第 01 章
一交易日,一次结算:金价下跌 4,000 点,然后是 3,970 点,然后是 3,900 点,最终收于 3,876.89 点,此前下跌了 3.59%,而普通渠道无法解释这一点。
10 月 30 日星期五纽约现货交易时段收于美国东部时间 16:00,即 10 月 31 日星期六北京时间 04:00,该网站自己的每日柱线结算价为每盎司 3,876.89 美元,开盘价为 4,022.16,最高价为 4,025.79,最低价为 3,872.24。五分钟的系列从北京时间 04:13 的高点 4,028.21 到北京时间 04:48 的低点 3,872.99,并在北京时间 04:54 结算打印到 3,876.89,Kitco 自己的同一交易日记录将低点定为 3,869.30,再次下跌 3.69 美元。最后一次超过4000的打印是北京时间13点43分4003.13;北京22点24分首次跌破3900的是3899.99;北京时间21:33,纽约现货时段开盘于3,936.21。
然后周末做了一件会议上无法做到的事情,这就是现金调用。周四纽约收盘后的几个小时内,币安的创纪录盗窃金额约为 63 亿美元,约 13 亿美元的杠杆加密货币头寸被清算,比特币跌至六周低点,接近 76,400 美元。 周四晚上解除杠杆的市场就是周五早上解除杠杆的市场,而金属是它所拥有的最具流动性的东西。 因此,本报告结束时的问题不是金属是否突破了 3,900 点。问题在于周一开盘时贷方是否再次要求现金,因为这是本文件中唯一解释实际收益率下降、美元走软和同一天买入包装的机制。
这一行上的每一点都是该网站自己的五分钟系列的打印,带有自己的时间戳,并且它覆盖的窗口是明示的而不是暗示的。该系列在北京10月30日00:19开始,也就是10月29日纽约12:19,所以它从上一个纽约时段的最后三小时四十分钟开始,一直持续到10月31日北京04:54,也就是10月31日北京04:54 10 月 30 日纽约 16:54。最后一点是结算打印,而不是实时打印,本报告的上一版本表示不存在结算。 绘制垂直轴,以便之前的结算线位于该价格实际属于框架的位置,并且在会话高点上方花费 264 美元的空白空间。该轴从 3,872 到 4,292,网格线相距 105 美元,这将 10 月 29 日结算价 4,021.28 置于框架上真实位置的两美元以内;标有价格的参考线不得以非价格绘制。因此,该时段自身的区间占据了框架的下三分之一:北京时间 04:13 的 4,028.21 下降到北京时间 04:48 的 3,872.99。网站自己的五分钟系列中该时段的最低价为 3,872.99,而不是早期版本标记为最低价的 3,899.99;首次跌破3,900点是在北京时间22点24分,金价继续下跌了六小时二十四分钟。 Kitco 自己的同一交易日记录的低点仍然较低,为 3,869.30,并且由于市场整个周末都休市,因此在结算后没有任何打印。 10 月 30 日的官方每日柱线的低点为 3,872.24,结构性报价文件的滚动窗口为 3,870.20,Kitco 自己的记录为 3,869.30,所有四个都被报告,而不是被选择。
第 02 章
周五,四位美联储官员发表讲话,其中两人也说了同样的话,在曲线前端上涨的同时,市场仍预计 12 月加息的可能性为 72.4%。
10 月 28 日,委员会将利率维持在 3.75% 至 4.00% 之间,两位州长投票支持加息。周五,达拉斯和圣路易斯总统公开表示需要进一步紧缩,里士满总统表示方向明确,但步伐不明确,旧金山总统谈到了人工智能,但根本没有提及利率路径。库克和哈马克这两位持异议的州长被列入解释投票的名单,但两人的言论都没有得到证实。芝加哥商品交易所 12 月定价收于 72.4%,至少上涨 25 个基点,同日下午两年期国债收益率下跌 5 个基点。周末没有美联储官员发表讲话,美联储主席宣布更改会议日历,从 2027 年秋季开始,八次年度会议之一将改为战略讨论,不进行利率投票,这是美联储在此窗口内唯一不是演讲的项目。
周五是美联储一年中最繁忙的讲话日,市场对此的反应是买入曲线的前端。五名官员出席了会议。其中圣路易斯和达拉斯两位总统公开表示,委员会需要进一步收紧政策,达拉斯总统给出了一个数字:至少两次加息25个基点。里士满总统表示,前进的方向很简单,问题是速度。这位旧金山总统谈到了人工智能,但没有提及利率路径。两名反对加息的州长被列出来解释他们的投票,但没有人听到他们的声音。 尽管如此,两年期国债收益率在官方曲线上下跌了 5 个基点,在美国东部时间 15:00 屏幕上下跌了 7.50 个基点,而十年期与两年期国债利差从 33.20 个基点扩大至 34.80 个基点。这种组合并不是鹰派的重新定价。鹰派的重新定价会提升前端并压平曲线。周五的结果恰恰相反:前端反弹幅度最大,曲线变陡。最有可能的解读是,市场听到了周三和周四听到的同样的消息,已经定价,然后卖出股票。12月定价以芝加哥商业交易所自己的工具至少上涨25个基点的72.4%收盘,而10月30日北京06:05公布的综合数据为74.9%,10月北京06:00重新发布的印刷数据为72% 31 日,交易期间一度保持稳定的可能性超过 30%。 这些口径是并排打印的,而不是平均的,因为它们之间的差异比任何一个与早期版本 70% 之间的差异都要小。 这张表上对金属真正重要的一个数字是没有移动到足以伤害它的那个数字。如果美联储自己的鹰派在记录中表示需要再加息两次,而 12 月合约仅达到 72.4%,那么 12 月会议定价作为一种形式,金属的问题根本不是政策路径。
数据
| 时间 | 人物/机构 | 核心表态 | 方向 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 14:00 ET | FOMC statement联邦公开市场委员会 - 决定和声明 | 以 10 比 2 的投票结果将利率维持在 3.75% 到 4.00% 是本轮周期中最鹰派的结果,金价当晚上涨至 4,069.20。 库克州长在担任州长后的第一次反对意见中表示反对,哈马克总统则反对加息四分之一个百分点,而新的措辞,即积累更多信息将有助于决定政策路径,被市场解读为一个信号加息即将到来。 周五添加的是该声明的价格:投票支持该声明的两名反对者计划对其进行解释,而市场对鹰派立场的回应是下跌 3.6%。 | 利空 |
| Oct 28, 14:30 ET | Kevin Warsh美联储主席 - 新闻发布会 | 拒绝指导本身就是一种立场,市场将其解读为温和鸽派。主席 Warsh 拒绝对 12 月份的走势发表任何评论,他表示信贷条件已经收紧,但不同意紧缩,并表示 9 月份的降息对通胀的影响慢于预期。 四天后,市场在同一次会议上定价了 72.4% 的加息可能性,因此拒绝指导并没有削弱 12 月合约。 | 中性 |
| Oct 29, 22:39 to 23:29 Beijing | Kevin Hassett白宫国家经济委员会 - 对发布的评论 | 一位白宫官员告诉美联储如何处理下一次通胀数据,这是一个新变量,而且不是一个鸽派变量。主任哈塞特表示,如果 10 月份消费者价格和个人消费支出数据强劲,政府将推动美联储加息,并在发布后重申了这一立场。 无论如何,周五金价下跌 3.6%,这是本周期第一次紧缩的政治顺风和金价指向相反的方向。 | 利空 |
| Oct 29, 15:15 CET | Christine Lagarde欧洲央行行长 - 货币政策决定、声明和问答 | 在 2 月份总统下台的情况下维持 2.50% 的存款利率是一个决定中的两个故事。 欧洲央行在 9 月份提高 25 个基点后于 10 月 29 日举行利率决议,能源价格是谈判双方的主要论点。 周五的欧洲会议上又增加了来自同一机构的三个项目:没有利率决定的管理委员会会议、预期通胀上升的第四季度专业预测员调查以及关于欧洲采用人工智能的演讲,这些内容当天对欧元的影响均不超过百分之五。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 08:00 ET | Thomas Cook and Beth Hammack美联储理事 - 计划解释他们的异议,但未证实任何言论 | 支持加息的三票中的两票本应在周五上午公开解释,但截至本版撰写时,两人的言论均未得到证实。 库克州长在作为州长的第一次反对意见中投票支持加息 25 个基点,而哈马克总统则在公开场合辩称政策不够严格,小幅但更频繁的加息更为可取,两人都被列入在东部时间 08:00 左右发表讲话的名单。 这里没有对他们两人所说的内容做出任何断言,因为没有任何内容得到证实。这是周五记录中最大的一个空白,它是被陈述的,而不是被填补的。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 09:30 ET | Thomas Barkin里士满联邦储备银行行长 - Sirius XM 电台采访 | 前进的方向很简单,问题是步伐,这是消除了鹰派紧迫性的鹰派立场。总统巴尔金表示,通胀高企,需求稳定,失业率相对较低,因此前进的方向相当简单,但当美联储不太落后于曲线时,渐进的方法是有意义的,他说问题是步伐。他还表示,他所在地区的企业面临着不断上升的成本压力,而且转嫁这些成本的意愿也越来越强,四五年的通胀上升让人们更容易主张更高的价格,而人工智能资本支出正在成为货币政策可以抑制的需求方通胀的一个来源。 他今年不是选民,明年就会成为选民,所以这是一个关于反对者联盟的信号,而不是一个决定。 | 利空 |
| Oct 30, 12:00 ET | Mary Daly旧金山联邦储备银行行长 - 在旧金山联储会议上的开幕致辞 | 这是美联储周五唯一一次完全没有提及利率路径的讲话,市场将其解读为缺乏信号,而不是一个信号。戴利总统表示,人工智能真正影响美联储对近期和中期政策的看法,并对价格稳定和就业最大化产生影响,她没有为 12 月的会议设定路径。 10月中旬,她曾表示美联储可能需要进一步加息以抑制通胀,但并没有在10月采取行动的紧迫性;星期五她也没有重复这句话。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 12:30 ET | Alberto Musalem圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长 - 影子公开市场委员会 | 需要进一步紧缩,而且很快,这是周五美联储官员使用的最直接的语言。总统穆萨利姆告诉影子公开市场委员会,通货膨胀率很高且基础广泛,并且可能持续存在,货币和金融状况仍然宽松,第三季度数据证实了经济的潜在实力,并且很快需要进一步收紧货币政策,因为政策不适合降低通货膨胀。 该官员与本报告上一版本仅在观察名单上列出了一个名字,没有记录任何评论。 | 利空 |
| Oct 30, 13:30 ET | Lorie Logan达拉斯联邦储备银行行长 - 戴维森学院活动 | 至少两次加息,来自于 2026 年投票且有 12 月投票权的总统。 洛根总统表示,鉴于目前的前景,委员会显然应该实施至少两次 25 个基点的加息,据她估计,联邦基金利率目标范围至少比可以施加一些温和限制并开始将通胀恢复到目标水平低 50 个基点。 这是周五任何官员做出的最具体的远期承诺,无论如何,曲线前端在当天下午上涨了 7.50 个基点。 | 利空 |
| Oct 29, 11:00 Beijing | Kazuo Ueda日本央行行长 - 决定和新闻发布会 | 以 8 比 1 的比例反对加息并加速交易所交易基金销售,这是日本央行所做的最积极的无所事事。政策利率维持在 1.25%,只有高田一人反对支持 1.5%,并且央行修改了其交易所交易基金处置参考。 行长上田表示核心通胀已达到目标,这与市场所需的说法不同,日元兑美元在纽约时段收盘走强,从 157.96 升至 157.37。 | 中性 |
| Oct 28, 15:00 ET | Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand同一天另外两个决定,每个方向一个 | 一家央行加息,另一家央行出人意料地维持利率不变,两者都与美元走势相关,而不是与金属相关。加拿大央行于 10 月 28 日将利率上调 25 个基点至 2.50%,新西兰联储维持利率不变。 周五加元兑美元收盘走强,从 1.3986 收于 1.3956,因此利率决定继续发挥作用,而金属则不然。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 08:30 ET | US employment cost index美国劳工统计局-第三季度发布,北京时间20:30发布 | 早上的表现最疲软,金属还是下跌,跌幅是自 6 月份以来最大的单日跌幅。该指数本季度上涨 0.8%,预期上涨 0.8%,第二季度上涨 0.9%,工资和薪金上涨 0.7%,预期上涨 0.9%。 它于北京20:30发布,它在本版本的窗口内,包含其发布时间和共识数字。在该版本和纽约收盘之间出售的黄金并未在此数字上出售。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 08:30 ET | Canada gross domestic product加拿大统计局-8月发布,北京时间20:30发布 | 连续第二个月没有增长,9 月份已经出现下滑。 实际国内生产总值基本持平,为 0.0%,而预期为 0.2%,其中服务生产业下降 0.1%,其中石油和天然气开采量下降 1.4%,而 9 月份的提前预测为负 0.1%。 北京时间20:30发布,发布时间及共识数字均在本期窗口内。 | 利空 |
| Oct 30, 09:45 ET | Chicago manufacturing surveyMNI 和芝加哥供应管理研究所 - 10 月发布,北京时间 21:45 发布 | 经济放缓,而不是收缩,这对金属没有帮助。该指数为 55.3,预期为 56.1,9 月份为 58.8,仍处于扩张区域。 北京时间21:45发布,发布时间及共识数字均在本期窗口内。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, evening local | Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations10月30日霍尔木兹海峡事件 | 本报告上一版统计了24小时内有3艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡触雷并起火;周五晚上的计数为四艘。革命卫队海军宣布,10月30日下午,第四艘油轮在无视无线电警告后离开该海峡南部未经授权的航道时触雷并起火,该油轮载有超过200万桶原油。英国海事贸易运营部另外报告称,一艘船只在拉旺岛以南约 40 海里处被一枚不明弹丸击中左舷并起火,船员已确认安全。 油价做出回应:西德克萨斯中质原油12月结算价为每桶104.12美元,上涨2.12美元,布伦特12月结算价为每桶117.64美元,上涨2.76美元,涨幅为2.40%,近月布伦特原油价格为113.40美元。这是其中第四个也是最大的一个统计,也是第一个将通胀冲动变成12月问题的统计。 | 利空 |
第 03 章
当日金价下跌 3.6% 时,美元收盘走软,六大主要货币中有五个货币对美元走强,这是两者首次出现如此严重的差距。
10月30日纽约时段美元指数收于101.878,跌幅0.16%,其中欧元报1.1167,英镑报1.3394,日元报157.37,瑞郎报0.8236,加元报1.3956,瑞典克朗报9.8170。另外两种口径的相同接近值分别为 101.9500(下跌 0.17%)和 101.97(上涨 0.08%),并且所有这三种口径都被报告,而不是被选择。该网站自己的结构化文件在美国东部时间 16:54 参考滚动前收盘价,包含 1.11659、1.33921 和 157.528。
周五的美元走势是本报告与前一版本完全矛盾的部分。第 311 版认为,美元坚挺,而金属下跌,这就是普通渠道产生的结果。 10月30日纽约收盘价则相反:美元指数下跌0.16%至101.878,欧元坚挺百分之五,英镑坚挺四分之一,瑞士法郎坚挺三分之一,加元坚挺五分之一,瑞典克朗坚挺近一半,只有日元走弱。 所以普通频道没有火,报告必须这么说,而不是悄悄保留旧句子。 调度中还有比索引本身更重要的第二件事。周五,科技股大跌:标准普尔500指数下跌1.82%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.86%,费城半导体指数下跌7.2%,英特尔下跌28.94%,SanDisk下跌13.47%,而能源板块上涨1.91%,消费必需品上涨1.38%。这是市场上贝塔系数最高的资产的轮换,而金属是本报告范围内贝塔系数最高的资产。这种轮换的避险部分进入了美国国债、英镑和瑞士法郎,这正是机构需要降低风险而不是需要对冲通胀时出现的模式。 周五的美元走势对黄金没有任何影响,金价还是下跌了 3.6%。 周末为这一走势增添了一个证据,它不是来自货币报价,因为没有货币报价。周六发布的一份中国市场报告称,外国资金以创纪录的金额流入美国科技股、公司债券和电网资产,而避险资金流向日元和瑞士法郎。 这是美元对冲解除的标志,周四晚上,同一市场不得不以加密货币筹集现金。在周五的报告中,瑞郎已经是最干净的套利者,当瑞郎兑美元下跌 3.6% 的当天,瑞郎兑美元上涨了 0.34%。没有任何货币印刷的周末是报告一次结算与下一次结算之间的美元价格的唯一诚实方式。
数据
| 货币对 | 收盘 | 日变动 | 四季度预测与逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1167 | ▲ +0.05 | 本周欧元表现最为出色,而黄金对此并不在意,周五两者首次出现背离。纽约收盘消息显示,10 月 30 日欧元兑美元汇率为 1.1167,之前为 1.1162,黄金下跌 3.6%。该网站自己的结构化文件在美国东部时间 16:54 的参考价为 1.11659,而之前的滚动收盘价为 1.11775,该收盘价是在每次民意调查而不是结算时重新计算的。伦敦时段欧元一度最高至1.1189,随后收于1.1201区域,欧洲央行29日维持利率不变,30日再次开会未有决定。 美元没有走强就不是金属下跌的原因,周五也不是。 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3394 | ▲ +0.25 | 秋季预算是本周最强劲的英镑故事,周五是它出现的日子。 英镑 10 月 30 日收于 1.3394,之前为 1.3361,涨幅为四分之一,这是收盘报告中六大主要货币中最大的每日变动,该网站自己的文件显示为 1.33921。 英镑走势是避险买盘可见的一个地方,它转向英镑和美国国债,而不是黄金。 |
| USD/JPY | 157.37 | ▼ -0.37 | 日本央行在这里做了工作,方向是温和地反对黄金,而不是支持它。日元在 8 比 1 维持在 1.25% 后走强,高田反对支持 1.5%,行长 Ueda 表示核心通胀已达到目标。该货币对在伦敦时段一度低至157.58,随后回升至157.16;纽约收盘价为157.37,之前为157.96。 这是当天兑美元走软的六大主要货币中唯一的一个,而且走软的原因与美元的大方向无关。 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3956 | ▼ -0.21 | 美元兑加元连续三天下跌,既是一个美元故事,也是一个外交故事。 10 月 30 日,加元兑 1.3986 收于 1.3956,加拿大 8 月份国内生产总值持平于 0.0%,预期为 0.2%,而 9 月份已经下跌至负 0.1%。 增长持平和货币走强是一个利率差异的故事,这也是周五对黄金不起作用的通道。 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8236 | ▼ -0.34 | 瑞郎是本报告中最干净的套利者,周五它对金属进行了套利。瑞士法郎 10 月 30 日收盘于 0.8236 兑 0.8264,这是收盘时六种货币中第二大波动。 当技术股票综合体崩溃且收益率下降时,出价将进入不带有股票风险和久期风险的货币,而法郎就是它的落脚点。 |
| USD/SEK | 9.8170 | ▼ -0.44 | 瑞典克朗在收盘时出现了最大的单次走势,但市场上没有人对此进行报道。瑞典克朗 10 月 30 日收盘价为 9.8170,兑 9.8608,下跌 0.44%。 六种主要货币中的五种兑美元汇率坚挺,足以发挥重要作用,金属下跌 3.6%;这是上一版本的美元固定读数无法产生的算术。 |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.878 | ▼ -0.16 | 美元走软和金属在同一交易日下跌 3.6% 是一种异常现象,它有一个值得检验而不是假设的机械解释。纽约收盘消息显示该指数为 101.878,较前一交易日的 102.037 下跌 0.16%。另外两个口径的相同收盘价则分别为 101.9500 和 101.97,分别为下跌 0.17% 和上涨 0.08%,这三个指标是并列报告的,而不是一致的。该网站自己的结构化文件不包含指数级别,但包含其自己的 16:54 ET 参考值的六种货币。 第 311 版写道,美元坚挺,而金属下跌,这是普通渠道产生的结果,该阅读已被点名撤回。 |
第 04 章
流动复合体没有清算,金价突破了低于其的唯一公布的目标,而市场上最大的机构目标现在距离该目标还远百分之二十到三十。
美国东部时间周五 15:30 发布的 10 月 27 日商品期货报告显示,管理资金净多头合约为 105,562 份合约,本周增加 1,356 份合约,未平仓合约为 396,810 份。 SPDR Gold Trust 于 10 月 30 日增持 0.57 吨,至 1,041.653 吨,前一天减持 2.28 吨。唯一公布的低于金价的年终目标——新华财经分析师的区间——不再如此。
本报告中公布的三个数字在结算时改变了符号或改变了大小,其中之一就是下一节存在的原因。首先,上一版超出其截止点的商品期货报告已经发布,它显示管理资金净多头为 105,562 份合约,本周增加 1,356 份,未平仓合约为 396,810 份,因此每个柜台一直在等待的去杠杆化并没有发生。其次,包装商当天并没有放弃吨位:SPDR Gold Trust 增加了 0.57 吨至 1,041.653 吨,而前一天放弃了 2.28 吨,因此前一版本使用的流量叙述在来源处是相反的。第三,本报告表格中唯一公布的低于金价的目标不再如此:新华财经分析师的年终区间为 3,900 至 4,025 美元,比之前的截止点低 4.38 美元,目前比结算价高 23.11 美元。最后一个变化是本页上最重要的数字,因为它删除了本报告唯一发布的下限,并将金属价格置于桌面上任何房子已发布的最低水平之下。桌面上的所有其他目标在周五都变得更加遥远,并且没有一个被修改。 基金数据没有说明的是抛售从何而来,答案就在股票综合体中:矿商的下跌幅度约为金价的两倍,这是保证金信号,而不是对黄金看法的改变。 周末产生了第一个相反方向的流量数据。周六公布的 Wind 数据显示,截至 10 月 23 日当周,中国 20 只上市黄金上市交易基金吸纳 5.23 亿元人民币,放弃 1.371 元。截至10月30日当周,合计规模由10月初的2979.1亿元降至2839.6亿元,一个月内缩水近140亿元。 因此,世界上最大的包装纸在周五买入,而中国最大的上市国内综合体在同一周卖出,这些是不同的衡量标准,在这里不进行协调。
数据
- 不间断的流动是官方的流动,也是黄金下跌 3.6% 当天唯一流动的流动。 中国人民银行在 9 月份连续第 23 个月成为净买家,将官方黄金储备从 7,673 万盎司增加到 7,747 万盎司,周五 SPDR 黄金信托基金增加了 0.57 吨,达到 1,041.653 吨,而黄金在下降3.6%。商品期货仓位也不是抛售的根源:10 月 27 日的报告显示,管理资金净多头为 105,562 份合约,本周增加 1,356 份,未平仓合约为 396,810 份,其中多头合约为 122,508 份合约,空头合约为 16,946 份合约。 当金属在三周内损失了三分之一的价值时,包装买入,期货订单增加,央行继续买入,这使得股票综合体成为唯一可能出现抛售的地方。
- 黄金的贴现率论点在结算时比交易日中点时更为强烈,并且在市场使用的框架中也更为强烈。根据财政部自己的日终文件,十年期实际收益率从 2.63% 下跌至 2.60%,而十年期名义收益率下降了 4 个基点,而十年期盈亏平衡则压缩了 1 个基点。两年期国债下跌了五个基点,三十年期国债下跌了一个基点,因此曲线在前端变陡,下午屏幕上十年期与两年期利差从 33.20 个基点扩大至 34.80 个基点。 实际收益率下降降低了持有非收益资产的机会成本,而前端反弹最猛烈的是市场表示鹰派路径已被定价,而不是迫在眉睫。12月会议结束时,至少加息25个基点的可能性为72.4%,这已经足够正式,表明金属的问题是定位问题而不是政策问题。
- 本周末,金价下方的需求面又多了一个证据,它来自官方买家,而不是资金流。中国人民银行9月份连续第23个月成为净买家,将官方储备从7673万盎司提升至7747万盎司,10月30日,央行党委重申适度宽松的货币政策,流动性充裕。 连续二十三个月买入的官方买家是该页面上唯一一个其仓位不取决于价格的参与者,并且不会在追加保证金时出售。
- 本系列一直在等待的清算出现在股市,而不是金属,而且比金属本身的跌幅还要大。纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.86%,标准普尔 500 指数下跌 1.82%,费城半导体指数下跌 7.2%,其中英特尔下跌 28.94%,SanDisk 下跌 13.47%,Reddit 下跌 29.28%。 金矿股的跌幅大约是金属价格的两倍:VanEck 金矿股交易所交易基金下跌 5.91%,KraneShares 金矿股基金下跌 6.81%,iShares 全球矿股基金下跌 5.65%,Harmony Gold 下跌 8.14%,而金银交易所交易基金下跌 3.47% 和 3.51%。 这个比率是保证金事件的标志。而不是对黄金看法的改变,这就是为什么黄金和矿商一起下跌,而黄金本身的通道根本没有移动。
- 全年供应面一直在悄悄抛售,而各国央行一直在悄悄买入,周五石油冲击使 12 月通胀数据小数点后第四位。俄罗斯央行在 9 月份出售了 6 吨黄金,这是连续第十个月出售黄金,也是 2019 年以来的最低储备,哈萨克斯坦计划将黄金在其外汇储备中的份额从 78% 削减至 75%,按当前价格计算约为 14 吨。世界黄金协会截至10月23日的一周数据显示,全球实物支持基金净流出约12.1亿美元,其中美国净流出17亿美元,而欧洲则净流出4.85亿美元。周五,霍尔木兹海峡迎来了当天的第四艘油轮,运载量超过 200 万桶,推动布伦特 12 月原油价格上涨 2.40%,至 117.64 美元,西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨 2.08%,至 104.12 美元。 一天四艘油轮的升级是一个石油供应故事,它出现在 10 月份的消费者价格和个人消费支出数据上,然后在12 月的会议,它对金属所做的唯一事情就是提高金属必须清算的实际利率。
- 打破金属的流动性从来没有在金属中,周末终于给出了数字。币安被盗后,大约 13 亿美元的杠杆加密货币头寸被清算,比特币跌至六周低点,接近 76,400 美元,以太币跌至两个月低点,接近 2,178 美元,其中约 30 亿被盗资产被冻结在链上,交易所用公司资金支付其余资产。 Chainaanalysis 和 TRM Labs 追踪到这些资金来自一个朝鲜组织,而攻击本身是在周四纽约收市后的几个小时内开始的,因此它发生在股票清算之前,而不是之后。 当仓位必须因追加保证金而平仓时,金属是本报告范围内卖出速度最快的东西,周五引用的技术分析师正是这么说的。这是一种熊市情况,不需要单一的看跌黄金观点即可发挥作用,也是本页流量数据无法看到的情况,因为流量数据涵盖了黄金,而不是必须筹集的现金。
- 新华财经分析师,年末区间(10月30日)3,900+0.60%这是公布的表格中唯一一个曾经低于黄金的水平,而在结算时,它比黄金高出 23.11 美元。新华社财经分析师公布的年末区间为 3,900 至 4,025,计算时取中点。 上一版本的截止价为 3,904.38,该金属比该范围高出 4 美元,而本版本的结算价为 3,876.89,比其下限低 23.11 美元,因此本报告表格中的单一公布下限已被清除,并且该金属下方没有可供参考的公布水平。 该金属在该网站自己的五分钟系列中交易至 3,872.99,并以官方日线为3,872.24,均低于3,900。
- 道富环球投资顾问公司,2027 年第一季度业绩(10 月 30 日)4,750+22.52%一家机构在金价突破 4,000 点两天后提高了对牛市低端的信念,这是有关交易台的事实,而不是有关市场的事实。道富银行将其 2027 年第一季度情景区间维持在 4,750 美元,而结算价与该数字的距离已从 21.66% 扩大到 22.52%。 2027 年第一季度的范围是对尚未开始的季度的预测,它已发布,因此在此表中。
- 摩根士丹利,2026 年第四季度(2025 年 12 月展望)4,800+23.81%此表中最古老的数字也是最接近被标记的数字。摩根士丹利于 2025 年 12 月发布了 2026 年第四季度黄金看涨价为每盎司 4,800 美元,理由是持续加息将被美元疲软所吸收,目前结算价与该数字的距离为 23.82%,而之前的截止点为 22.94%。 此页面上的每个机构目标在周五都变得更加遥远,并且没有一个被修改,这是发布目标表中可能发生的最糟糕的事情。
- 高盛,2026 年 12 月基本情景(2025 年 12 月展望)4,900+26.39%这是表格上最古老、最激进的数字,也是市场距离最远的数字。2026 年 12 月的基本假设为每盎司 4,900 美元,存在上行风险,央行购买假设已从 25.50% 扩大到 26.40%。 值得保留的部分是假设,而不是数字:需求假设是央行,周五央行的资金流并没有停止。
- 摩根大通金属团队,2026 年底(2025 年 12 月展望)5,055+30.39%表上最乐观的公布目标附带最具体的需求假设,而该假设是值得保留的部分。摩根大通的金属团队预计 2026 年底金价为每盎司 5,055 美元,目前比结算价高出 30.39%,而之前的截止价为 29.47%。 距离 30% 的目标并不描述预测,它描述的是找到最后买家的实际买家的水平,即使这不是交易,这也是真实的事情。
- 国联期货,2026年高点(2025年12月展望)5,000+28.97%预计今年将创高点并命名高点的房屋比预计今年收高的房屋更有用,而且该房屋还命名了其未预期的机制。国联期货认为,今年高点将会出现,并将其定为 5,000 美元,目前比结算价高出 28.98%,而上次截止时的价格为 28.06%。 它自己的理由是,央行购买将是一种机制,而央行在 9 月份连续二十三个月继续购买。
每个百分比均根据 10 月 30 日纽约结算价 3,876.89 美元/盎司计算,该结算价来自该网站自己的官方每日金条和结构化报价文件,该文件是结算价而非实时打印,并且目标字符串按发布时报价。作为范围的目标在算术的中点处取,并且该范围留在组织列中。 这些行彼此不一致,也没有断言中位数,因为消息来源在不同的日期和不同的参考价格下达到了目标,而它们之间的中位数将是一个没有任何意义的数字。 本版本中的第一行改变了符号,这是表格中最有用的数字。在上一版本的截止点 3,904.38 处,新华财经分析师的年终范围为 3,900 至4,025 位于金属下方;在结算时,它位于其上方,这意味着本报告表格中唯一公布的底部已被清除,并且没有低于该金属的公布水平可供依靠。
第 05 章
黄金价格跌破本页唯一公布的水平(曾经是底部),并且在没有一个小时盘整的情况下就达到了 4,000、3,970 和 3,900 点。
3,869.30是周五交易时段的四个公布口径中最低的低点,3,872.99是该网站自己的五分钟系列的最低点,4,000点被清仓,而日收盘价没有高于该点,欧洲下午触及3,970点,纽约时段触及3,900点,10月29日结算价4,021.28现在是上方阻力位而不是参考。
本系列的最后一篇读物描述了一个上方有破碎的整数且下方没有公布的下限的市场。周五结算后,破发轮数已从一级变为三级,公布的楼层也从稀缺变为缺席。单日冲出三级,没有一个能长期守住:4,000,最后一次在亚洲午后印于 4,003.13,再也没有被重访; 3,970,于欧洲下午 3,967.03 拍摄,从未收回;北京时段纽约时段报3,900,报3,899.99,此后6小时内金价又下跌27美元。收盘价为 3,876.89 美元,低于新华财经分析师公布的 3,900 至 4,025 年末区间,这意味着本报告目标表中唯一公布的水平现在位于上方而非下方,并且收盘价比当日四个公布口径中的最低价(Kitco 自己的记录为 3,869.30)高出 7.59 美元。 上海晚间交易时段也出现了同样的走低走势以当地货币计,黄金T+D报每克831.10元,上海期货交易所主力合约报831.68元,均在本版早前数据公布后收盘。 下周报告所有这些内容时,控制的一个机械项目是时钟:美国夏令时将于今晚(11 月 1 日星期日)结束,因此从明天起,每次东部时间 08:30 的发布都会从北京时间 20:30 移至 21:30,本报告自己的截止时间也是如此。
数据
| 类型 | 价位 | 依据与含义 |
|---|---|---|
| 强阻力 | 3,900 / 3,936 / 4,000 | 三个数字,都是周五打印的,而且没有一个是桌面发明的整数。第一个是 3,900,五分钟的系列在 10 月 30 日北京 22:24 打印出低于 0.01 的价格,然后随着金价又下跌 27 美元而保持不变;现在它是上方阻力位,而不是上一版本描述的支撑位。第二个是 3,936.21,是北京时间 21:33 纽约现货交易时段的第一个价格,它很重要,因为它是美国交易时段开始损失的部分的价格。第三个是4000,每日收盘价均未高于该价位,最后打印于北京时间30日13点43分,报4003.13。 10 月 29 日的结算价为 4,021.28,位于所有三者之上,并且是早期版本用作 2.91% 下跌参考的数字;现在的管理费用为 144.39 美元。 |
| 中枢 | 3,873 / 3,877 / 3,936 | 区间是争论的价格,而不是预测。北京时间 04:48,周五五分钟系列的最低价为 3,872.99,官方每日柱线为 3,872.24,结构化报价文件的滚动窗口为 3,870.20,Kitco 自己的记录为 3,869.30,这是四个中最低的,也是唯一一个来自来源的记录在本网站之外。结算价为 3,876.89 美元,较该网站系列低点低 3.90 美元,较公布的最低价低 7.59 美元,纽约时段开盘价为 3,936.21 美元。 四个口径的一交易日低一结算是这一行的诚实写法,它们之间的价差仍然小于当日开盘和收盘之间的价差。在本版早先的读数之后,上海晚盘于 10 月 31 日北京时间 02:30 收盘,以本币计算也出现同样的走低:黄金 T+D 报每克 831.10 元,下跌 3.11%,黄金Au99.99报833.00元,跌2.55%,上海期货交易所黄金主力合约报831.68元,跌3.51%。 |
| 强支撑 | 3,870 / 3,869 / 3,800 | 3,870 现在是一个已形成的水平,而不是一个被防守的水平,这是自上次阅读本系列以来该表最重要的变化。 北京 10 月 31 日 04:48,五分钟的系列报道为 3,872.99,官方每日柱线为 3,872.24,滚动报价文件为 3,870.20,Kitco 的记录为3,869.30,所以3,870是所有四个口径所指向的区域,也是周一必须守住的区域。其下方的 3,800 点是该金属自 10 月 29 日结算以来未曾交易过的一轮参考点,也是周五公布的技术观点中称为下一个测试的水平;它在这里作为一个观看级别而不是作为发布的楼层发布,因为命名它的房子发布了一个级别而不是预测。 该金属下方也没有公布的机构目标,因为新华社财经分析师的年终区间 3,900 至 4,025 点在周五被清除,现在位于该区间之上。这就是周五与今年其他交易日之间的结构性差异:该表下方的底部曾经是某人的预测,现在不再是任何人的预测。 |
| T+D 支撑 | Nov 1 OPEC+ / Nov 2 ISM + Caixin / Nov 3 Midterms / Nov 4 Refunding / Nov 6 Payrolls | 11 月 5 日星期四,英国央行、挪威央行、加拿大中央银行和墨西哥央行均计划公布首次索赔和挑战者号裁员数据。 11 月 6 日星期五,10 月就业报告预计将达成共识,人数约为 55,000 人,之前为 29,000 人,此外还有加拿大就业情况、密歇根大学情绪调查以及来自 Logan、Williams、Musalem 和 Bowman 的美联储发言人。 一项机械变化适用于所有这些人:美国夏令时将于今晚(11 月 1 日星期日)结束,因此每次东部时间 08:30 发布的时间从 20:30 移至 20:30。明天21:30北京,本报告自己的截止时间也随之移动。 |
- 1周一 - 亚洲开市,以及追加保证金是单日事件还是机制金价收于 3,876.89 美元,较四个已公布交易日低点的最低价低 7.59 美元,此前一个交易日包装商增持了 0.57 吨合约,期货订单增加了 1,356 份合约,美元下跌 0.16%。 本版现在可以提出而一小时前无法提出的问题是,每条黄金流量呈绿色时下跌 3.6% 是否是一个仓位反转事件,或者第一份没有公布下限的走势报告,因为唯一公布的低于金属的水平已经被清除,现金需求完全来自金属之外。周末根本没有公布任何报告,所以第一个观察是周一的亚洲开盘。 解决问题的条件是周一亚洲开盘价保持在 3,900 上方,美元仍接近 101.878;亚洲突破 3,870 点将表明流量数据迟到而不是错误,周一交易中比特币保持在六周低点附近而金属反弹则表明保证金通道已关闭。
- 2周一 - 全球资金流量报告将说明 0.57 吨是一天还是一周世界黄金协会的每周资金流向发布是本系列核心数据集中的下一个数字,周五给了它一份奇怪的工作。上一期报道称,截至 10 月 23 日的一周结束了连续 13 周的全球资金流入,其中美国净流出 17 亿美元,净流出 12.1 亿美元。 上周五金价下跌 3.6%,SPDR Gold Trust 仍增持 0.57 吨,因此截至 10 月 30 日当周的流量释放必须将价格的红色周与包装中的绿色周相协调,而根据 Wind 的数据,在中国,同一周 20 家上市黄金基金流出了 13.71 亿元人民币。 改变本报告框架的条件是全球综合体和美国包装价格变动的一周。相反的方向,因为这是前一版本出错的相同替换的签名,这意味着需要观察的变量是复合体而不是包装器。
- 3周末——发生的四件事没有价格来定价在美国东部时间周五 16:00 收盘和本期截止之间,有四项进展,但没有一份报告,而周一的开盘价同时出现了四项。第一个是币安创纪录的盗窃案,大约 63 亿美元,始于周四纽约收盘后,清算了约 13 亿美元的杠杆加密货币头寸,并将比特币带到了 76,400 美元附近的六周低点。第二个是霍尔木兹海峡,革命卫队海军周六下午宣布,第五艘油轮在东部禁区触雷并起火,英国海事贸易行动部又发布了两份通知,一份是关于一艘在拉万岛以南约四十海里处的船只被不明弹丸击中的,另一份是关于一艘油轮在离开海峡时被击中的。第三个是据报道但未经证实的美国准备最早在11月4日,即中期选举后的第二天对伊朗发动打击,国务卿表示尚未决定,而伊朗外长表示,海峡重新开放计划已从7天缩短为两天。第四是石油市场本身,周五布伦特12月合约到期结算价为117.64美元,仍在交易的1月合约收于113.43美元,差距为4.21美元,这是一个日历,而不是崩溃,而运输石油的成本比石油上涨得更远:据报道,中东至中国的超大型原油船定期租船费率为每天1,351,405美元,而每吨不到50,000美元。一年前,海峡过境的战争险保额为船体价值的 7.5% 至 10%,而危机前为 0.2%。 改变本报告框架的条件是周一开盘,忽略所有四个,因为这意味着市场正在交易最后一份报告,而不是周末。
- 4下周——11月3日的中期选举,11月6日的就业报告,以及令他们都感动的时钟变化本报告的下一个版本将围绕四个过时的事情构建,但它们都不是价格。第一个是 11 月 3 日的美国中期选举,其公布的定价足够接近,足以成为一个立场而不是一个问题:9 月底的预测市场定价显示民主党众议院的得票率约为 91.5%,民主党参议院的得票率约为 63%,而专业预测者的另一项民意调查显示众议院支持率为 220 个民主党席位对 200 个共和党席位有15个尚未决定。第二份报告是 11 月 6 日公布的 10 月份就业报告,一致同意人数约为 55,000 人,此前为 29,000 人,这是自委员会持鹰派立场以来第一份劳动力市场报告。第三个是美国财政部11月4日公布的季度退款公告,这是唯一一个可以自行推动曲线长端的日历项目。第四份是 11 月 4 日发布的 10 月 30 日商品期货报告,这是该报告一直在等待的清算在已经到达加密货币之后是否到达金属的第一次艰难考验。时钟今晚移动:美国夏令时于 11 月 1 日(星期日)结束,因此从明天起,每次东部时间 08:30 发布的时间都会从北京时间 20:30 移至 21:30,而 12 月 8 日至 9 日的会议将在一周内举行,其发布现在会晚一个小时。
- 5密切关注——将改变本报告框架的四个数字四个数字,每个数字都会改变读数,因为没有条件的观察列表就是希望列表。首先,10月30日收盘曲线上的十年期国债收益率为4.94%,而10月29日为4.98%,实际十年期国债收益率为2.60%,而10月29日为2.63%:如果实际收益率持续下降,金属持续下跌,贴现率就不是机制,本报告应该停止伸手去拿它。其次,美元指数为 101.878 兑 102.037:如果美元从这里坚挺并且金属也随之坚挺,那么周五是异常情况,而不是规则。第三,10月27日报告中的管理资金净多头为105,562份合约,本周增加1,356份合约:如果11月4日到期的10月30日报告显示减少了一万多份合约,那么清算是迟到的,而不是没有。第四,SPDR 黄金信托在 10 月 30 日增加 0.57 吨后达到 1,041.653 吨:如果下一次每日印刷是减少,那么包装商的出价将是一日事件,并且本报告中的流量论点减弱。
- 6美联储名单——四名有记录的官员,两名没有记录的持不同政见者,以及记录现在的内容周五的美联储讲话名单产生了四项可用的声明和一项空白,并且该空白被命名而不是填补。这位圣路易斯总统表示,很快就需要进一步收紧政策。达拉斯总统表示,至少两次加息 25 个基点,联邦基金利率目标范围至少比限制水平低 50 个基点。里士满总统表示,前进的方向很简单,问题是步伐,并补充说人工智能资本支出正在成为需求方通胀的一个来源。这位旧金山总统谈到了人工智能,但没有提及利率路径。 库克州长和哈马克总统这两位反对 10 月 28 日加息的人被列出来解释他们的投票,但两人的言论都没有得到证实,因此这里对他们的言论没有任何断言。周末没有美联储官员发表讲话,窗口内唯一的新美联储项目是主席宣布更改会议日历,八次年度会议之一成为战略讨论,从 2027 年秋季开始不进行利率投票。改变本报告框架的条件是 12 月份的定价高于 80%,因为市场在 72.4% 的情况下告诉本报告,政策路径已定价,而问题出在其他地方。
- 7股票综合体和加密货币综合体——周五唯一可能出现抛售的地方金矿股的跌幅大约是金条价格的两倍,这个比率就是整体的结果。VanEck金矿商交易所交易基金下跌5.91%,KraneShares金矿商基金下跌6.81%,iShares全球矿商基金下跌5.65%,Harmony Gold下跌8.14%,而金矿基金下跌3.47%和3.51%。 当矿商价格下跌两倍于金属时,抛售是保证金事件和风险事件,而不是对黄金看法的改变,而且这种情况发生在股票中,因为股票带有杠杆。周末在一个周末不交易的市场上也显示了相同的机制。币安被盗后,大约 13 亿美元的杠杆加密货币头寸被清算,比特币跌至 76,400 美元附近的六周低点,以太坊跌至两个月低点,而且攻击是在周四收盘后开始的,因此是在股票清算之前而不是之后。改变本报告解读的条件是周一交易时段,矿商再次表现不佳,而黄金交易所交易基金持有,因为这将确认股票渠道作为整个机制,而金银基金跟随矿商下跌的交易时段将意味着股票渠道已经触及金属本身。
- 8网站自己的日历中没有包含的内容 - 11 月 1 日至 6 日的时间表,从网站外部构建并如此标记该网站自己的结构化日历停止在已经运行的事件上,因此本报告中的未来一周是根据已发布的第三方日历汇总的,并在此处进行了标记。 11 月 1 日星期日,七家主要生产商在将 11 月产量保持在 9 月水平后召开会议,确定 12 月产量。 11 月 2 日星期一,美国制造业状况预计公布,市场共识值为 54.7,财新私人制造业调查也将到期; 中国官方 10 月指数已于北京 10 月 31 日星期六 09:30 发布,制造业指数为 49.3%,而之前为 50.1%,本报告更正了同一版本的周六草稿,该草稿称中国官方指数将于周一公布。 11 月 3 日星期二,美国中期选举将举行,预计将发布职位空缺数据和澳大利亚储备银行的决定。11 月 4 日星期三,ADP 就业报告定于 75,000 点和 65,000 点,之前为 90,000 点,同时还将公布服务业调查、美国财政部季度退款公告、欧元区通胀、日本央行会议纪要以及瑞典央行、波兰国家银行和巴西央行的决定。 11 月 5 日星期四,英国央行、挪威央行、波兰中央银行和墨西哥央行均计划公布首次索赔和挑战者号裁员数据。 11 月 6 日星期五,10 月就业报告预计将由约 55,000 人达成共识,此前为 29,000 人,此外还有加拿大就业情况、密歇根大学情绪调查以及来自洛根、威廉姆斯、穆萨勒姆和鲍曼的美联储发言人。
LIN 的黄金周记
每周一封信,讲清楚这周金价为什么动
每周日一封:这一周的黄金、下周要盯的数据、值得再读的几篇。不卖信号,不发广告。
每封信底部都能一键退订,邮箱不会给任何人。
数据来源 · 178›
- 1Reuters, October 29, 2026: third-quarter advance real gross domestic product consensus of 3.2 percent annualised against 2.2 percent in the second quarter, as reported in the site's own flash package
- 2The Paper citing Wind and Xinhua, October 30: spot gold fell 1.11 percent to 4,021.28 dollars an ounce and COMEX December 2026 gold futures fell 0.45 percent to 4,033.30 dollars an ounce on October 29
- 3Xinhua via China Financial Information Network, October 30, 2026: the most active December 2026 COMEX gold contract fell 18.30 dollars to 4,033.30 dollars, a 0.45 percent decline, with December silver at 52.220 dollars, down 2.69 percent
- 4Xinhua via The Paper, October 30, 2026: the dollar index fell 0.17 percent to 102.037 at the New York close, with the euro at 1.1162, sterling at 1.3361, the yen at 157.96, the Swiss franc at 0.8264, the Canadian dollar at 1.3986 and the Swedish krona at 9.8608
- 5Xinhua via The Paper, October 30: New York stock indices on October 29 closed with the Dow at 52,342.56 down 0.25 percent, the S&P 500 at 7,720.39 down 0.30 percent and the Nasdaq at 26,184.72 down 1.38 percent
- 6Xinhua via The Paper, October 30: the December WTI contract settled 78 cents lower at 102.00 dollars a barrel and December Brent settled 44 cents lower at 114.88 dollars a barrel
- 7CCTV and Eurostat via Tencent News and stcn.com, October 30, 2026: euro area third-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.4 percent quarter on quarter and 1.3 percent year on year in the flash estimate, with Ireland up 5.5 percent, Lithuania down 1.0 percent and France down 0.1 percent
- 8Daily Economic News, October 30, 2026: spot gold closed October 29 at 4,021.30 dollars an ounce, down 1.16 percent, and State Street Global Advisors maintained its first-quarter 2027 band at 4,750 to 5,500 dollars while cutting the probability of that scenario from 70 to 60 percent
- 9International Finance News, October 30, 2026: October 29 equity closes including the DAX at 26,039.68 up 1.31 percent, the CAC 40 at 7,970.00 up 1.05 percent, the FTSE 100 at 10,722.07 up 0.26 percent, the Shanghai Composite at 3,651.43 down 0.82 percent, the Shenzhen Component at 11,138.20 down 2.92 percent, the ChiNext at 2,517.59 down 4.45 percent and the Nikkei at 64,659.47 up 1.10 percent
- 10International Finance News, October 30: Shanghai Gold Exchange gold Au99.99 at 860.10 yuan a gram, down 0.60 percent, gold T+D at 859.10 yuan, down 0.90 percent, and the Shanghai main contract at 860.70 yuan, down 1.02 percent
- 11Kitco News citing Heraeus, October 19, 2026: Bloomberg-tracked gold exchange-traded fund holdings reached a 2026 peak of 101.3 million ounces on October 8, up 5.3 percent from the 96.2 million ounce July 20 low
- 12Kitco News citing Heraeus, October 19: the National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to cut gold from about 78 percent to 75 percent of international reserves by year end after holdings climbed to 386 tonnes
- 13Kitco, October 30, 2026: a commentary headline published on the same day arguing that a drop below 4,000 dollars should not be feared because the bull market is not broken, and a separate report that precious metals traders are preparing to defend 4,000 dollars gold while a break of 60 dollars in silver would be catastrophic
- 14Heraeus precious metals analysts via Kitco, October 19, 2026: India confirmed that bank and nominated agency imports of silver, gold and platinum are subject to 3 percent integrated goods and services tax, which banks have in practice been paying since April while the market waits for a decision on the import duty regime
- 15Datastreet and Summa Money citing the World Gold Council, October 26, 2026: for the week ended October 23 gold funds redeemed 3.01 billion dollars against 1.80 billion of subscriptions, ending thirteen consecutive weeks of inflow, with the United States leading redemptions at 1.7 billion dollars
- 16Datastreet and Summa Money citing the World Gold Council, October 26: the United Kingdom took in 321.8 million dollars, Switzerland 64.3 million, Germany 45.8 million and China 21.4 million, with year-to-date Chinese inflows of 10.43 billion dollars and United Kingdom inflows of 10.22 billion
- 17Informist citing the World Gold Council, October 19, 2026: gold funds took in 1.90 billion dollars in the week ended October 16 against 627.6 million the week before, with North America at 1.01 billion, Asia at 652.9 million and Europe at 242.5 million, and holdings up 13.7 tonnes to 4,278.9 tonnes
- 18Informist citing the World Gold Council, October 12, 2026: North America was in net outflow of 111.2 million dollars in the week ended October 9 while Asia took in 376 million and Europe 370 million, with holdings at 4,265 tonnes
- 19Crux Investor, positions dated October 20: managed-money net long gold fell from 345.5 tonnes on October 13 to 338.1 tonnes on October 20, and the Council's provisional estimates put North America at 13.1 tonnes of outflow against 4.3 tonnes of European inflow
- 20LBMA, week ended October 23: the afternoon gold benchmark fell 4.2 percent to about 4,013 dollars an ounce in a week in which the metal lost its worst performance since June
- 21Crux Investor, week ended October 23: global gold funds took in 10 billion dollars in September and a record 31 billion dollars in the third quarter
- 22World Gold Council, September 9, 2026: global physically backed gold funds attracted 18 billion dollars in August, the second largest monthly inflow on record, lifting holdings 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes and assets under management 16 percent to 615 billion dollars
- 23World Gold Council, August 11: the July 2026 report showing global gold funds added 3 billion dollars with holdings up 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes, Asian-listed funds supplying 616 million dollars and North America returning to inflow territory for the first time since spring
- 24China Energy Net and Qilu Evening News, December 24, 2025: Morgan Stanley's fourth-quarter 2026 gold call of 4,800 dollars an ounce, JPMorgan's end-2026 call of 5,055 dollars and Goldman's December 2026 base case of 4,900 dollars with upside risk
- 25China Energy Net and Qilu Evening News, December 25, 2025: Guolian Futures expected a 2026 gold high around 5,000 dollars an ounce, argued the November midterm election would constrain geopolitical volatility and weaken gold's safe-haven demand, and saw the metal holding up well without repeating 2025's pace
- 26NetEase citing Daily Economic News, October 30, 2026: China Gold closed at 19.23 yuan, down 3.32 percent and on its low for the day, Western Gold fell 3.06 percent, Chow Tai Seng rose 0.96 percent, Lao Feng Xiang rose 0.68 percent and Zijin Mining rose 0.32 percent, while China Chengxin became the seventh largest shareholder of China Gold with 37.10 million shares or 0.77 percent
- 27Federal Reserve, October 28, 2026: the Federal Open Market Committee statement, published as monetary20261028a, holding the federal funds target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, as recorded in the site's own central bank feed with the October 28 publication stamp
- 28Federal Reserve, October 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Board announcement approving the application by The Bank of Nova Scotia, as recorded in the site's own central bank feed
- 29European Central Bank, October 29, 2026: monetary policy decisions keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.50 percent, published as ecb.mp261029
- 30European Central Bank, October 29, 2026: the monetary policy statement and question-and-answer with Christine Lagarde and Boris Vujcic, published as ecb.is261029
- 31European Central Bank, October 29, 2026: the announcement that President Christine Lagarde will step down on February 7, 2027, published as ecb.pr261029
- 32European Central Bank, October 30, 2026: the results of the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026, published as ecb.pr261030
- 33Bank of England, October 29, 2026: minutes of the Court of Directors meeting held on September 17, 2026, and the same day's statement on the approach to tokenised collateral in central clearing
- 34Bank of Japan, October 30, 2026: the statement on monetary policy and the outlook report, together with the timetable of United States dollar funds-supplying operations for November 2026 to March 2027 and the quarterly schedule of outright Japanese government bond purchases
- 35US Treasury, October 29, 2026: the daily par yield curve and the daily par real yield curve, with the ten-year at 4.98 percent and 2.63 percent real, the thirty-year at 5.32 percent and the two-year at 4.61 percent
- 36US Treasury, October 28, 2026: the previous day's par curve and real curve, with the ten-year at 5.05 percent and 2.67 percent real, the thirty-year at 5.37 percent and the two-year at 4.67 percent
- 37Commodity Futures Trading Commission, October 23, 2026: the disaggregated report for positions dated October 20, managed money net long at 104,206 hands, down 2,883 on the week, with open interest at 402,279, managed money long at 120,970 and managed money short at 16,764
- 38World Gold Council, October 26, 2026: the weekly gold exchange-traded fund flow report for the week ended October 23, the basis of the flow correction named in this edition
- 39SPDR Gold Shares, October 30, 2026: daily holdings of 1,041.083 tonnes after a fall of 2.28 tonnes on the session, against 1,041.65 tonnes on October 23
- 40CME FedWatch tool via the site's own flash package, October 30, 2026: readings at 20:56 Beijing on October 29, 06:02 Beijing on October 30 and 08:57 Beijing on October 30, the December at-least-one-hike price at 81.3 percent, then 74.9 percent for a quarter point hike against 25.1 percent for no change, then about 70 percent
- 41US Bureau of Economic Analysis via the site's own flash package, October 29, 2026 at 08:30 ET: the third-quarter advance real gross domestic product and the September personal consumption expenditure price index releases
- 42US Department of Labor via the site's own flash package, October 29, 2026 at 08:30 ET: weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance at 194,000 for the week ended October 24
- 43World Gold Council, September 9: the September 2026 gold market commentary and the ETF flow and holdings dataset behind the record third-quarter 31 billion dollar inflow
- 44International Monetary Fund, October 29: a statement fully supporting Chair Warsh's focus on price stability and noting that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are acting in a highly uncertain environment
- 45World Bank, October 29, 2026: a forecast of a 23 percent rise in commodity prices in 2026 with global oil supply down 5.2 percent
- 46Eurostat, October 30, 2026: the flash estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product for the euro area and the European Union
- 47Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026: the decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50 percent
- 48Reserve Bank of New Zealand, October 28, 2026: the decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.75 percent, which the market had priced as a near-certain rise
- 49LSEG, October 29, 2026: market pricing of a 44 percent probability of a further Bank of Canada hike in December, as reported in the site's own flash package
- 50Site structured quote file, October 30, 2026 at 22:36 Beijing: spot gold 3,904.38 with a session range of 3,891.64 to 4,028.46, silver 49.092, platinum 1,428.49, palladium 981.74, oil 112.98, EUR/USD 1.11407, GBP/USD 1.33827 and USD/JPY 157.171, and the same file at 19:02 Beijing carried spot gold 3,979.31 with a session low of 3,965.18, silver 50.507, platinum 1,442.21, EUR/USD 1.12005, GBP/USD 1.34289 and USD/JPY 157.274
- 51Site structured quote file, October 30, 2026: a rolling reference close of 4,021.23 for spot gold at 22:36 Beijing, 4,021.22 at 18:53, 4,021.16 at 17:43 and 4,021.13 at 19:02, recomputed on each poll rather than a settlement
- 52Site five-minute gold series, October 30, 2026 from 00:19 to 22:36 Beijing: 253 prints with a high of 4,028.21 at 04:13, a low of 3,899.99 at 22:24, the first print below 4,000 at 3,999.81 at 09:09 Beijing with the last print above it at 4,003.13 at 13:43, and the first print of the New York session at 3,936.21 at 21:33 Beijing
- 53Site radar package, October 30, 2026 at 17:43 Beijing: gold 3,989.39 with a reference close of 4,021.157, a session high of 4,028.46 and a session low of 3,965.18, and 40 flash items and 15 calendar entries with no collection errors
- 54Site radar package, October 30, 2026 at 09:22 Beijing: gold 4,003.26 with a reference close of 4,021.356, and the October 29 Treasury yields of 4.98 percent nominal and 2.63 percent real
- 55Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 06:23 Beijing: the SPDR Gold Trust gave up 2.28 tonnes to 1,041.083 tonnes, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D opened the Friday session down 1.02 percent at 858.10 yuan a gram
- 56Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 06:02 and 08:57 Beijing: the CME FedWatch composite priced a 25 basis point December hike at 74.9 percent and 25.1 percent for no change at 06:02, and an at-least-one-hike price of about 70 percent at 08:57
- 57Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 20:56 Beijing: the CME FedWatch composite priced a 25 basis point December hike at 81.3 percent and 18.7 percent for no change immediately after the price index release
- 58Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 20:59 Beijing: the third-quarter growth print at 3.4 percent against a 3.2 percent expectation, the core price index at 0.3 percent on the month and 3.1 percent on the year, and the third-quarter real personal consumption expenditure at 3.8 percent
- 59Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 20:58 Beijing: weekly jobless claims at 194,000 against 198,000 expected, the sixth consecutive week under 200,000 and the longest run since January 2023
- 60Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 15:28 Beijing: the Federal Reserve held at 3.75 to 4.00 percent with Hammack and Cook preferring a 25 basis point increase, the statement describing the economy as strong and emphasising the need for more information, and Chair Warsh saying financial conditions have tightened without calling them tight
- 61Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 21:29 Beijing: the European Central Bank held its key rate at 2.50 percent on October 29, with French debt concerns overtaking inflation worries
- 62Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 16:27 Beijing: the Bank of Japan held at 1.25 percent on an 8 to 1 vote with Takata dissenting for 1.5 percent, accelerated exchange-traded fund sales to 860 billion yen a year, and lifted next year's core inflation forecast from 2.4 to 2.6 percent
- 63Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 15:31 Beijing: the United States third-quarter growth at 3.4 percent above expectations, and the White House National Economic Council director saying a high October inflation print could prompt Federal Reserve action
- 64Site calendar package, October 30, 2026: Japan's September unemployment at 2.4 percent against 2.5 expected, France's third-quarter growth at minus 0.1 percent against 0.3 expected, French October consumer prices at 0.4 percent against 0.2 expected, German unemployment at 6.4 percent on 0.4 million, German third-quarter growth at 1.3 percent against 1.2 expected, and the Canadian August growth and United States third-quarter employment cost index still unpublished at 20:30 Beijing
- 65Site global yields asset, October 30, 2026: the end-of-day par curve for October 29 with the two-year at 4.61, the ten-year at 4.98, the thirty-year at 5.32 and the ten-year real yield at 2.63 percent, against the October 28 set at 4.67, 5.05, 5.37 and 2.67
- 66Site global positioning asset, October 30, 2026: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission snapshot for the October 20 report date with managed money net long at 104,206 hands, down 2,883, and open interest at 402,279
- 67Jin10 Data, October 29 and 30, 2026: the flash timeline of the Federal Reserve decision, the growth and price index releases, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan decisions and the gold and dollar path, used as the site's own structured record of intraday timestamps
- 68Caixin Ledger, October 29, 2026: the ten-year Treasury yield falling 6 basis points to 4.984 percent on a market-close caliber
- 69China Securities Journal, October 29, 2026: the New York closing currency set with the dollar index at 102.037 and the Canadian dollar at 1.3986, republished from Xinhua
- 70Gold Price Network, October 29, 2026: the October 29 spot session range of 4,015.85 to 4,068.72 with a previous close of 4,067.16, and the COMEX December contract on a 4,031.05 or minus 0.51 percent caliber against a 4,051.60 previous close
- 71Summa Money and Datastreet, October 26, 2026: the World Gold Council weekly flow data with the quotes from Augmont's research chief on the worst week since June and from the India Bullion and Jewellers Association on staggered buying ahead of the October 28 decision
- 72Shenzhen Securities Times, October 30, 2026: the euro area and European Union third-quarter growth figures with the second-quarter comparators of 0.6 and 0.7 percent quarter on quarter
- 73Reuters, October 30: US third-quarter employment cost index rose 0.8 percent on the quarter, in line with expectations and down from 0.9 percent, with wages up 0.7 percent and benefits up 0.9 percent, and labor costs up 3.4 percent over the twelve months to September
- 74Reuters, October 30: gold slipped as higher oil prices and firm US inflation data bolstered Fed hike bets, with spot gold down 0.6 percent at 3,997.39 dollars an ounce at 0255 GMT and December futures at 4,007.80, with traders pricing about a 75 percent chance of a December hike
- 75Reuters, October 30: Canada GDP unchanged for a second straight month in August against a 0.2 percent expectation, with September indicated to fall 0.1 percent and third-quarter annualized industry growth at 1.3 percent, and the Canadian dollar up 0.26 percent at 1.3951 against the dollar
- 76Reuters, October 30: German inflation slowed more than expected in October to 2.8 percent year on year against a 3.1 percent forecast for the EU-harmonised measure and 3.3 percent in September, with core at 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent
- 77Reuters, October 30: the Bank of Japan held at 1.25 percent, the yen strengthened to 157.115 per dollar, and the dollar tracked Treasury yields lower as a fresh wave of AI share selling triggered a flight to safety
- 78Reuters, October 30: spot silver slid 2.1 percent to 51.27 dollars an ounce, platinum fell 1.9 percent to 1,458.85 and palladium lost 2 percent to 986.08, with all three heading for weekly and monthly losses
- 79Reuters, October 30: Brent was on course for a fourth monthly gain and the steepest since July on supply concerns after Houthi forces stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, with the Strait of Hormuz tanker attack highlighted
- 80MNI and the Chicago Institute for Supply Management, October 30: the Chicago manufacturing index dipped to 55.3 in October against a 56.0 consensus and 58.8 in September
- 81Reuters via Seeking Alpha, October 30: Intel shares sank more than 30 percent in morning trade after a third-quarter result and guidance that missed estimates, Amazon fell 2.4 percent, the S&P 500 was down 1.2 percent, the Nasdaq down 2.1 percent and the Dow down 0.4 percent, with the ten-year yield up a basis point to 4.95 percent, the two-year up 5 basis points to 4.63 percent and the thirty-year up a basis point to 5.31 percent
- 82Dow Jones Newswires via Morningstar, October 30: Canadian GDP was essentially unchanged at 2.372 trillion Canadian dollars in August against a 0.2 percent expected rise, up 1.5 percent on the year
- 83Xinhua Finance, October 30: the third-quarter US labor cost index was published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a 0.8 percent rise, below the 0.9 percent of the April to June period and in line with expectations
- 84Xinhua Finance, October 30: spot gold fell below 4,000 dollars an ounce in the Asian session and stood at 3,988.69 dollars at 14:35 Beijing, while the December COMEX contract was at 3,997.40 dollars, down 0.84 percent
- 85Xinhua Finance, October 30: the dollar index fell 0.17 percent to close the October 29 New York session at 102.037, with the euro at 1.1162, sterling at 1.3361, the yen at 157.96, the Swiss franc at 0.8264 and the Canadian dollar at 1.3986
- 86Xinhua Finance, October 30: the World Gold Council data published on October 26 showed global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds with 3.01 billion dollars of redemptions against 1.80 billion of subscriptions for the week to October 23, a 1.21 billion dollar net outflow that ended thirteen consecutive weeks of inflow, with the United States at 1.7 billion out and the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany and China in at 321.8 million, 64.3 million, 45.8 million and 21.4 million
- 87Xinhua Finance, October 30: the SPDR Gold Trust gave up 2.28 tonnes to 1,041.083 tonnes as of October 29, against 1,041.65 tonnes a week earlier
- 88Xinhua Finance, October 30: German third-quarter GDP grew 1.3 percent year on year and 0.2 percent quarter on quarter, while the euro area third-quarter GDP printed at 1.3 percent year on year against 1.1 percent expected
- 89Xinhua Finance, October 30: the Swiss National Bank reported a profit of 44.2 billion Swiss francs for the first nine months, of which 12 billion francs came from the valuation gain on its gold holdings
- 90Yicai Global via the China Economic Net, October 30: gold broke below 4,000 dollars an ounce in the Asian session, with the December COMEX contract at 3,997.40 dollars and the London spot price at 3,988.69 dollars at 14:35 Beijing
- 91Caijing Newswire via STCN, October 30: the Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for next year to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent and its growth outlook for this year to 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent, and accelerated exchange-traded fund sales to 860 billion yen a year
- 92China Securities Journal via STCN, October 30: three tankers hit mines and caught fire in the southern Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy, and Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil and civil aviation facilities
- 93CFi.cn, October 30: Brent December futures rose 1.04 percent to 116.08 dollars a barrel with the January contract at 112.19, and WTI rose 1.34 percent to 103.37, with Brent up close to 11 percent and WTI up 14 percent for the month
- 94Sina Finance Global Market, October 30: Brent traded up to 116.12 dollars and touched 117.84 intraday, the highest since late April, with WTI at 103.01, and the Central Command commander Brad Cooper briefed the president on military options against Iran
- 95Bank of China Financial News, October 30: Chinese domestic gold jewelry prices were mostly quoted at 1,199 to 1,205 yuan a gram, slightly lower than the previous day
- 96Shanghai Gold Exchange, October 30: the October 30 session was summarised as the gold T+D contract closing down 1.48 percent at 854.08 yuan a gram and the silver T+D contract down 6.3 percent at 12,038.0 yuan a kilogram
- 97Metals Focus, October 30: the gold to silver ratio rose above 76 for the first time since December 2025 against a 60 to 70 range through the summer, with London silver stocks at 932 million ounces and freely available stocks at about 267 million ounces, and CME pricing an 80 percent chance of a December Fed hike
- 98China Securities Times via the China Economic Net, October 30: the Bank of England survey of businesses found one-year ahead consumer price inflation expectations rising to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in the September round
- 99Chicago Business Review via the Chinese Economic Net, October 30: the Swiss National Bank reported a 44.2 billion franc nine-month profit with a 12 billion franc valuation gain on gold holdings
- 100Cailian Press, October 30: CME FedWatch pricing at 06:02 Beijing showed a 25.1 percent probability of no change and 74.9 percent of a 25 basis point hike at the December 9 meeting, with a 17.1 percent probability of no change by January and 58.9 percent of a cumulative 25 basis point and 24.1 percent of a cumulative 50 basis point
- 101Cailian Press, October 30: German EU-harmonised consumer prices rose 2.8 percent year on year against a 3.1 percent estimate, published at 21:00 Beijing
- 102Reuters via the site's own flash at 22:16 Beijing on October 30: the dollar index closed the October 29 New York session at 102.037, down 0.17 percent, while a Chinese closing board carried the index at 101.8300 for October 30, down 0.28 percent
- 103Federal Reserve, October 28: the Federal Open Market Committee held the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on a 10 to 2 vote, with Governor Cook and President Hammack voting for a 25 basis point increase, and the statement describing economic activity as continuing to expand at a solid pace
- 104US Department of the Treasury, October 29: the end-of-day par yield curve put the two-year at 4.61 percent, the ten-year at 4.98 percent and the thirty-year at 5.32 percent, against 4.67, 5.05 and 5.37 on October 28, and the end-of-day real curve put the ten-year at 2.63 percent against 2.67
- 105CME Group, October 30: the FedWatch December 9 meeting pricing carried a 25 basis point hike at about 70 percent and no change at about 25 percent in the site's own composite at 08:57 Beijing, and the October 27 Commodity Futures Trading Commission report publishes at 15:30 ET on Friday October 30
- 106Investing.com economic calendar, October 30: the United States third-quarter employment cost index published at 08:30 ET against a 0.80 percent consensus and 0.90 percent previous, and the Chicago manufacturing survey published at 09:45 ET against a 54.80 percent consensus and 58.80 percent previous, with Fed President Daly at 12:00 ET, the Baker Hughes rig count at 13:00 ET, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission gold speculative net position at 15:30 ET and Dallas Fed personal consumption expenditure for September at 18:30 ET
- 107SITE - jin10 radar pm pack, October 30: the site's own structured quote file and the October 30 am and pm radar packages, giving spot gold at 3,904.38 dollars an ounce at 22:36 Beijing with a session range of 3,891.64 to 4,028.46, spot silver at 49.092, platinum at 1,428.49, palladium at 981.74, oil at 112.98, EUR/USD at 1.11407, GBP/USD at 1.33827 and USD/JPY at 157.171
- 108SITE - jin10 calendar, October 30: the October 30 economic calendar with the French third-quarter GDP at minus 0.1 percent against 0.3 expected, German third-quarter GDP at 1.3 percent against 1.2 expected, euro area third-quarter GDP at 1.3 percent against 1.1 expected, euro area September unemployment at 6.5 percent against 6.4 expected, French October consumer prices at 0.4 percent against 0.2 expected, Swiss October KOF at 107.6 against 108.3 expected, German October unemployment at 6.4 percent, and the Japanese October target rate held at 1.25 percent
- 109Reuters via Howard Schneider, October 30, 2026: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Sirius XM's Business Briefing that the direction of travel is pretty straightforward but the question is pace, that a gradual approach makes sense when the Fed is not much behind the curve, and that businesses face rising cost pressures they are increasingly willing to pass on
- 110Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: Barkin said the Fed had already signalled a gradual approach at its September meeting and that artificial-intelligence capital spending is acting as a source of demand-side inflation that monetary policy can suppress
- 111Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: at the New York close the ten-year Treasury yield traded at 4.9290 percent, down 5.90 basis points from the prior session's 15:00 reference, the two-year at 4.5810 percent, down 7.50 basis points and its lowest since the eleventh of last month, and the thirty-year at 5.3090 percent, down 1.90 basis points, with the ten-year to two-year spread widening from 33.20 to 34.80 basis points
- 112Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: the CME FedWatch tool priced a 72.4 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike by December and a 27.6 percent probability of no change, and the VIX rose 2.22 points to 19.42
- 113Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at an event at Davidson College that the Federal Open Market Committee should implement at least two 25 basis point rate hikes and that the federal funds rate target range is at least 50 basis points below the level where it could impose some moderate restraint
- 114Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told the Shadow Open Market Committee that additional tightening of monetary policy will be needed soon, that inflation is high and broad-based, and that monetary and financial conditions remain accommodative
- 115Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: technology stocks fell 4.24 percent in the S&P 500 sector, SanDisk fell 13.47 percent, Reddit fell 29.27 percent and Coinbase fell 10.62 percent, while energy stocks rose more than 1 percent
- 116United States Department of the Treasury, October 30, 2026: the daily par yield curve rates for October 30 close with the two-year at 4.56 percent, the ten-year at 4.94 percent and the thirty-year at 5.31 percent, against 4.61, 4.98 and 5.32 percent on October 29
- 117United States Department of the Treasury, October 30, 2026: the daily real yield curve rates for October 30 close with the ten-year real yield at 2.60 percent against 2.63 percent on October 29, and the ten-year breakeven implied by the two curves narrows from 2.35 to 2.34 percent
- 118Commodity Futures Trading Commission, October 30, 2026: the Commitments of Traders report dated October 27 shows managed money in COMEX gold at 122,508 long contracts against 16,946 short contracts for a net long of 105,562 contracts, up 1,356 on the week, on open interest of 396,810
- 119Commodity Futures Trading Commission, October 30, 2026: the same October 27 report on the legacy futures-only basis shows a net long of 107,404 contracts, down 1,283 on the week, and on the legacy combined basis a net long of 186,451 contracts, down 13,414
- 120The SPDR Gold Trust daily holdings record, October 30, 2026: holdings of 1,041.653 tonnes on October 30, an increase of 0.57 tonnes, against 1,041.083 tonnes and a reduction of 2.28 tonnes on October 29 and 1,043.36 tonnes on October 28
- 121Yahoo Finance, October 30, 2026: the SPDR Gold Shares closed at 355.78 dollars, down 3.47 percent, on a 52-week low of 354.67, a previous close of 368.57, volume of 16.2 million shares against an average of 9.6 million, and net assets of 141.7 billion dollars
- 122Nasdaq closing levels, October 30, 2026: the S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07, down 1.82 percent on a 140.32 point fall, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,437.00, down 2.86 percent on a 747.73 point fall
- 123Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, October 30, 2026: President Mary Daly said artificial intelligence genuinely influences how the Federal Reserve thinks about near- and medium-term policy and bears on both price stability and maximum employment, and named no path for the December meeting
- 124Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 30, 2026: President Alberto Musalem said monetary policy is not positioned to lower inflation, that the third-quarter data confirmed the economy's underlying strength, and that further tightening will be needed soon
- 125Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, October 30, 2026: President Lorie Logan said the Federal Open Market Committee should implement at least two 25 basis point rate hikes and that a pause after 50 basis points would be reasonable to determine what further action is appropriate
- 126CME Group FedWatch tool, October 30, 2026: pricing for the December 9 meeting showed a 72.4 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike and a 27.6 percent probability of no change, and for January a 58.4 percent probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase, a 22.3 percent probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase and a 19.3 percent probability of no change
- 127COMEX via the CME Group settlement record, October 30, 2026: the December 2026 gold contract settled at 3,884.90 dollars per ounce, down 3.63 percent on the session and 3.07 percent on the week, and the December silver contract at 49.13 dollars, down 6.20 percent on the session and 8.92 percent on the week
- 128European Central Bank, October 30, 2026: the Governing Council held a meeting with no rate decision, the fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters was published expecting inflation to rise, and Executive Board member Kocher said the Bank must hike rates if the economic situation does not improve soon
- 129Bank of Japan, October 30, 2026: the central bank amended its exchange-traded fund disposal reference and Governor Ueda said core inflation has met the target
- 130Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange night session close, October 31, 2026: gold T+D settled at 831.10 yuan a gram, down 3.11 percent, gold Au99.99 at 833.00 yuan, down 2.55 percent, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold main contract at 831.68 yuan, down 3.51 percent
- 131Shanghai Futures Exchange, October 30, 2026: the gold main contract closed the day session at 855.18 yuan a gram, down 1.06 percent on the week
- 132Newswuawk, October 30, 2026: the day's Federal Reserve slate was Cook and Hammack at about 08:00 ET to explain their dissents, Barkin at 09:30 ET, Daly at 12:00 ET and Musalem at 12:30 ET, with Logan scheduled later in the afternoon
- 133BMO Capital Markets Precious Metals Monitor, October 30, 2026: global gold exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of 1.1 billion dollars in the week ended October 23 led by a 1.7 billion dollar withdrawal in the United States against 485 million dollars of European inflows, the Indian premium over international spot rose to 15 dollars an ounce, and speculators' net long positions in United States gold futures slipped to the lowest since August
- 134BMO Capital Markets Precious Metals Monitor, October 30, 2026: the People's Bank of China was a net buyer in September for the twenty-third consecutive month, lifting official reserves from 76.73 million ounces to 77.47 million ounces, while the Russian central bank sold six tonnes, a tenth consecutive month of sales and its lowest reserve since 2019, and Kazakhstan plans to cut gold's share of its foreign exchange reserves from 78 percent to 75 percent, about 14 tonnes
- 135Baker Hughes rig count, October 30, 2026: the North American rotary rig count stood at 462 oil rigs and 603 rigs in total, published at 01:00 Beijing on October 31
- 136新华社纽约10月30日电, 2026年10月31日: 美元指数当天下跌0.16%, 在汇市尾市收于101.878, 欧元1.1167、英镑1.3394、日元157.37、瑞郎0.8236、加元1.3956、瑞典克朗9.8170
- 137新华社 via 中国金融信息网, 2026年10月31日: 截至纽约汇市尾市, 1欧元兑换1.1167美元高于前一日的1.1162美元, 1英镑兑换1.3394美元高于前一日的1.3361美元, 1美元兑换157.37日元低于前一日的157.96日元
- 138证券时报网人民财讯, 2026年10月31日: 美元指数30日下跌0.16%, 汇市尾市收于101.878
- 139国际金融要情, 2026年10月31日: 现货黄金3875.55美元/盎司跌3.63%, COMEX黄金期货3884.90美元/盎司跌3.63%, 上金所黄金9999报833.00元/克跌2.55%, 黄金T+D报831.10元/克跌3.11%, 上期所沪金主连报831.68元/克跌3.51%, WTI原油104.10美元/桶涨2.08%, 布伦特原油113.40美元/桶涨2.37%
- 140国际金融要情, 2026年10月31日: 美元指数101.9500跌0.17%, 美国10年期国债收益率4.921%、30年期5.309%、20年期5.338%、5年期4.722%、1年期4.387%, 德国DAX30指数25818.21跌0.85%, 英国富时100指数10729.78涨0.07%, 法国CAC40指数7969.42跌0.01%, 日经225指数63290.11跌2.12%, 韩国KOSPI指数5730.74跌3.48%, 恒生指数23294.42涨1.46%
- 141中新经纬, 2026年10月31日: 美东时间周五美股三大股指全线收跌, 道指跌1.09%报51770.31点, 标普500跌1.82%报7580.07点, 纳指跌2.86%报25437点, 费城半导体指数跌7.2%, 英特尔跌逾28%, 闪迪跌超13%, 能源股多数上涨, 国际油价上涨, 纽约商品交易所12月交货轻质原油涨2.12美元收于104.12美元, 12月交货布伦特原油涨2.76美元收于117.64美元, COMEX黄金跌3.63%报3884.90美元/盎司本周累跌3.07%, COMEX白银跌6.20%报49.13美元/盎司本周累跌8.92%
- 142央视新闻客户端 via 央广网, 2026年10月31日: 纽约股市三大股指10月30日显著下跌, 道指下跌572.25点收于51770.31点跌幅1.09%, 标普500下跌140.32点收于7580.07点跌幅1.82%, 纳斯达克下跌747.73点收于25437.00点跌幅2.86%, 能源板块和必需消费品板块分别以1.91%和1.38%的涨幅领涨, 科技板块和工业板块分别以4.24%和1.57%的跌幅领跌
- 143央视新闻, 2026年10月31日: 当地时间10月30日晚, 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军宣布当天下午第四艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡违规航行时发生触雷爆炸并起火, 该油轮载有超过200万桶原油并无视卫队无线电警告试图驶离海峡南部未经授权航道, 这是自当天凌晨以来于霍尔木兹海峡起火的第四艘油轮
- 144央视新闻, 2026年10月31日: 当地时间10月30日, 英国海上贸易行动办公室通报伊朗拉万岛以南约40海里处一船舶遭不明抛射物击中起火, 船员确认安全, 暂无环境污染报告
- 145东方财富外汇频道, 2026年10月31日: 据CME最新一期美联储观察, 美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为28%, 加息25个基点的概率为72%, 到明年1月维持不变概率19.3%、累计加息25个基点58.4%、累计加息50个基点22.3%; 达拉斯联储洛根表示美联储至少还需加息两次每次25个基点, 圣路易斯联储穆萨莱姆表示有必要进一步收紧政策而且要尽快行动
- 146东方财富, 2026年10月31日: 昨夜今晨国际金价银价暴跌, 纽约金价下跌3.63%跌破3900美元/盎司, 纽约银价下跌6.20%跌破50美元/盎司为2025年11月以来首次, 个股方面Reddit跌29.28%、英特尔跌28.94%、Illumina跌18.64%、闪迪跌13.47%
- 147新浪财经全球最大黄金ETF基金SPDR持仓数据, 2026年10月31日: 2026年10月30日当前持仓1041.65吨持仓量增加0.57吨为利多, 10月29日1041.08吨减少2.28吨为利空, 10月28日1043.36吨增加1.71吨, 10月27日1041.65吨增加0.85吨
- 148同花顺财经上海中期期货一周策略, 2026年10月30日: 本周沪金主力合约收盘价855.18元/克跌幅1.06%, 沪银主力合约收盘价12093元/千克跌幅7.74%, 避险资金流向美债令贵金属承压
- 149期货日报, 2026年10月31日: 现货白银跌破50美元/盎司为2025年11月以来首次, 伦金下跌3.63%报3875.55美元/盎司
- 150Kitco price page, October 30, 2026: the New York spot close for gold at 17:00 ET with a bid of 3,874.40 and an ask of 3,876.40, a change of 146.10 dollars or 3.63 percent, a session low of 3,869.30 and a high of 4,027.30, a 30-day change of 281.70 dollars or 6.78 percent and a one-year change of 149.20 dollars or 3.71 percent, with silver at 49.00, platinum at 1,429.00 and palladium at 961.00
- 151Kitco News, October 30, 2026: spot gold fell to its lowest level since October 6, 2025, when the metal touched an intraday low of 3,884.61 dollars, and the analyst at GivTrade said the path of least resistance remains lower and that support would be tested at 3,800, with the metal roughly 13.5 percent below a 200-day moving average near 4,490 dollars
- 152Kitco News, October 30, 2026: the Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street bulls abandoning ship after gold sank below 3,900 dollars while Main Street maintained a narrow bullish majority bias, with the midterm elections and the employment report in view
- 153Kitco News, October 31, 2026: a commentary titled the frustrating paradox argued that falling yields and a weaker dollar cannot stop the selloff, which is the same reading this report reached from the site's own data on Friday
- 154Kitco News citing the analyst at StoneX Group, October 30, 2026: a longer and deeper correction lasting into 2027 before the tide turns, with the possibility of silver in the high thirties and gold as low as 3,000 dollars, which is a published scenario from a named house and not this report's view
- 155Kitco News citing Blue Line Futures and XS.com, October 30, 2026: the rule in the markets is that you are supposed to buy the inflation and oil right now is the inflation, and the decisive factor will be whether incoming data shift the rate path toward a pause or a resumption of cuts
- 156The National and ChinaTech News citing Reuters, October 31, 2026: about 6.3 billion dollars was stolen from Binance in the largest theft in the history of cryptocurrency, the exchange covered 90 percent of it from company funds, about three billion of assets were frozen on chain, withdrawals were due to resume on November 1 and bitcoin fell to a six-week low near 76,450 dollars
- 157Macro Herald citing CoinGecko, Chainalysis and TRM Labs, October 31, 2026: the theft began at 16:05 ET on Thursday October 29 after the United States market closed, leveraged bets worth about 1.3 billion dollars were liquidated, bitcoin was at 77,414 dollars at 01:02 GMT on October 31 near a 31-day low, and the funds were traced to a North Korean group
- 158Poyang Ledger via Toutiao, October 31, 2026: the coin theft detail, that attackers bypassed approval controls and used the EIP-7702 delegation standard to take execution rights on a hot wallet, with about three billion dollars of assets frozen on chain and no evidence of a private key compromise so far
- 159International Finance News, October 31, 2026: the Chinese official October purchasing managers' indices, with manufacturing at 49.3 percent against 50.1 percent before, the non-manufacturing index at 49.7 percent and the composite at 49.7 percent, the production index at 49.8 percent and new orders at 49.4 percent
- 160National Bureau of Statistics of China, October 31, 2026: the interpretation of the October 2026 China purchasing managers' index by the chief statistician, with high-technology manufacturing at 51.3 percent and equipment manufacturing at 50.6 percent, large enterprises at 50.2 percent against 48.4 percent for medium and 47.5 percent for small, the services business activity index at 50.0 percent and construction at 48.0 percent
- 161China Economic Net citing the Wind terminal, October 31, 2026: twenty listed gold exchange-traded funds took in 523 million yuan in the week to October 23 and gave up 1.371 billion yuan in the week to October 30, with their combined size down to 283.96 billion yuan from 297.91 billion yuan at the start of October
- 162证券时报网 and 央视新闻, November 1, 2026: the Iranian navy announced on October 31 that a tanker ignoring warnings struck a mine and caught fire in the eastern prohibited zone of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Revolutionary Guard said the United States president's remarks were untrue and that its control policy over the strait would not change
- 163齐鲁晚报 citing 央视总台, November 1, 2026: the Revolutionary Guard Navy said that fifteen vessels, four of them tankers, passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous twenty-four hours under its coordination and security escort
- 164航运界 citing United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, October 31, 2026: notices 188 and 189, one for a vessel struck by an unidentified projectile about forty nautical miles south of Lavan Island and caught fire and one for a tanker struck while leaving the strait as a delayed report, both with the crew safe and no pollution reported
- 165霍尔木兹海峡能源快报 citing 新华社, October 31, 2026: the last settlement was Friday October 30, with December WTI up 2.12 dollars at 104.12 and December Brent up 2.76 dollars at 117.64 with that contract expiring on the day, the still-traded January contract at 113.43, the Brent-WTI spread at 13.52 dollars, October Brent up 13.6 percent and WTI up 15.2 percent, and the explicit note that the weekend events have not entered any price
- 166航运界 and 参考消息 citing 波罗的海交易所, Clarksons Research, 达信 and 国际海事组织, October 31, 2026: the Middle East to China very large crude carrier time charter at 1,351,405 dollars a day against under 50,000 dollars a year ago, the Oman to China route up 19 percent on the week, about 15 percent of the world fleet of 925 ships idled near Oman, per-barrel freight near 30 dollars or 20 to 40 percent of the oil price, war risk cover at 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value and at least 34 confirmed vessel attacks in the strait since September 29
- 167小虎哥 via 今日头条, November 1, 2026: the seven major producers decided to hold the November output target at the September level for a second consecutive month, the November 1 meeting focuses on December production policy, and the ANZ year-end Brent target was raised from 95 to 105 dollars
- 168网易财经, November 1, 2026: Iran cut the Strait of Hormuz reopening plan from seven days to two and sent a delegation to Doha through the Qatari mediator, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council said the tone of the American letter had completely changed and called that a good sign, and the military leadership said a response would be immediate and not limited by geography
- 169财联社 via 霍尔木兹海峡能源快报, October 31, 2026: the United States has notified Gulf governments to prepare for military action against Iran as early as November 4, the day after the midterm election, according to market sources, with no scale or targets given and no official confirmation
- 170财联社 via 汇通网, October 31, 2026: the secretary of state said the president had not decided on military action against Iran and the president said the war would end soon
- 171VT Markets, November 1, 2026: the United States midterm election on November 3 contests all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, and the direction of gold will depend on the yield and dollar response rather than on the result itself, with the historical reference that the S&P 500 has averaged 6.5 percent over the three months after a midterm against 2.5 percent over the three months before
- 172Hong Kong Economic Times, November 1, 2026: prediction market pricing of a Democratic House at 85 percent with the Senate around 50 to 50, and the historical observation that equities tend to perform better after midterms while gold holds a supported range
- 173中国工商银行贵金属业务部, 2026 United States midterm election special report, October 2026: the base scenario of a Democratic House with a Republican Senate limits new fiscal expansion, which should ease the pressure of excess Treasury supply and push real yields and the dollar off their highs, and the transmission to gold runs through growth, inflation, real rates, the dollar and hedging demand
- 174360doc 个人图书馆, October 2026: the poll of professional forecasters had the House rating at 220 Democratic seats against 200 Republican with 15 undecided and the Senate at 48 Democratic, 47 Republican and 5 undecided, and prediction market pricing at the end of September had a Democratic House at 91.5 percent and a Democratic Senate at 63.0 percent
- 175新浪财经, October 31, 2026: the SPDR Gold Trust daily holdings record, with holdings of 1,041.65 tonnes on October 30 for a 0.57 tonne increase, 1,041.08 tonnes on October 29 for a 2.28 tonne fall and 1,043.36 tonnes on October 28 for a 1.71 tonne increase
- 176Jin10 Data, November 1, 2026: the CME oil market paused its around-the-clock crude contract on concern about weekend liquidity, and the site's own news package carried the October 31 and November 1 items including the record Binance theft, the fifth tanker in the strait and the Chinese official October purchasing managers' index
- 177中国人民银行 via 中国金融信息网 and 证券时报, October 30, 2026: the party committee meeting chaired by the governor reaffirmed a moderately loose monetary policy with ample liquidity, a multi-layered modern financial market and the prevention of financial risk
- 178CCTV via 央广网, October 31, 2026: the New York closing prices for the major dollar pairs on October 30, with the dollar index down 0.16 percent at 101.878 and the euro, sterling, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona all firmed against it except the yen