高盛因中东与俄罗斯供应风险将12月布伦特原油预测上调至105美元
Goldman lifts December Brent forecast to $105 on Middle East and Russia supply risks
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast from $90 to $105 and set its WTI forecast at $94, citing elevated supply disruption risks from the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The bank also lifted its 2027 average price forecasts for Brent and WTI to $88 and $78 respectively, and added an allowance of 1 million barrels per day of global supply disruption to its base case. Goldman said the market is pricing in a higher risk premium, with many traders seeing a durable diplomatic breakthrough as difficult to achieve.
By writing 1 million barrels per day of supply disruption into its base case, Goldman Sachs turns the oil risk premium from a tail assumption into a pricing premise. For gold, higher energy costs push up inflation expectations and make the path of real rates more uncertain, a transmission channel worth tracking closely. In FX, the differing energy import burdens across economies will keep shaping the relative strength of major currencies.
高盛把供应中断纳入基准情形，读者可据此理解油价预测与通胀、黄金之间的传导关系。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com