#宏观数据

Editorial Comment

This Reuters survey presents policy expectations for another Fed rate hike in December against the backdrop of persistently elevated inflation risks, clarifying the supporting logic of inflation risks for rate-hike expectations. This conclusion is a survey-based expectation rather than established policy. Gold and forex traders can monitor its impact on the pricing logic of related assets and track market disturbances caused by changes in expectations.

Editorial Comment

Waller's remarks show that the Fed remains alert to sticky inflation. The risk of larger rate hikes could prompt markets to reprice the interest-rate path, thereby affecting the valuation environment for the U.S. dollar and gold. Traders can monitor subsequent speeches by Fed officials and inflation data for how they revise rate-hike expectations, as well as changes in market volatility during the expectation-adjustment process.

Editorial Comment

The U.S. October CPI month-over-month increase was 0.4%, above the market expectation of 0.3%. This hotter-than-expected inflation print is a key breaking macro signal that the gold and forex markets need to track closely. The data surprise will provide a pricing reference for short-term trading in gold and forex-related instruments, and traders can use it to assess the degree of inflation surprise and judge the current macro trading environment. No further details on the data have been released yet; watch the market's subsequent digestion and pricing of this information.

Editorial Comment

Markets broadly expect US October CPI month-over-month growth to slow from September, indicating a marginal easing in inflationary pressure, but this preview alone is not yet enough to reshape pricing for the Fed's December policy decision. Traders should focus on whether the actual headline and core CPI deviate from consensus and whether the data strengthens or undermines the current rate-hike path, rather than interpreting a policy shift solely from cooling inflation.

Editorial Comment

The latest NAB business survey shows Australian business conditions at their lowest since August 2020 and business confidence well below its long-run average. The sharp decline in forward orders combined with rising quarterly purchase-cost growth highlights the policy dilemma posed by high interest rates restraining demand alongside persistent cost pressures. Traders can focus on the data's impact on RBA rate-hike expectations and how shifts in those expectations are priced into Australian dollar movements.

Editorial Comment

Japanese household spending continues to be weak and wage increases have failed to be translated into consumption, highlighting that the recovery of domestic demand is still unstable. This makes the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates in December more dependent on policy signal confirmation. For the foreign exchange market, the differences and wording in the summary of opinions from the October meeting may affect the pricing of subsequent interest rate hikes, which in turn affects the performance of the yen; gold traders also need to pay attention to the indirect impact of yen fluctuations and expected changes in U.S. dollar interest rates on the pace of gold prices.

Editorial Comment

Kazuo Ueda's remarks that Japan's current inflation is around 3% and may rise further early next year, combined with nearly evenly split market expectations for the BOJ's December 18 policy decision, have increased near-term uncertainty in yen exchange-rate pricing. Beyond policy adjustment developments, the BOJ's assessment of spillovers from overseas central bank policies and progress in its internal communication discussions both warrant close attention from foreign exchange and gold market participants.

Editorial Comment

The average hourly wage growth in the United States in October was higher than market expectations, providing a reference for the gold and foreign exchange markets to judge U.S. wage inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Currently, the news only discloses overall growth data and does not provide more sub-item details. The information dimensions that can be used for analysis are relatively limited. When interpreting this data, traders need to pay attention to the limitations of the available information and avoid making over-judgments based on a single data.

Editorial Comment

The RBA raised rates to an 18-year high and explicitly cited AI-related investment and energy costs as structural factors pushing up inflation, implying its tightening cycle may last longer than the market expects, giving the Australian dollar relative support on rate differentials. Notably, both the RBA and the Fed have flagged pressure on prices from AI investment, a cross-market common thread worth tracking, as it could change major central banks' judgments on the neutral rate. Follow-up focus is on whether the timetable for inflation's return to target is pushed back further, and how policy divergence between Australia and the US affects carry trades.

Editorial Comment

A Reuters survey shows that 31 of 32 economists polled expect the RBA to raise rates by 25 bp to 4.85% at this meeting, with rate-hike expectations now highly aligned between markets and the economist community. Deutsche Bank's call to hold rates serves as a minority reference, meaning this decision could still deviate from mainstream expectations. Traders can focus on the event's short-term impact on the Australian dollar and gold markets, and watch for volatility risk caused by expectation gaps.

Editorial Comment

In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations and expanded for the 10th consecutive month. The production index hit the highest level since November 2021. However, business sentiment has weakened for the third consecutive month, and 66% of the respondents' comments were negative, showing that there are differences in the quality of growth. The price paid index fell back to 75.2, and price pressure has eased marginally. However, 62% of negative comments mentioned price fluctuations and 25% mentioned tariffs, indicating that the cost-side disturbance has not subsided. For traders, the focus is on how this combination of "strong aggregate volume and weak economic sentiment" affects the market's pricing of the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which in turn is transmitted to the U.S. dollar and gold.

Editorial Comment

U.S. manufacturing output hit a five-year high in October, and AI-related demand has become a driver of orders. This has provided fundamental support for the U.S. dollar. Traders need to pay attention to its potential suppression of the U.S. dollar index and gold safe-haven buying. At the same time, the materials suggest that high inflation has not alleviated the supply and demand pressure in the manufacturing industry, which means that cost-side pressure is still there. In the future, attention should be paid to how this structural contradiction affects the Fed's policy expectations and foreign exchange market pricing.

Editorial Comment

Manufacturing expansion momentum is easing at the margin, yet selling-price increases are running at their fastest since September 2022 and employment growth at its strongest since April 2021 — evidence that price pressure is not cooling alongside activity, which constrains the Fed's policy room. For gold, weaker growth alongside sticky inflation calls for watching whether upcoming data reinforces the stagflation narrative; for FX, dollar sensitivity to rate differentials and policy expectations may rise, with the persistence of the prices and employment sub-indices in focus.