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11月3日周二
  1. CoinTelegraph58

    RBA raises rates 25bp to 4.85% as AI investment and energy costs push up inflation

    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, the highest level in 18 years, with the monetary policy committee voting 6-3, as three members favored holding at 4.60%. The bank pushed back its forecast for inflation returning to the upper end of the 2% to 3% target range to late 2027, about three quarters later than previously expected, and said AI-related investment is driving rapid increases in prices of technology goods, while the Middle East conflict has also pushed up fuel and commodity prices. The decision contrasts with the Federal Reserve, which held rates steady last week, with Fed officials likewise warning that the AI investment boom is adding to price pressures.

    Editorial Comment

    The RBA raised rates to an 18-year high and explicitly cited AI-related investment and energy costs as structural factors pushing up inflation, implying its tightening cycle may last longer than the market expects, giving the Australian dollar relative support on rate differentials. Notably, both the RBA and the Fed have flagged pressure on prices from AI investment, a cross-market common thread worth tracking, as it could change major central banks' judgments on the neutral rate. Follow-up focus is on whether the timetable for inflation's return to target is pushed back further, and how policy divergence between Australia and the US affects carry trades.

    Why we picked this

    澳大利亚央行加息至18年高位，并把AI相关投资列为推升物价的因素之一，可与美联储的同类表态对照阅读。

  2. FXStreet News50

    Australian dollar falls after RBA raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%

    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, and the Australian dollar subsequently fell.

    Same story, featured below《澳大利亚央行加息25个基点至4.85%，AI投资与能源成本推高通胀》

    Editorial Comment

    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, but the Australian dollar fell instead of rising, indicating that the market has fully priced in this interest rate hike and may even interpret it as a signal that the tightening is nearing its end. For traders, it is worth paying attention to the reaction pattern of the Australian dollar after the interest rate hike is implemented, and the spillover effect of this trend on the overall sentiment of commodity currencies; at the same time, the indirect transmission of interest rate changes to gold also needs to be observed.

  3. ForexLive58

    澳洲联储加息25个基点至4.85%，6比3投票分歧

    澳洲联储周二将现金利率上调25个基点至4.85%，为2026年第五次加息，也是2008年以来最高水平，但投票结果为6比3，三名委员倾向维持4.60%不变。澳洲联储称通胀仍高且范围广泛，预计未来一年通胀保持在3%以上，直到2027年末才回到2%至3%目标区间顶部，比此前预测晚约三个季度。声明未释放进一步加息信号，称将关注数据并采取必要措施使通胀可持续回到目标。

  4. ForexLive63

    RBA November 3 Rate Decision Preview: 31 of 32 Economists Expect Hike to 4.85%

    The RBA will announce its rate decision at 14:30 Sydney time on Tuesday. Thirty-one of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect a 25 bp rate hike, lifting the cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85%, the highest level in nearly two decades.

    Editorial Comment

    A Reuters survey shows that 31 of 32 economists polled expect the RBA to raise rates by 25 bp to 4.85% at this meeting, with rate-hike expectations now highly aligned between markets and the economist community. Deutsche Bank's call to hold rates serves as a minority reference, meaning this decision could still deviate from mainstream expectations. Traders can focus on the event's short-term impact on the Australian dollar and gold markets, and watch for volatility risk caused by expectation gaps.

    Why we picked this

    澳大利亚央行利率决议前，市场与经济学家的加息预期高度一致，德银的按兵不动判断构成少数派参照。

  5. CNBC Top News55

    The Federal Reserve will reduce the number of votes on interest rates, which may affect the pace of borrowing cost adjustments

    Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced that the number of interest rate votes will be reduced in the next two years. There will be no vote or post-statement at one of the eight meetings next year. The number of "strategy" meetings will be increased to two the following year, leaving only six opportunities to adjust interest rates. On October 28, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75% to 4%, and inflation remained above the 2% target. Many experts believe that fewer meetings may make consumers wait longer for borrowing costs such as credit cards, mortgages and car loans, and the market will also have less understanding of the Fed's future policy signals.

    Editorial Comment

    The Fed's reduction in the number of votes on interest rates essentially compresses the window for policy adjustments, and the pace of reaction of borrowing costs to economic data may be lengthened. For traders, what is more worthy of attention are the changes in pricing efficiency brought about by the decrease in policy signal density - in an environment with sparser information, the weight of the market's interpretation of each meeting and statement will increase, and the sources of short-term fluctuations in gold and foreign exchange will be more concentrated in a few nodes. Inflation is still above the target and the opportunities for adjustment are reduced, which means that the uncertainty of the policy path is structurally elevated.

    Why we picked this

    从美联储减少议息投票次数切入，梳理其对信用卡、房贷和车贷等借贷成本传导节奏的影响。

11月2日周一
  1. ForexLive58

    日本央行重申通胀已站稳2%，为何仍按兵不动

    日本央行上周维持利率在1.25%不变后，再次强调基础通胀已升至与其2%目标相符的水平。最新季度展望报告将2027财年核心通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%，剔除生鲜食品和能源的核心核心通胀预测从2.6%上调至2.7%。日本央行仍希望评估此前加息对金融状况的传导效果，长期实际利率近期已在上升，这被视为不急于行动的理由之一。

  2. ForexLive52

    Deutsche Bank alone predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged, and 31 of 32 economists expect to raise interest rates.

    31 of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, with only Deutsche Bank Australia chief economist Phil O'Donoghue's forecast remaining unchanged. He believes that the September quarter inflation rate of 3.7% is in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia's own forecast, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%, and more data can be waited until December. The market is currently pricing in an 85% probability of raising interest rates, and Deutsche Bank expects Brent crude oil to fall back to $90 early next year.

    Editorial Comment

    Of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters, 31 were optimistic about raising interest rates, and market pricing had reached 85%, with Deutsche Bank becoming the only dissenter. The disagreement itself is more informative than the outcome: Deutsche Bank's reasoning is that inflation is in line with the RBA's own forecasts and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%. If this logic is accepted, the Australian dollar will reprice the subsequent path. What will really come to be seen on Tuesday is the wording of the statement, not whether it will be added this time around.

    Why we picked this

    路透调查中32位经济学家仅德银一人预测澳洲联储按兵不动，读者可借此理解市场定价与央行决策之间的分歧。

  3. ForexLive58

    PBOC Sets USD/CNY Central Parity at 6.7146, Weaker Than 6.6625 Expected

    The People's Bank of China set today's USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.7146, compared with market expectations of 6.6625, making the yuan's central parity markedly weaker. The central bank allows the yuan to fluctuate 2% above and below that parity rate. On the day, it injected 541 billion yuan via overnight reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.25%. Separately, 1 trillion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 56 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 515 billion yuan.

    Editorial Comment

    The substantially weaker-than-expected yuan-dollar central parity, together with the PBOC keeping the reverse repo rate at 1.25% and achieving a net withdrawal of 515 billion yuan in open market operations, provides a clear reference for observing the official pricing bias of USD/CNY. Traders can use the rule that the yuan may fluctuate 2% above and below the central parity to track the interplay between official pricing signals and market trading behavior.

    Why we picked this

    人民币中间价大幅弱于预期，配合央行净回笼515亿元，读者可据此观察当日USD/CNY的官方定价取向。

  4. ForexLive70

    China’s central bank sets overnight reverse repo rate at 1.25% and shifts to daily operations

    The People’s Bank of China will conduct fixed-rate 1.25% overnight reverse repo operations every business day starting Monday. The initially disclosed overnight operation rate is below the 1.4% seven-day reverse repo rate. Seven-day operations have been changed to a fixed-quantity, multiple-award-rate tender method, used mainly during tax payment periods and month-ends. Other instruments previously priced against the seven-day rate will now use the overnight rate as the benchmark, with unchanged spreads. Economists said this is the clearest signal the central bank is moving toward a Federal Reserve-style overnight-rate operating framework.

    Editorial Comment

    The PBOC’s shift of its policy-rate anchor from the seven-day reverse repo to the overnight reverse repo, along with daily operations, means more regular short-end rate control and more direct transmission of policy signals. FX and gold markets should monitor the impact of this framework change on RMB liquidity conditions, interest-rate expectations and institutional liquidity pricing, though its effectiveness will still depend on the subsequent pace of operations and market transmission.

    Why we picked this

    梳理中国央行将政策利率锚从七天期转向隔夜逆回购的具体安排，以及这一框架变化对资金面与政策信号的影响。

  5. ForexLive43

    JPMorgan 加入 RBA 11 月加息阵营，预计紧缩倾向将持续

    JPMorgan 预计澳洲联储（RBA）将在本周会议上加息，市场定价显示加息概率约 90%。当前现金利率为 4.60%，若加息 25 个基点将升至 4.85%。JPMorgan 认为疲弱的经济活动会限制 11 月之后的加息空间，但因通胀仍过高，RBA 将维持紧缩倾向。决议定于悉尼时间周二下午 2:30 公布，同时发布季度货币政策声明及最新预测。

11月1日周日
10月31日周六
  4. FXStreet News48

    Fed's Musalem calls for near-term rate hikes, says current policy still too loose

    Fed official Musalem called for rate hikes as soon as possible, citing that current policy remains too loose. The remarks come from an FXStreet report; the original text provides only the headline and summary, with no further details.

    Editorial Comment

    Musalem's public call for rate hikes as soon as possible and his statement that current policy is still too loose constitute a hawkish stance that could reinforce market expectations for the pace of Fed tightening. For gold, rising real rate expectations are typically a restraining factor; for the forex market, watch for changes in interest rate differential expectations between the dollar and major currencies. Because the original text contains only the headline and summary and lacks specifics on the size and timing of rate hikes, traders should wait for more official comments or data verification rather than adjusting positions based on a single news item.

10月30日周五
  2. ForexLive64

    ECB Keeps Tightening Option Open; EURUSD Rebounds After Failed Break Below 1.11135

    The ECB kept rates unchanged, but Lagarde delivered a hawkish signal, saying this hold does not rule out a hike next time. EURUSD first broke below the double bottom around 1.11135 formed on October 14, touched a low of 1.1106 and then reversed higher to 1.1155, entering the 1.1152 to 1.11602 swing zone, with the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average at 1.11616 above. If it holds above 1.11616, the next targets are 1.11845 and 1.11913; if it stalls and pulls back, focus returns to 1.11130 to 1.11135 and 1.1106.

    Editorial Comment

    The ECB held rates but Lagarde's hawkish signal let the euro quickly recover after breaking below a key double bottom, showing the market is repricing the policy path. Traders need to watch whether the pair can hold near the 100-hour moving average, which determines whether the rebound is a technical repair or a trend change; if it stalls and pulls back, focus will return to the prior low area. The linkage of this news to the dollar index and gold is worth noting.

    Why we picked this

    文章把欧洲央行鹰派按兵不动与EURUSD假突破失败结合，给出1.1152至1.11616等关键位，便于判断反弹能否延续。

  3. ForexLive65

    Reuters sources: ECB policymakers lean toward pause after December rate hike

    Reuters, citing ECB sources, said policymakers are inclined to pause after raising rates in December. New ECB staff estimates show that higher bond yields will cumulatively lower growth by 100 bp and inflation by 90 bp over 2027–2028. The authors note that markets have fairly fully priced in a December rate hike, while the euro saw a mild sell-off on dovish expectations for a pause after December.

    Editorial Comment

    The ECB’s intention to pause after December’s rate hike means the tightening pace may enter an observation period, and the cumulative restraining effect of higher bond yields on growth and inflation reinforces this policy logic. Markets have fairly fully priced in the December hike; the focus ahead is on post-meeting communication and whether pause expectations are confirmed. Changes in the related rate path will affect the euro and, through central bank policy differentials and real interest-rate expectations, drive gold.

    Why we picked this

    路透消息源显示欧央行决策者倾向12月加息后暂停，并给出债券收益率上升对增长与通胀的量化影响。

10月29日周四
  1. ECB Press Releases74

    ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged, Lagarde says energy shock is pushing up inflation and depressing growth

    The European Central Bank decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged on October 29. Lagarde said that the continued rise in energy prices poses upward risks to inflation and downward risks to growth. The inflation rate rose to 3.8% in September, of which energy price inflation rose to 18.9%. She said she would stick to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach and would not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变，并给出能源冲击推高通胀、压低增长的最新判断，可作为跟踪欧元与美元指数走向的政策依据。

  3. ForexLive69

    ECB keeps interest rates unchanged, Lagarde announces she will leave office in February next year

    In this interest rate decision, the European Central Bank kept the three major interest rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%, all in line with expectations. President Lagarde announced on the same day that she would leave office in February next year. She had previously stated that she would not leave during difficult times. The statement said that the continued rise in energy prices poses upward risks to inflation and downward risks to growth. The market is pricing in an unexpected interest rate hike of 13% this month and 65% in December. The euro fell 21 points to 1.1131 before the resolution, close to the low of the year.

    Why we picked this

    原文列出欧央行利率决议三项利率与市场定价，读者可对照12月加息概率与欧元位置判断政策路径。

  4. ForexLive63

    Lagarde says euro zone growth should be supported in the short term and inflation will be above target in the medium term

    European Central Bank President Lagarde said that AI investment and government spending should support growth in the short term, but a rebound in energy prices and rising financing costs are damaging confidence and growth. She said that overall inflation is likely to be significantly higher than the target in the next few quarters, energy will further push up inflation in the medium term, inflation risks are on the upward side, and growth risks are on the downside, and the ECB will adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach. She also said that she currently sees no substantial risk of a second-round effect, and the euro once fell to a range of 1.1106 to 1.1130.

    Why we picked this

    拉加德在问答中给出欧元区通胀与增长的双向风险判断，读者可据此理解欧央行后续按会议逐次决策的取向。

  5. ECB Press Releases66

    ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged

    The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility rate, main refinancing operation rate and marginal lending rate remaining at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively. The statement said that the continued rise in energy prices poses upward risks to inflation and downward risks to growth. Underlying inflation has been broadly stable so far, and wages have not yet shown a significant reaction. The APP and PEPP portfolios continue to shrink at a predictable pace, and the ECB will no longer reinvest the principal of maturing securities.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变，并说明能源冲击对通胀与增长的双向风险，便于判断后续政策路径。

10月26日周一
  1. ForexLive45

    Preview of this week's five major central bank interest rates: market pricing is sufficient, focus turns to December policy signals

    This week, RBNZ, BOC, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce intensive interest rate decisions, and the market has basically priced in. Traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike for the RBNZ, about an 83% chance of a BOC rate hike, about a 91% chance of the Fed keeping rates on hold, a roughly 90% chance of the European Central Bank keeping interest rates on hold, and a roughly 98% chance of the Bank of Japan keeping rates on hold. Press conferences by central bank governors and chairs will be in focus as traders look for signals of further action in December.

    Editorial Comment

    This week's five major central bank decisions themselves have been fully priced in by the market, and the real variable lies in the wording of each governor's policy path in December. For gold, the marginal revision of real interest rates and US dollar expectations is more worthy of tracking than the resolution outcome itself; on the foreign exchange side, attention should be paid to whether the policy differences between RBNZ, BOC and the Federal Reserve continue to converge.

    Why we picked this

    本周五家主要央行密集议息，市场对即期决议定价充分，真正的看点在官员对 12 月政策路径的措辞，可能影响汇率与利率预期。

10月21日周三
  2. ForexLive49

    Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino warns of rising inflation risks as Japan approaches 2% target

    Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himimo Ryozo warned of upward inflation risks, saying potential inflation was close to the 2% target and stressing that delays in adjusting policy could allow inflation risks to materialize and harm the economy. Traders have almost ruled out action at the October meeting, but priced in about a 74% chance of raising interest rates again in December; the author believes that further tightening by the Bank of Japan is still on the agenda.

    Editorial Comment

    The hawkish statement by the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan has strengthened the market's expectations for subsequent policy normalization, but there is a significant time lag between traders' pricing of an interest rate hike in December and a hold on the policy in October. The foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to how this difference in policy expectations affects the revaluation of the yen carry trade, and the resulting indirect transmission of cross-asset fluctuations to gold.

    Why we picked this

    日本央行副行长警告延迟调整可能让通胀风险实现，与市场对12月加息约74%的定价形成对照。

  3. ForexLive63

    Japan Finance Minister Katayama says there are no differences with the central bank, wage-driven inflation approaches

    Japan's economy is at a tipping point toward shifting to persistent wage-driven inflation, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday, adding there were no differences between the government and the Bank of Japan. She pointed out that the current price rise is mainly driven by import costs, and tax cuts and family subsidies are aimed at easing cost of living pressure; a Reuters survey showed that most economists expect the central bank to raise interest rates to 1.50% in December.

    Editorial Comment

    Japan's Finance Minister stated that he had no differences with the central bank and emphasized that wage-driven inflation is approaching, which strengthened market expectations for the normalization of monetary policy. Most economists polled by Reuters expected to raise interest rates to 1.50% in December. This is echoed. For the yen, consistency in policy communication may reduce uncertainty, but attention needs to be paid to whether wage and price data can continue to verify this judgment, rather than relying solely on official statements.

    Why we picked this

    她称政府与日本央行无分歧且工资驱动通胀临近，呼应了多数经济学家对12月加息至1.50%的预期，可作为日元走势的政策面参考。

10月19日周一
  1. ECB Press Releases40

    Frank Elderson: From climate and natural risks to economic resilience and competitiveness

    Frank Elderson, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, said at the Green Swan 2026 conference that climate and natural risks have become structural macro factors affecting growth, inflation and financial stability.

    Editorial Comment

    The Executive Committee of the European Central Bank defines climate and natural risks as structural macro factors that affect growth, inflation and financial stability, which prompts the market to incorporate non-traditional risks into long-term considerations of the euro area's policy path and asset pricing. Traders can pay attention to whether the policy uncertainty and financing channel obstacles faced by green investment will disrupt capital expenditure and productivity in the euro area, thereby affecting the mid- to long-term risk premium of the euro as well as gold’s hedging and real interest rate logic.

    Why we picked this

    欧央行执委将气候与自然风险界定为影响增长和通胀的结构性宏观因素，并点出政策不确定性与融资渠道是绿色投资的主要障碍。

10月17日周六
  3. ECB Press Releases61

    Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, issued a statement at the IMFC meeting: The euro area economy remains resilient but inflation risks are tilted to the upside.

    Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, issued a statement at the IMFC meeting saying that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points again in September after June to respond to inflation driven up by energy shocks. She gave an outlook for overall inflation to rise to 3.8% and core inflation to 2.5% in September, with staff forecasting euro zone growth of 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026, 2027 and 2028 respectively.

    Editorial Comment

    European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde confirmed that interest rates will be raised by 25 basis points again in September to deal with energy-driven inflation, and gave an outlook of overall inflation of 3.8% and core inflation of 2.5%, indicating that the policy stance is still tight. This statement deserves attention for its support logic for the euro exchange rate and the potential impact of inflation resilience on the gold real interest rate environment; in the future, we need to pay attention to the balance between the weak economic growth forecast and policy tightening in the Eurozone.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行行长声明同时给出利率路径、通胀预测与数字欧元试点安排，是观察欧洲央行政策协调的第一手材料。

10月15日周四
  1. Seeking Alpha Market Currents73

    The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October falls below 30%

    The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 28 dropped from 50% to 27.1%. Market pricing has changed significantly in the past day.

    Editorial Comment

    The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October dropped from 50% to 27.1% in a single day, indicating that the market's pricing of the short-term tightening path has significantly cooled down. This change may ease the dollar's support from interest rate expectations and affect the holding cost logic of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold. Traders need to pay attention to whether subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials and economic data will further revise this expectation.

    Why we picked this

    CME FedWatch概率单日从50%降至27.1%，这一变化能帮助理解10月会议前市场加息预期的降温。

  3. FXStreet News47

    Bank of England Pill doubts markets are pricing in four rate hikes in a year

    The Bank of England's Pill said it was more skeptical about the market pricing in four interest rate hikes in the next year.

    Editorial Comment

    Bank of England official Pill expressed doubts about the market's pricing of four interest rate hikes within a year, indicating that current interest rate expectations may be more hawkish than the actual policy path, and the pound faces the risk of volatility caused by expected revisions. Traders need to pay attention to the subsequent statements of Bank of England officials and interest rate pricing adjustments, and evaluate their indirect transmission to the pound cross and US dollar-denominated gold.

    Why we picked this

    官员对市场四次加息预期表达怀疑，为判断英国利率路径提供政策信号。

  6. CNBC Top News50

    French central bank governor says France can reduce deficit to 3% within three years

    Moulin, the governor of the Bank of France, said that France can reduce the budget deficit from 5.1% last year to 3% in 2029, which is the government's goal. He said that the recent rise in French government bond yields was mainly due to political uncertainty rather than a deterioration in fiscal fundamentals; debt servicing costs increased by about 10 billion euros per year, but he emphasized that the French financial system was sound and there was no concern about risk contagion.

    Editorial Comment

    The Governor of the Bank of France's statement attempts to decouple the rise in French bond yields from fiscal fundamentals, which may ease market concerns about France's sovereign risks, but political uncertainty may still continue the volatility of French bonds and the euro. Traders should pay attention to the transmission of political risk to the euro risk premium and the potential impact of changes in risk aversion on gold, rather than just focusing on the deficit data itself.

    Why we picked this

    法国央行行长称2029年赤字降至3%可行，并将债券收益率上行归因于政治不确定性而非财政恶化，有助于评估法国主权债风险。

10月13日周二
  1. ForexLive52

    Bank of England Greene warns it will be too late to wait for second round of inflationary effects before acting

    Megan Greene, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, said that the UK's monetary policy was not overly tightened. She warned that waiting for the second round of inflation effects to appear before taking action would make the central bank respond too late. She believed that the greater risk was that the fight against inflation was not active enough rather than raising interest rates too early. She voted in the minority for 25 basis point rate hikes in July and September, both of which were rejected, and she was not surprised when the IMF this week raised its UK growth forecast to 1.3% in 2026.

    Editorial Comment

    Greene's warning underscores wariness within the Bank of England over the effects of a second wave of inflation, providing more hawkish clues to expectations for a rate hike ahead of its November policy meeting. Traders need to pay attention to the statements of Bank of England members and evidence of the transmission of energy prices to wages. Its pricing effect on the pound and British bond yields may indirectly affect gold through exchange rate channels. The IMF's upward growth forecast did not change her hawkish stance, which means that the market's re-evaluation of the Bank of England's policy path may continue.

    Why we picked this

    Greene 把能源价格传导至工资和价格的第二轮通胀效应与 11 月加息预期挂钩，有助于理解英国央行鹰派动向对英镑和英债的影响。