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2026-10-12호 #291

Spot Gold XAU/USD4186.00▼ -0.21%

The weekend's biggest risk headlines produced the smallest gold response.

A tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz with 22 crew rescued, the US hit a merchant vessel in the Gulf of Oman, and flows through the strait fell to about 8.5mn bpd, some 40% below normal. Spot opened 4195.24 and was trading near 4186 by the Asian afternoon — below Friday's 4194.65 settle. That is not a small reaction to a large event. It is the eighth consecutive time this cycle that a geopolitical premium has been offered to gold and not taken.

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2026-10-11호 #290

Spot Gold XAU/USD4193.84▲ +1.47%

The same variable that carried Friday has now deteriorated twice more.

Friday close (+1.47%) was credited to Trump ruling out a pre-midterm strike. Within 24 hours he said he may strike, and then over the weekend the IRGC declared a supertanker exploded after hitting mines in Hormuz while the UKMTO reported a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile as it exited the strait — while the UAE coast guard pulled 22 Asian crew from a separate burning vessel. Three separate maritime incidents in roughly 36 hours. The two reports have not been matched to a common hull, and neither is independently confirmed — but the direction of travel is one-way, and it is the one variable the close was explicitly resting on.

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2026-10-10호 #288

Spot Gold XAU/USD4193.84▲ +1.47%

The bond story flipped - and gold did not.

The morning brief led with yields easing and gold following. Friday closed the opposite way. The 10Y actually rose 1.7bp to 5.24% and the 2Y rose 3.8bp to 4.79%, yet spot gold settled 4193.84, +1.47% near the top of the day. The yield-gold correlation that explained Thursday broke on Friday.

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