PPI 与零售销售带来新风险，美国通胀担忧尚未结束
US inflation worries aren't over yet as PPI and retail sales pose fresh risks for markets
The author believes that US inflation concerns are not over yet, and intraday PPI and retail sales may bring new risks to the market. Previously, higher-than-expected CPI has put pressure on the stock market. If PPI is hot and retail sales are stronger than expected, it may push up U.S. bond yields and the dollar, and the stock market will continue to weaken. However, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October is about 29%, which has not increased significantly from about 22%. A rate hike in December is almost certain.
Concerns about U.S. inflation have not dissipated. If PPI and retail sales are hot during the day, it may intensify the upward risk of U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar, thereby affecting the valuation environment of gold and non-U.S. currencies. Traders need to pay attention to the degree to which the data consolidates expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, as well as the marginal change in the probability of a rate hike in October.
作者把日内PPI、零售销售和初请失业金数据置于昨日CPI之后判断，认为若数据偏热可能推高美债收益率和美元，股市继续承压。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com