Trading Blog

📊 Gold Weekly Review & Outlook

The market formed a clear oversold recovery this week, driven by Thursday's weak NFP. US jobs data missed expectations sharply, weakening hawkish Fed expectations and giving gold a strong bullish boost.

Fundamental view: • Short-term: NFP miss → USD pullback → yield relief → gold recovery window • Medium-term: High-rate environment persists. Strong USD and yields remain the dominant drag. Q2 saw gold's worst quarterly performance in years (nearly 30% max drawdown).

Technical structure: • Weekly: 8-week losing streak halted, but downtrend intact. Key support 3943, resistance 4330 — below this, all rallies are corrective. • Daily: Clear bullish recovery. Price above all MAs, Bollinger mid-band reclaimed. Support 4080-4120. • 4H: Strongest momentum. MACD expanding, higher highs. Support 4120-4150, resistance 4220-4260.

Next week plan: 1. Long on dips 4120-4150, target 4200-4220 2. Short only if price fails at 4220 with reversal 3. Core bias: follow 4H/daily bullish structure for longs

Bottom line: short-term bullish, medium-term bearish divergence. Trade the recovery, don't confuse it with a reversal.

Weekly Trading Wrap-Up

The true essence of trading: slow is steady, steady is far. Let go of the fantasy of getting rich overnight. Every profitable trade comes from a complete setup and strict risk management discipline.

Stay grounded, stick to your plan, and protect your capital. Quick profits fade compound growth lasts.

The market is unpredictable — stay rooted in the present. Let go of past experience bias. Refuse gamble mentality.

Consolidation is the path. Taking profit is the result. Close the loop.

June is closing. Seize the opportunity. Leave no regrets.

Gold's bounce is still running — short-term technical adjustment in play. But let me be clear: the bigger downtrend hasn't changed.

A bounce is a bounce, not a reversal. Once this leg runs its course, we're likely heading lower again.

If gold keeps pushing up and reaches the 4060-4080 zone for the first time, I'm entering short.

This isn't calling a top. It's trading the exhaustion of a counter-trend move within a downtrend. In a bear market, selling into resistance is far safer than trying to pick a bottom.

Until the structure turns bullish, I'm only selling rallies, not buying dips.

Weekend Outlook — Gold's $4,000 Battle and What NFP Means Next Week

Gold bounced hard from $3,959 on Thursday and closed the week around $4,087. The $4,000 line held — for now. But let's not confuse a technical snap-back with a trend reversal.

Here's what I'm looking at this weekend:

The PCE came in at 4.1% on Friday. That's the highest in three years. Rate cut expectations are dead — market now pricing an 80% chance of a December hike instead. The dollar is at 101 and climbing. That's not a friendly environment for gold.

But here's what the headlines won't tell you: central banks bought 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026. 89% of surveyed central banks plan to increase reserves. The structural demand is still there — it's just being drowned out by Fed noise.

The 4H chart tells me we're in a consolidation zone. $3,982–$4,000 is the floor. $4,125 is the first ceiling. Until one of these breaks, we're range-bound.

Next week's NFP is the catalyst. A soft print kills the rate-hike narrative and weakens the dollar — gold could rally to $4,220. A hot print confirms the hawkish path — and I wouldn't be surprised to see $3,800 tested.

My plan: wait for the data. Trade the reaction, not the anticipation. Range rules during the chop. Let NFP tell us where we're going.

Two positions I'm watching on my desk in Singapore right now: 1. If $4,000 holds into Wednesday — I'll look for longs targeting $4,125 2. If NFP comes hot and we break $3,982 — I'm waiting for the retest to short

No predictions. Only preparations.

— Lin

Choppy / Sideways State

Price touches 4001 on the upside? That's when I start looking for a rebound. Targets are 4015, then 4035.

But if it drops to 3966 instead — different story. Downside momentum picks up. My eyes go to 3935, then 3886.

Honestly? This is the kind of market where you don't chase. You wait. Let price come to you.

Beginners: do not try to catch a falling knife. A hundred-dollar drop feels scary but gold has been here before. It is called a correction, not a collapse. Wait for a clear support level to form before entering. The market will still be there next week.

Spot gold just below $4,000. UOB 1oz PAMP gold bar at SGD 5,559. Same metal, completely different products. Spot is wholesale electronic trading. Physical includes fabrication, margin, duties, and GST. One is for short-term speculation, the other for wealth preservation. Know the difference.

Gold loan businesses in Indonesia and Vietnam are seeing a spike. When prices drop sharply, people either buy more at "cheap" levels or pledge existing gold for cash. Both signals tell me the region still has a strong gold culture. Trade spot, own physical.

SEA traders are getting hit twice. Gold drops $100, AND the rupiah lost 2% against USD this month. Your deposit buys fewer dollars now. If you trade XAUUSD from an IDR account, your effective risk per pip is higher. Adjust lot sizes down.

Put option volume on gold is climbing. That tells me professional traders are hedging against further downside. If you are sitting on cash waiting to buy — do not rush. $4,000 is a psychological level, not a magic one. It will break both ways.

Deutsche says gold hits $4,800. Goldman says bonds are better. Banks disagreeing this loudly means nobody knows. My framework: halve position size, watch $3,900 and $4,250, wait for a clean break before committing.

The 2015-2018 tightening cycle cost me a lot because I kept fighting the trend. I thought "gold is cheap, it has to bounce." It did not bounce for three years. Lesson: do not fight the Fed. Trade the range, do not buy and hold.