#technical-analysis

# Why Gold Prices Are Soaring and Plunging Intraday short-term reference: Long in the OB zone — 4040-4045 Short at the hourly neckline — 4110-4130 Here's the thing. Gold won't go up in July-August. The timing's off. The sentiment's off. And look at crude oil — it keeps bouncing back. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are sitting at highs. So honestly? There's no real reason for gold or silver to rally right now.

Gold just printed its fourth straight monthly bearish candle. The structure? Still tilted to the downside. No question about it. On the weekly chart, we saw resistance again around the 4900 area — same story, different month. Price rolled over and drifted lower, choppy as hell. It broke below previous support and then sliced through the 4000 handle. That weakened the trend even further. Yeah, we got a short-term bounce, but it couldn't hold. Classic fakeout. Now on the daily, gold is stuck in a wide-range consolidation. I'm watching the 4000 level closely — that's my key support below. Here's the thing: we're in a consolidation phase within a downtrend. Just waiting for a breakout. Could go either way, but the bias is still bearish until proven otherwise. I need to stay sharp on the risks here. Early next week, I'll keep an eye on the 4080 area as resistance above. And obviously, the 4000 support. If we break below that? I'm looking at the 3960/3940 zone next. That's where things could get interesting.

Gold bounced from 3,963 to 4,033 in the evening session — a textbook technical rebound I called earlier. But the bounce is weak. Lower highs, lower lows, resistance keeps dropping. Do not try to pick a bottom. 4H chart: near-term resistance at 4,050–4,060. Key level is 4,100. Structure says sell the rallies. My plan: Short 4,040–4,050, stop 4,070, target 3,980. Break of 3,980 opens the next leg down. Trade what you see, not what you hope.

**Choppy / Sideways State** Price touches **4001** on the upside? That's when I start looking for a rebound. Targets are **4015**, then **4035**. But if it drops to **3966** instead — different story. Downside momentum picks up. My eyes go to **3935**, then **3886**. Honestly? This is the kind of market where you don't chase. You wait. Let price come to you.

Range-bound market Price touching 4001 → upside breakout probability increases, targets 4015 4035 Price touching 3966 → downside risk increases, targets 3935 3886