UBS：尽管10月CPI偏热，12月美联储加息50个基点的支持仍有限
UBS sees limited support for a 50bp Fed hike in December despite hot October CPI
UBS believes that although US October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and core CPI rose 0.3%, both above expectations, support for a 50bp Fed rate hike in December remains limited, and its base case remains 25bp hikes each in December and March. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11bp to near 5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% on Tuesday, and fed funds futures priced in about 28bp of tightening in December. UBS also noted that three-month annualized core inflation rose to about 3.75%, and prices of tariff-sensitive goods such as toys, furniture and bedding, and household appliances all rose more than 1%.
After October CPI beat expectations, UBS still sticks to only a 25bp hike in December, diverging from fed funds futures pricing of about 28bp; this expectation gap is a key variable for near-term dollar and gold volatility. Worth watching is the rise in three-month annualized core inflation to about 3.75%, and gains of more than 1% in tariff-sensitive goods such as toys, furniture and bedding, and household appliances; if such components continue to strengthen, they could undermine UBS's judgment of limited rate hikes.
UBS在10月CPI超预期后仍判断12月加息25个基点，读者可对照其对核心通胀三个月年化3.75%的拆解理解分歧所在。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com