美国CPI公布后，市场预期美联储12月加息
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2026年11月10日美国CPI数据公布后，市场对美联储12月加息的预期升温。Odaily星球日报当日报道称，CPI公布后美联储12月加息50个基点的概率升至15.3%；Seeking Alpha Market Currents随后报道该概率为14.7%。 11月11日界面新闻援引的CME“美联储观察”数据则显示，美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为0%，加息25个基点的概率为88.5%，加息50个基点的概率为11.5%。Odaily星球日报同日援引美联储传声筒消息称，12月加息几无悬念，市场关注点转向加息的幅度与节奏。 11月12日ForexLive报道，瑞银称尽管美国10月CPI环比上涨0.4%、核心CPI上涨0.3%均高于预期，美联储12月加息50个基点的支持仍有限，其基准情形仍是12月和3月各加息25个基点。瑞银还指出，联邦基金期货计入12月约28个基点的加息。
AI 根据报道生成 · 2 天前更新
事件进展
7 个进展
- 11月12日 07:49 · 1 篇报道瑞银称美联储12月加息50基点支持有限ForexLive：UBS: Support for a 50bp Fed hike in December remains limited despite hot October CPI
- 11月11日 20:51 · 1 篇报道美联储传声筒称12月加息几无悬念Odaily星球日报：Fed whisperer says December hike all but certain; focus shifts to size and pace
- 11月11日 15:06 · 1 篇报道美国通胀升温，市场押注美联储12月加息Google News Tài chính Việt Nam：美国通胀再度升温，市场押注美联储12月加息
- 11月11日 13:42 · 1 篇报道经济学家：市场夸大了美联储 12 月加息 50 个基点的风险Odaily星球日报：经济学家：市场夸大了美联储 12 月加息 50 个基点的风险
- 11月11日 08:14 · 1 篇报道CME数据显示美联储12月加息25基点概率88.5%界面新闻：CME FedWatch Shows 88.5% Probability of a 25 bp Fed Rate Hike in December
- 11月10日 21:59 · 2 篇报道CPI公布后美联储12月加息50基点概率升至15.3%Seeking Alpha Market Currents：After CPI Release, Probability of Fed 50 bp Hike in December Rises to 14.7%
- 11月10日 21:24 · 1 篇报道CPI公布前美联储12月加息概率为100%Odaily星球日报：CPI 公布前，美联储 12 月加息概率为 100%
报道时间线
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- ForexLive精选UBS: Support for a 50bp Fed hike in December remains limited despite hot October CPI
UBS believes that although US October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and core CPI rose 0.3%, both above expectations, support for a 50bp Fed rate hike in December remains limited, and its base case remains 25bp hikes each in December and March. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11bp to near 5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% on Tuesday, and fed funds futures priced in about 28bp of tightening in December. UBS also noted that three-month annualized core inflation rose to about 3.75%, and prices of tariff-sensitive goods such as toys, furniture and bedding, and household appliances all rose more than 1%.
- Odaily星球日报精选Fed whisperer says December hike all but certain; focus shifts to size and pace
Odaily reports, citing the Fed whisperer, that a December rate hike is all but certain, with market focus shifting to the size and pace of the hike.
- 界面新闻界面晚报 | 发改委部署共建“一带一路”拓展新兴领域合作；美联储50基点加息选项浮出水面
国家发展改革委在“十五五”系列发布会上表示，将会同相关部门持续完善新兴领域国际交流合作机制，推动共建“一带一路”务实合作。美国10月核心CPI环比上涨0.3%高于预期，凯投宏观指出上涨范围广泛，市场对美联储12月加息幅度存在分歧，50基点加息选项浮出水面。
- ForexLive今日财经事件前瞻：美国核心CPI超预期后，市场评估美联储50个基点加息可能性
美国核心CPI超预期后，市场正评估美联储50个基点加息的可能性，此前美联储Waller已提出这一选项。美国时段恰逢退伍军人节，债市休市且无经济数据，交易或较为震荡。市场同时关注美伊局势进展，卡塔尔称已争取至少两周外交努力时间，但重大分歧仍存。
- Google News Tài chính Việt Nam美国通胀再度升温，市场押注美联储12月加息
越南媒体报道称美国通胀再度升温，市场据此押注美联储将在12月加息。该报道仅提供标题与摘要，未给出具体通胀数据或市场定价细节。
- Odaily星球日报经济学家：市场夸大了美联储 12 月加息 50 个基点的风险
经济学家认为，市场高估了美联储 12 月加息 50 个基点的风险。该观点针对当前市场对美联储年底加息幅度的定价，认为相关风险被夸大。
- 界面新闻精选CME FedWatch Shows 88.5% Probability of a 25 bp Fed Rate Hike in December
CME FedWatch shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0%, the probability of a 25 bp rate hike is 88.5%, and the probability of a 50 bp rate hike is 11.5%. It also shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged next January is 0%, while the probabilities of cumulative rate hikes of 25, 50, and 75 bp are 33.6%, 59.2%, and 7.1%, respectively.
- Seeking Alpha Market Currents精选After CPI Release, Probability of Fed 50 bp Hike in December Rises to 14.7%
Following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI data, market expectations for a rate increase at the Fed's December policy meeting have heated up markedly, with the probability of a 50 bp hike rising to 14.7%.
- Odaily星球日报精选After CPI, Probability of a 50 bp Fed Rate Hike in December Rises to 15.3%
After the CPI release, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 bp in December rose to 15.3%.
- ForexLive精选US October CPI Preview: Wall Street Expects Cooling Inflation, Fed December Rate-Hike Expectations May Be Hard to Shake
Wall Street expects US October headline CPI to rise 0.3% month over month, down from 0.6% in September, with core CPI easing to 0.2% month over month. Morgan Stanley and BofA both expect headline CPI at 0.2%, with the former forecasting core CPI at 0.19%.
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