#宏观数据

Editorial Comment

The overall US retail sales in September exceeded expectations, mainly driven by gasoline sales. After excluding gasoline and automobiles, growth slowed down significantly. The control group fell short of expectations, indicating that consumption momentum is not widespread. Traders need to pay attention to the disruption of this data to the Fed's policy expectations and whether the subsequent core retail component will continue to be weak, which may affect the short-term reaction of the U.S. dollar and gold.

Editorial Comment

Although the initial applications data rebounded slightly, it was still below the 200,000 mark. The combination of continued applications and the four-week average fell, indicating that the job market has not deteriorated significantly. This reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to further ease due to weak employment, and poses a marginal constraint on the trading logic of interest-rate-sensitive gold and non-US currencies. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the employment data can continue to verify resilience and the extent of its revision of the Fed's policy expectations.

Editorial Comment

U.S. bond yields fell as funds turned to safety amid the sell-off in technology stocks. At the same time, inflation data exceeded expectations but the interest rate market expected little change in interest rate hikes at the end of the year. This put gold in the context of a game between safe-haven demand and real interest rate expectations. The foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to whether the contraction in risk appetite changes the usual transmission of fluctuations in U.S. bond yields to the U.S. dollar, and the impact of changes in carry trade sentiment on major currency pairs.

Editorial Comment

Hot inflation in the United States has strengthened expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Interest rate differentials have directly suppressed the euro and pushed up the dollar. The exchange rate has quickly reflected changes in interest rate expectations. For gold, a stronger U.S. dollar may pose short-term pressure, and we need to pay attention to whether the Fed's policy signals and inflation data continue this logic.

Editorial Comment

U.S. wholesale prices rose 6.3% year-on-year in September, higher than the expected 5.5% and the largest increase since 2022, indicating that upstream inflationary pressures are still strong. During the same period, retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% month-on-month, providing clues to observe the momentum of terminal consumption. When the two are combined, traders need to pay attention to the combined impact of inflation stickiness and consumption resilience on market risk sentiment.

Editorial Comment

The plunge in Asian stock markets and the pressure on the crypto market show a significant increase in risk aversion, which usually increases the market attention of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen. The collapse of South Korea's Kospi triggered a circuit breaker and risk appetite shrank rapidly. The foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to changes in capital flows between risky currencies and safe-haven currencies.

Editorial Comment

The combination of the general decline in risk assets and the rise in gold and U.S. Treasuries shows that the market is trading on stagflation concerns rather than a simple recovery in risk appetite. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this month has dropped to 29%, weakening the short-term support of the US dollar, and gold's safe haven and anti-stagflation properties have gained a relative advantage. Whether subsequent PPI data and key risk asset levels can stabilize will be the key to judging the continuity of this risk aversion logic.

Editorial Comment

The Governor of the Bank of France's statement attempts to decouple the rise in French bond yields from fiscal fundamentals, which may ease market concerns about France's sovereign risks, but political uncertainty may still continue the volatility of French bonds and the euro. Traders should pay attention to the transmission of political risk to the euro risk premium and the potential impact of changes in risk aversion on gold, rather than just focusing on the deficit data itself.

Editorial Comment

Risks of mutual reinforcement between the U.S. fiscal deficit and long-term yields are accumulating. High debt service costs and competition for capital from AI infrastructure financing may increase pressure on the supply of U.S. debt and amplify fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and real interest rates. Traders need to focus on the stalling of fiscal repairs amid political gridlock and the resulting reassessment of U.S. dollar asset risk premiums and gold's safe-haven pricing.

Editorial Comment

Concerns about U.S. inflation have not dissipated. If PPI and retail sales are hot during the day, it may intensify the upward risk of U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar, thereby affecting the valuation environment of gold and non-U.S. currencies. Traders need to pay attention to the degree to which the data consolidates expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, as well as the marginal change in the probability of a rate hike in October.

Editorial Comment

Gold first declined and then rose after the announcement of CPI, indicating that the market's expectations for an interest rate hike in October were limited, and the price's rapid recovery of losses indicated that data shocks were more digested into short-term fluctuations. If subsequent PPI data deviates from the inflation path, it may amplify gold's sensitive response to interest rate expectations; traders need to pay attention to the gains and losses of key technical levels to judge the sustainability of the market repair.

Editorial Comment

Natixis re-linked the hot CPI to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in October, which means that the market's short-term interest rate expectations may face revisions. For gold and foreign exchange markets, the key is whether rising expectations for interest rate hikes will push up U.S. dollar real interest rates and change the pricing of the policy path in the near future. Traders should pay attention to subsequent statements from Fed officials and the market's adjustments to the probability of the October meeting to assess volatility risks.

Editorial Comment

The U.S. CPI rose to 3.7% year-on-year in September, providing the latest reading for observing the stickiness of inflation. This data may affect the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain tightening, thereby disturbing the valuation environment of the U.S. dollar and gold. In the future, we need to pay attention to its marginal effect on the pricing of real interest rates and policy paths.

Editorial Comment

The president of the IMF questioned the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s idea of ​​relying on growth to resolve debt, and gave specific reference points for a deficit exceeding 6% and a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100%, which means that U.S. debt supply pressure and fiscal sustainability are still core variables in the market. Traders should pay attention to the transmission of high 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to U.S. dollar liquidity and risk appetite, and pay attention to the potential impact of debt concerns on the pricing of safe-haven assets.

Editorial Comment

Spain's core CPI accelerated to 3.1% in September, showing that inflationary pressures are being transmitted from energy to broader prices, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to maintain a tightening stance. Traders need to pay attention to the impact of the overall inflation stickiness in the euro area on the policy path of the European Central Bank, and the resulting fluctuations in the euro against the dollar and gold priced in euros.

Editorial Comment

U.S. existing home sales in September rebounded from the previous month and were better than expected, but still fell overall year-on-year. The NAR's warning that mortgage interest rates suppress the ability to purchase homes shows that housing demand is highly sensitive to the interest rate environment. The data provides structural clues for observing the lagging effects of the Fed's tightening, and traders can pay attention to its indirect impact on the relative strength of the U.S. dollar and gold's safe-haven pricing.

Editorial Comment

U.S. bond yields fell as energy prices fell, with the 10-year yield falling by more than 5 basis points, easing the opportunity cost pressure of holding gold in the short term. However, the higher inflation expectations for September released on Wednesday may re-intensify the uncertainty of the interest rate path, and traders need to pay attention to the interaction between actual inflation data and the persistence of the fall in yields.

Editorial Comment

France's high deficit and borrowing costs have risen to nearly a quarter-century high, the spread between France and Germany has widened, and market discussions have heated up on whether the European Central Bank will be forced to intervene. This adds policy uncertainty to the trend of the euro and may also affect gold market sentiment through risk aversion channels. Follow-up attention should be paid to the European Central Bank's response to intervention expectations and whether the French budget debate can alleviate fiscal concerns.

Editorial Comment

NAB business confidence has fallen back into deep negative territory, while the RBA still warns that tightening may continue, which strengthens the sensitivity of the Australian dollar to subsequent inflation data, and short-term yield fluctuations may intensify. Rising energy costs coupled with central bank tightening also require the gold market to pay attention to marginal changes in real interest rate expectations and risk appetite, rather than just single data.

Editorial Comment

Greene's warning underscores wariness within the Bank of England over the effects of a second wave of inflation, providing more hawkish clues to expectations for a rate hike ahead of its November policy meeting. Traders need to pay attention to the statements of Bank of England members and evidence of the transmission of energy prices to wages. Its pricing effect on the pound and British bond yields may indirectly affect gold through exchange rate channels. The IMF's upward growth forecast did not change her hawkish stance, which means that the market's re-evaluation of the Bank of England's policy path may continue.

Editorial Comment

The sharp correction in Asian stock markets combined with the strengthening of the US dollar as a safe haven reflects the market's repricing of high-valuation sectors and energy cost pressures. For gold traders, they need to pay attention to the tug-of-war between oil prices pushing up inflation expectations and tightening US dollar liquidity, and whether risk aversion can provide independent support for gold prices. In terms of foreign exchange, pay attention to the persistence of the US dollar index in risk aversion and its transmission to non-US currencies.

Editorial Comment

The IMF upwardly revised global growth to 3.1% in 2026, but the source of growth narrowed to 32 economies, indicating that the basis for recovery is not broad; traders need to pay attention to the potential impact of a rapid decline in AI investment on risk appetite and commodity demand, which may intensify the volatility of non-U.S. currencies and safe-haven assets. At the same time, the hypothetical downward movement in oil prices and the reopening schedule of the Strait of Hormuz may affect inflation expectations and the policy paths of major central banks, and are worthy of continued tracking.

Editorial Comment

Delta Air Lines has lowered its profit and cash flow forecasts due to soaring fuel costs, indicating that energy price pressures are being transmitted to the corporate side and fares, but the demand side remains resilient. This provides the market with microscopic clues to observe the stickiness of inflation and the policy path of the Federal Reserve. If relevant data strengthens the spillover of high oil prices to core inflation, it may affect the risk pricing of the US dollar and gold.

Editorial Comment

High-yield bond stratification data provides a window to observe the transmission of credit risk: the spread of CCC grade has risen to about 1,250 basis points while the BB grade is still relatively mild, indicating that the pressure is currently concentrated on the lowest rating and the risk has not yet been systemized. For gold and foreign exchange markets, such signals mean that risk aversion may increase but to a controllable extent. Traders should pay attention to whether credit spreads spread to high ratings and the potential disruption to global liquidity expectations.