德银独自预测澳洲联储维持利率不变，32位经济学家中31人预计加息
Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA hold call as 31 of 32 economists tip a hike
31 of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, with only Deutsche Bank Australia chief economist Phil O'Donoghue's forecast remaining unchanged. He believes that the September quarter inflation rate of 3.7% is in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia's own forecast, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%, and more data can be waited until December. The market is currently pricing in an 85% probability of raising interest rates, and Deutsche Bank expects Brent crude oil to fall back to $90 early next year.
Of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters, 31 were optimistic about raising interest rates, and market pricing had reached 85%, with Deutsche Bank becoming the only dissenter. The disagreement itself is more informative than the outcome: Deutsche Bank's reasoning is that inflation is in line with the RBA's own forecasts and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%. If this logic is accepted, the Australian dollar will reprice the subsequent path. What will really come to be seen on Tuesday is the wording of the statement, not whether it will be added this time around.
路透调查中32位经济学家仅德银一人预测澳洲联储按兵不动，读者可借此理解市场定价与央行决策之间的分歧。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com