Brian Sullivan：石油“真实”价格为何可能比当前高 30 至 40 美元
Brian Sullivan: Why the 'real' price of oil is likely $30-$40 higher than where it is now
Brian Sullivan believes the "true" cost of oil has reached $125 a barrel or more because buying physical crude and futures contract prices are two different things and transportation costs have risen significantly. He gave the example that the charter price for a VLCC from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China reached $76 million last week, which is equivalent to about $38 per barrel of crude oil on top of the oil price. He also pointed to gains in tanker-owner stocks and tipped Shell to hit new highs and RBC to focus on expanding U.S. LNG export profits.
The news reminds traders to distinguish futures prices from the "true" cost of physical crude oil: supertanker freight rates have significantly increased physical prices after conversion, meaning that energy trading profits and refining costs deviate significantly from futures quotes. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, this physical premium may affect inflation expectations and the terms of trade of relevant economies through the import cost channel. It is worth paying attention to whether freight rates continue to be high and the performance of oil tankers and LNG-related assets, rather than just tracking futures oil prices.
原文把超级油轮包租价折算为每桶约 38 美元，揭示期货价格与实货成本之间的价差如何影响能源股与炼油利润。
来源：CNBC Top News · cnbc.com