.S. core PCE rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, higher than the expectation of 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.2%; it rose 0.3% year-on-year, lower than the expectation of 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.0%. The overall PCE rose 3.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 3.4%; personal income rose 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expectation of 0.3%; personal expenditures rose 0.5% month-on-month, lower than the expectation of 0.6%. After the data was released, the US dollar was close to the day's high against the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar, but the exchange rate reaction was limited, and the market's attention turned to the artificial intelligence sector after Google's financial report fell short of expectations.

    Why we picked this

    美国9月核心PCE环比0.5%高于预期，读者可据此了解通胀数据与美元、市场关注点的关系。

  9. ForexLive69

    The initial value of U.S. GDP in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2%

    The initial annualized GDP value of the United States in the third quarter was 3.4%, which was higher than the market expectation of 3.2% and slightly higher than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of 3.3%. Among the sub-items, investment contributed 3.27 percentage points, and consumer spending contributed about 2.52 percentage points. Net exports were a significant drag, and actual final sales only grew by 1.7%, lower than the 2.0% expectation. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, slightly above expectations of 2.4%.

    Why we picked this

    美国三季度GDP超预期但实际最终销售走弱，读者可据此判断库存对增长的贡献与美联储后续政策空间。

10月26日周一
  1. ForexLive58

    Gold may rebound in the short term as concerns about growth and US-Iran conflict recede, and focus turns to FOMC

    Giuseppe Dellamotta thinks gold may rebound in the short term as better-than-expected U.S. PMI eases growth concerns, worries about an Iran strike are dashed, and real yields fall. Gold is approaching the key support area of ​​3,885. If the price is in place, buyers may enter the market to rebound. If it falls below, it will look towards 3,500. The focus this week is Wednesday's FOMC decision, where the market is generally expected to keep the policy on hold and an unexpected interest rate hike will trigger a gold sell-off.

    Editorial Comment

    The author breaks down the short-term logic into two main lines: the fall in actual yields reduces the opportunity cost of gold holdings, while the disappearance of the risk premium in the Middle East takes away the previous safe-haven support. With the two hedging against each other, the gold price is more like oscillating within a range rather than choosing a direction unilaterally. The real pricing power this week falls on Wednesday's FOMC, where the consensus is to hold on unchanged. The risk point suggested by the author is that unexpected interest rate hikes may trigger selling pressure. For traders, rather than betting on direction in advance, it is better to track the effectiveness of key support areas and the actual market reaction once the resolution lands.

    Why we picked this

    作者从实际收益率和中东风险切入，给出黄金短线的支撑阻力区域，并提示 FOMC 意外加息的抛售风险。

  2. ForexLive53

    Foreign exchange market outlook for the week from October 26th to 30th

    Preview of major central bank decisions for the week from October 26 to 30: The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to remain unchanged, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each. The United States will also release the core PCE price index and preliminary third-quarter GDP this week, and the market will focus on the resilience of inflation.

    Editorial Comment

    This week is a week of intensive central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are expected to remain unchanged. If the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada raise interest rates as expected, the policy differentiation pattern of developed economies will be further highlighted. The difference in interest rate expectations of related currencies deserves attention. In addition, the U.S. core PCE price index and the initial value of third-quarter GDP will test the resilience of inflation and directly affect the market’s pricing of the Fed’s policy path. Compared with the resolution itself, changes in the wording of central bank statements are often the key to triggering exchange rate fluctuations.

    Why we picked this

    把RBNZ与加拿大央行的加息预期同美联储、欧央行的按兵不动放在一起，方便对照各货币的利率预期差。

  3. ForexLive45

    Preview of this week's five major central bank interest rates: market pricing is sufficient, focus turns to December policy signals

    This week, RBNZ, BOC, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce intensive interest rate decisions, and the market has basically priced in. Traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike for the RBNZ, about an 83% chance of a BOC rate hike, about a 91% chance of the Fed keeping rates on hold, a roughly 90% chance of the European Central Bank keeping interest rates on hold, and a roughly 98% chance of the Bank of Japan keeping rates on hold. Press conferences by central bank governors and chairs will be in focus as traders look for signals of further action in December.

    Editorial Comment

    This week's five major central bank decisions themselves have been fully priced in by the market, and the real variable lies in the wording of each governor's policy path in December. For gold, the marginal revision of real interest rates and US dollar expectations is more worthy of tracking than the resolution outcome itself; on the foreign exchange side, attention should be paid to whether the policy differences between RBNZ, BOC and the Federal Reserve continue to converge.

    Why we picked this

    本周五家主要央行密集议息，市场对即期决议定价充分，真正的看点在官员对 12 月政策路径的措辞，可能影响汇率与利率预期。

  4. ForexLive54

    Brazil ETF drops nearly 15% on Lula's victory

    Brazil ETFs fell nearly 15% in Tokyo trading as Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff. Goldman Sachs said that under extreme circumstances, the U.S. dollar may rise by 10% against the Brazilian real, the Brazilian stock market may fall by 15%, and long-term government bond yields may rise by about 200 basis points. Meanwhile, gold is near three-month lows, oil prices opened lower after not upgrading over the weekend, and the market is focused on central bank meetings such as the Federal Reserve this week.

    Editorial Comment

    The results of the Brazilian election triggered a sharp decline in Brazilian ETFs. The foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to the risk transmission of real-related currency pairs and the spillover effects of emerging market asset fluctuations on the US dollar. At the same time, with gold close to a three-month low, oil prices opening lower, and multiple central bank meetings this week, traders should focus on tracking the interactive impact of the subsequent performance of Brazilian assets and policy signals such as the Federal Reserve on safe-haven assets and currency market sensitivity.

    Why we picked this

    巴西大选结果直接触发ETF急跌，材料同时覆盖原油、黄金和多家央行会议预期，为理解亚太时段多资产联动提供具体线索。

10月24日周六
  1. VnExpress Kinh doanh79

    World gold prices continue to fall, hitting a three-month low

    The world gold spot price closed down US$28 on October 23 to US$3,994 per ounce, the lowest since mid-July, with a cumulative decline of 4% that week. Rising oil prices triggered concerns about inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, which was the main reason for the decline in gold prices. The Federal Reserve policy meeting next week is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market is pricing in a 78% probability of raising interest rates in December.

    Editorial Comment

    The price of gold fell below a key psychological mark and hit a three-month low, reflecting that inflation concerns caused by rising oil prices are strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, thereby weakening the appeal of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged but releases a hawkish signal at next week's meeting, it may further solidify expectations for a December interest rate hike. Traders need to pay attention to marginal changes in policy language and market interest rate pricing, which will be the core variable for short-term fluctuations in precious metals.

    Why we picked this

    原文点出金价失守4000美元并创3个月新低，同时给出油价与通胀预期传导逻辑，可用于观察贵金属对美联储政策预期的敏感度。

10月22日周四
  2. FXStreet News46

    U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 194K last week

    The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 194K last week.

    Same story, featured below《美国初请失业金人数降至194,000，接近1960年代末以来最低》

    Editorial Comment

    The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 194,000 last week, reflecting that the labor market remains resilient. This data may affect the market's pricing of the Fed's policy path, triggering fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and gold. Traders should pay attention to whether subsequent employment and inflation data can continue this signal.

  3. CNBC Top News54

    U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 194,000, near lowest level since late 1960s

    The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 in the week ended October 17, close to the 189,000 in the week ended July 18, the lowest level since the late 1960s. Non-farm employment increased by only 29,000 in September, with an average monthly increase of 69,000 in 2026. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but the layoff rate fell to 1%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October and raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

    Editorial Comment

    The number of initial jobless claims is close to a historical low, but non-farm employment increased by only 29,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This differentiation makes the Fed's balance between inflation and employment more complicated. The market's expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December are in contrast to the weak employment data. Traders need to pay attention to subsequent statements by Federal Reserve officials on the resilience of the job market and the need to raise interest rates, which may increase the volatility of gold and the US dollar.

    Why we picked this

    初请失业金人数降至194,000逼近历史低点，同时非农就业仅增29,000，这一分化指向美联储在通胀与就业间的平衡。

10月21日周三
  1. CNBC Top News73

    British inflation rises to 3.5%, reinforcing expectations of interest rate hike

    UK CPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year in September, higher than the expected 3.4%, the highest in a year, reinforcing expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates. Fuel prices rose 29.8% year-on-year, the highest since August 2022. Net energy import dependence makes the UK vulnerable to external energy shocks.

    Editorial Comment

    Higher-than-expected inflation in the UK strengthens interest rate hike expectations, which means that the sensitivity of the pound and UK bond yields to the path of monetary policy has increased, and traders need to pay attention to the central bank's subsequent policy signals. The sharp rise in fuel prices highlights the external impact brought about by dependence on net energy imports. This cost-push inflation may intensify concerns about stagflation, creating a complex game between the safe-haven properties of gold and the suppression of expectations for interest rate hikes.

    Why we picked this

    英国9月通胀升至3.5%超预期，燃油价格同比涨29.8%，强化加息预期，是判断英债收益率和英镑走向的关键数据。

  2. ForexLive49

    The UK's September CPI report was released today, and the Bank of England's interest rate hike in November is almost fully priced.

    The UK September CPI report was released today, and the market has almost completely priced in the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The market expects the overall CPI to rise by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI to rise by 2.8%, both higher than the previous values. Traders price the probability of an interest rate hike in November at about 96%, and the probability of continuous interest rate hikes in December at about 61%; the author believes that hotter data may strengthen expectations for further tightening after November, while softer data may prompt traders to reduce some aggressive expectations.

    Editorial Comment

    The UK's September CPI data will verify the market's almost complete pricing of the Bank of England's interest rate hike in November. The market expects both overall and core inflation to be higher than the previous value. This means that if the data is higher than expected, it may strengthen expectations for further tightening after November. If the data is lower than expected, it may prompt traders to reduce some aggressive bets. For sterling and gold traders, the key is not the single rate hike itself, but how the data changes the market's marginal pricing of the policy path in December and beyond.

    Why we picked this

    原文给出9月CPI预期和11月、12月加息隐含概率，可据此观察数据公布后英央行紧缩预期的边际变化。