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Editorial Comment

After the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI data, the market's implied probability of a 50 bp Fed rate hike in December rose to 14.7%, directly reflecting the marginal adjustment in short-term monetary policy expectations. This pricing provides an immediate reference for observing changes in market expectations for Fed monetary policy, and traders can monitor the impact of subsequent revisions to policy expectations on the pricing logic of the gold and forex markets.

Editorial Comment

The US October CPI rose 0.4% m/m; the pace eased from the previous reading but remained above market expectations. As data collection was incomplete due to the federal government shutdown, this release did not include the year-on-year increase, so the reference weight of the single month's month-on-month performance has correspondingly increased. The market's implied probability of a 25 bp Fed rate hike in December is now 84.2%. Traders can use this to judge the short-term monetary policy direction and monitor how changes in expectations affect the gold and forex markets.

Editorial Comment

Fed Governor Waller plans to support at least a 25bp rate hike in December, indicating that he still favors maintaining a tight stance, and markets must continue pricing around the interest-rate path. The forex market is focused on changes in dollar interest-rate expectations, while the gold market still regards real interest rates and expected holding costs as key variables. Going forward, attention should be paid to remarks from other Fed officials and economic data to confirm the consensus on the pace of rate hikes.

Editorial Comment

U.S. October CPI came in at 0.4% month-over-month, above market expectations of 0.3%, indicating stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure and directly triggering an across-the-board rise in Treasury yields. For gold and foreign exchange markets, this means inflation data is being transmitted through interest rate expectations and bond yields, affecting gold holding costs and U.S. dollar pricing. It is worth watching whether the yield adjustment will persist and how market pricing of the future interest rate path changes.

Editorial Comment

The US October CPI and core CPI came in on the stronger side, showing that inflationary pressures remain sticky and pushing expectations for a December rate hike toward full pricing. Waller’s comments on a 50 bp hike have made the size of the next single tightening move the focus of the policy debate. For gold and forex markets, the Fed’s rate path remains the core variable; future remarks by officials and inflation data guiding policy expectations should be monitored.

Editorial Comment

Both headline and core U.S. October CPI posted larger-than-expected month-over-month gains, further highlighting inflation stickiness and increasing the difficulty of the Federal Reserve’s policy tradeoff in fighting inflation. Changes in related monetary-policy expectations will affect pricing logic in gold and foreign-exchange markets, making this a key clue for traders to track. No year-over-year reading was released because the October 2025 government shutdown caused insufficient data collection and a lack of a comparable base; traders should watch for disturbances to market expectations from this data-information gap.

Editorial Comment

This Reuters survey presents policy expectations for another Fed rate hike in December against the backdrop of persistently elevated inflation risks, clarifying the supporting logic of inflation risks for rate-hike expectations. This conclusion is a survey-based expectation rather than established policy. Gold and forex traders can monitor its impact on the pricing logic of related assets and track market disturbances caused by changes in expectations.

Editorial Comment

The Fed official signaled more aggressive rate hikes, directly triggering a sharp short-term decline in silver and showing that precious metals are highly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations. Traders should monitor subsequent remarks from Fed officials and revisions to interest rate expectations, which may continue to dominate short-term precious metals volatility.

Editorial Comment

Waller's remarks show that the Fed remains alert to sticky inflation. The risk of larger rate hikes could prompt markets to reprice the interest-rate path, thereby affecting the valuation environment for the U.S. dollar and gold. Traders can monitor subsequent speeches by Fed officials and inflation data for how they revise rate-hike expectations, as well as changes in market volatility during the expectation-adjustment process.

Editorial Comment

U.S. CPI data lifted expectations for larger Fed rate hikes, directly driving this round of weakness in gold prices. This move clearly shows the linkage between inflation data, monetary policy expectations, and precious-metal trends. Traders can monitor how subsequent changes in rate-hike expectations affect pricing in the gold market.

Editorial Comment

The U.S. October CPI month-over-month increase was 0.4%, above the market expectation of 0.3%. This hotter-than-expected inflation print is a key breaking macro signal that the gold and forex markets need to track closely. The data surprise will provide a pricing reference for short-term trading in gold and forex-related instruments, and traders can use it to assess the degree of inflation surprise and judge the current macro trading environment. No further details on the data have been released yet; watch the market's subsequent digestion and pricing of this information.

Editorial Comment

Fed official Waller signaled that further monetary policy tightening is needed. The remarks will affect market expectations for the Fed's subsequent policy path, while monetary policy expectations are a core variable driving U.S. dollar exchange-rate pricing and acting on gold's interest-rate-sensitive characteristics. Traders can monitor the disturbance to pricing logic in the forex and gold markets and prudently assess volatility risks arising from shifts in expectations.

Editorial Comment

Waller’s remarks indicate that a 50 bp rate hike in December has been brought into his policy discussion, with the hot jobs data serving as a key backdrop driving that consideration. Gold and forex market participants can use this to track shifts in expectations for the Fed’s rate-hike path and watch for signals from subsequent Fed officials’ remarks and employment data.

Editorial Comment

This report directly links gold's short-term weakness to Fed rate-hike expectations ahead of the US CPI release, providing a clear macro-attribution perspective for understanding the current pressure on gold prices. For gold and forex traders, the driver logic behind current market movements can be understood through the dimension of monetary policy expectations, rather than being limited solely to individual price action.

Editorial Comment

Markets broadly expect US October CPI month-over-month growth to slow from September, indicating a marginal easing in inflationary pressure, but this preview alone is not yet enough to reshape pricing for the Fed's December policy decision. Traders should focus on whether the actual headline and core CPI deviate from consensus and whether the data strengthens or undermines the current rate-hike path, rather than interpreting a policy shift solely from cooling inflation.

Editorial Comment

Gold is currently trading back below $4,150, and the influence of rising Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations on gold prices has outweighed expectations related to the US-Iran agreement, becoming the core factor driving gold prices at present. Traders can focus on tracking marginal changes in both types of expectations to assess the evolution of the gold market’s driving logic.

Editorial Comment

Gold and oil moved in opposite directions on the same day, reflecting how a weaker dollar, temporarily cooling inflation concerns, and a retreat in geopolitical risk premium are jointly reshaping cross-asset pricing. Traders can monitor the interplay among the dollar, Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, and energy-price pass-through, rather than judging gold solely by its own supply and demand. This combination means the market is still repeatedly weighing rate-hike and inflation risks, and precious metals may continue to be driven by changes in the dollar and oil-price expectations.

Editorial Comment

This news clearly presents the macro driver behind this round of gold's pullback: the downward pressure from rising Fed rate-hike expectations has exceeded the impact weight of expectations related to a US-Iran deal. Traders can focus on tracking marginal changes in Fed rate-hike expectations and US-Iran deal-related expectations to assess whether the macro logic currently dominating gold pricing will shift.

Editorial Comment

After gold regains the $4,100 mark, the CPI data released on Tuesday will become the core short-term macro catalyst that determines whether the price can be maintained. Traders can focus on tracking the performance of gold prices near this mark after the data is released, so as to grasp the macro-driven logic of short-term gold prices.

Editorial Comment

The latest NAB business survey shows Australian business conditions at their lowest since August 2020 and business confidence well below its long-run average. The sharp decline in forward orders combined with rising quarterly purchase-cost growth highlights the policy dilemma posed by high interest rates restraining demand alongside persistent cost pressures. Traders can focus on the data's impact on RBA rate-hike expectations and how shifts in those expectations are priced into Australian dollar movements.

Editorial Comment

Fed official Barkin explicitly stated that the direction of rate hikes is clear, while noting that AI risks require greater caution in the pace of monetary policy normalization. This reflects policymakers' consideration of uncertainties in the policy-setting process. Gold and forex market participants can use this to understand the Fed's policy trade-offs, and subsequent official communications on related risks and the pace of policy warrant close attention.

Editorial Comment

Japanese household spending continues to be weak and wage increases have failed to be translated into consumption, highlighting that the recovery of domestic demand is still unstable. This makes the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates in December more dependent on policy signal confirmation. For the foreign exchange market, the differences and wording in the summary of opinions from the October meeting may affect the pricing of subsequent interest rate hikes, which in turn affects the performance of the yen; gold traders also need to pay attention to the indirect impact of yen fluctuations and expected changes in U.S. dollar interest rates on the pace of gold prices.

Editorial Comment

A summary of the opinions of the Bank of Japan's October monetary policy meeting shows that the participating members judged that potential inflation is generally in line with the 2% target. At the same time, there are internal differences in the pace of interest rate hikes and the neutral interest rate level. The overall tight stance provides official support for the market's existing expectations for a December interest rate hike. For the foreign exchange market, this document is an important reference for sorting out the normalization path of Japan's monetary policy and understanding the policy logic of the yen's trend. The policy trends of this major central bank are also global macro policy variables that the gold market needs to track, and traders can pay attention to the subsequent evolution of expectations.