第 01 章
一交易日,一次結算:金價下跌 4,000 點,然後是 3,970 點,然後是 3,900 點,最終收於 3,876.89 點,此前下跌了 3.59%,而普通管道無法解釋這一點。
10 月 30 日星期五紐約現貨交易時段收於美國東部時間 16:00,即 10 月 31 日星期六北京時間 04:00,該網站自己的每日柱線結算價為每盎司 3,876.89 美元,開盤價為 4,022.16,最高價為 4025.72,025.25 25.257252525.25.257,25025。五分鐘的系列從北京時間 04:13 的高點 4,028.21 到北京時間 04:48 的低點 3,872.99,並在北京時間 04:54 結算印到 3,876.89,Kitco 自己的同一交易日記錄將再次下跌至 3,869.30 美元。最後超過4000的印刷是北京時間13點43分4003.13;北京22點24分首次跌破3900的是3899.99;北京時間21:33,紐約現貨時段開盤於3,936.21。
然後週末做了一件會議上無法做到的事情,這就是現金調用。 週四紐約收盤後的幾個小時內,幣安的創紀錄盜竊金額約為 63 億美元,約 13 億美元的槓桿加密貨幣頭寸被清算,比特幣跌至六週低點,接近 76,400 美元。 週四晚上解除槓桿的市場就是週五早上解除槓桿的市場,而金屬是它所擁有的最具流動性的東西。 因此,本報告結束時的問題不是金屬是否突破了 3,900 點。問題在於週一開盤時貸方是否再次要求現金,因為這是本文件中唯一解釋實際收益率下降、美元走軟和同一天買入包裝的機制。
這一行上的每一點都是該網站自己的五分鐘系列的打印,帶有自己的時間戳,並且它覆蓋的窗口是明示的而不是暗示的。 系列在北京10月30日00:19開始,也就是10月29日紐約12:19,所以它從上一個紐約時段的最後三小時四十分鐘開始,一直持續到10月31日北京04:54,也就是10月31日北京04:54 10 月31日北京04:54,也就是10月31日北京04:54 10 月 30 日紐約 16:54。 最後一點是結算列印,而不是即時列印,本報告的上一版本表示不存在結算。 繪製垂直軸,以便先前的結算線位於該價格實際屬於框架的位置,並且在會話高點上方花費 264 美元的空白空間。 該軸從 3,872 到 4,292,網格線相距 105 美元,這將 10 月 29 日結算價 4,021.28 置於框架上真實位置的兩美元以內;標有價格的參考線不得以非價格繪製。因此,該時段自身的區間佔據了框架的下三分之一:北京時間 04:13 的 4,028.21 下降到北京時間 04:48 的 3,872.99。網站自己的五分鐘系列中該時段的最低價為 3,872.99,而不是早期版本標記為最低價的 3,899.99;首次跌破3,900點是在北京時間22點24分,金價繼續下跌了六小時二十四分鐘。 Kitco 自己的同一交易日記錄的低點仍然較低,為 3,869.30,由於市場整個週末都休市,因此在結算後沒有任何打印。 10 月 30 日的官方每日柱線的低點為 3,872.24,結構性報價文件的滾動視窗為 3,870.20,Kitco 自己的記錄為 3,869.30,所有四個都被報告,而不是被選擇。
第 02 章
週五,四位聯準會官員發表講話,其中兩人也說了同樣的話,在曲線前端上漲的同時,市場仍預計 12 月升息的可能性為 72.4%。
10 月 28 日,委員會將利率維持在 3.75% 至 4.00% 之間,兩位州長投票支持升息。週五,達拉斯和聖路易斯總統公開表示需要進一步緊縮,里士滿總統表示方向明確,但步伐不明確,舊金山總統談到了人工智慧,但根本沒有提及利率路徑。庫克和哈馬克這兩位持異議的州長被列入解釋投票的名單,但兩人的言論都沒有得到證實。芝加哥商品交易所 12 月定價收在 72.4%,至少上漲 25 個基點,同日下午兩年期公債殖利率下跌 5 個基點。週末沒有聯準會官員發表講話,聯準會主席宣布更改會議日曆,從 2027 年秋季開始,八次年度會議之一將改為戰略討論,不進行利率投票,這是美聯儲在此窗口內唯一不是演講的項目。
週五是聯準會一年中最繁忙的講話日,市場對此的反應是買進曲線的前端。 五名官員出席了會議。其中聖路易和達拉斯兩位總統公開表示,委員會需要進一步收緊政策,達拉斯總統給了一個數字:至少兩次升息25個基點。里士滿總統表示,前進的方向很簡單,問題是速度。這位舊金山總統談到了人工智慧,但沒有提及利率路徑。兩名反對加息的州長被列出來解釋他們的投票,但沒有人聽到他們的聲音。 儘管如此,兩年期公債殖利率在官方曲線上下跌了 5 個基點,在美國東部時間 15:00 螢幕上下跌了 7.50 個基點,而十年期與兩年期國債利差從 33.20 個基點擴大至 34.80 個基點。 這種組合並不是鷹派的重新定價。鷹派的重新定價會提升前端並壓平曲線。週五的結果恰恰相反:前端反彈幅度最大,曲線變陡。最有可能的解讀是,市場聽到了周三和周四聽到的同樣的消息,已經定價,然後賣出股票。 12月定價以芝加哥商業交易所自己的工具至少上漲25個基點的72.4%收盤,而10月30日北京06:05公佈的綜合數據為74.9%,10月北京06:00重新發布的印刷數據為72% 31 日,交易期間一度保持穩定的可能性超過 30%。 這些口徑是並排列印的,而不是平均的,因為它們之間的差異比任何一個與早期版本 70% 之間的差異都要小。 這張表上對金屬真正重要的數字是沒有移動到足以傷害它的數字。 如果聯準會自己的鷹派在記錄中表示需要再加息兩次,而 12 月合約僅達到 72.4%,那麼 12 月會議定價作為一種形式,金屬的問題根本不是政策路徑。
數據
| 時間 | 人物/機構 | 核心表態 | 方向 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 14:00 ET | FOMC statement聯邦公開市場委員會 - 決定和聲明 | 以 10 比 2 的投票結果將利率維持在 3.75% 到 4.00% 是本輪週期中最鷹派的結果,金價當晚上漲至 4,069.20。 庫克州長在擔任州長後的第一次反對意見中表示反對,哈馬克總統則反對加息四分之一個百分點,而新的措辭,即積累更多信息將有助於決定政策路徑,被市場解讀為一個信號加息即將到來。 週五添加的是該聲明的價格:投票支持該聲明的兩名反對者計劃對其進行解釋,而市場對鷹派立場的回應是下跌 3.6%。 | 利空 |
| Oct 28, 14:30 ET | Kevin Warsh聯準會主席 - 記者會 | 拒絕指導本身就是一種立場,市場將其解讀為溫和鴿派。 主席 Warsh 拒絕對 12 月的走勢發表任何評論,他表示信貸條件已經收緊,但不同意緊縮,並表示 9 月的降息對通膨的影響慢於預期。 四天后,市場在同一次會議上定價了 72.4% 的升息可能性,因此拒絕指導並沒有削弱 12 月合約。 | 中性 |
| Oct 29, 22:39 to 23:29 Beijing | Kevin Hassett白宮國家經濟委員會 - 對發布的評論 | 一位白宮官員告訴聯準會如何處理下一次通膨數據,這是一個新變量,而且不是一個鴿派變量。 主任哈塞特表示,如果 10 月消費者價格和個人消費支出數據強勁,政府將推動聯準會升息,並在發布後重申了這一立場。 無論如何,金價週五下跌 3.6%,這是本週期第一次緊縮的政治順風和金價指向相反的方向。 | 利空 |
| Oct 29, 15:15 CET | Christine Lagarde歐洲央行行長 - 貨幣政策決定、聲明和問答 | 在 2 月總統下台的情況下維持 2.50% 的存款利率是一個決定中的兩個故事。 歐洲央行在 9 月提高 25 個基點後於 10 月 29 日舉行利率決議,能源價格是談判雙方的主要論點。 週五的歐洲會議上又增加了來自同一機構的三個項目:沒有利率決定的管理委員會會議、預期通膨上升的第四季度專業預測員調查以及關於歐洲採用人工智慧的演講,這些內容當天對歐元的影響均不超過百分之五。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 08:00 ET | Thomas Cook and Beth Hammack聯準會理事 - 計劃解釋他們的異議,但未證實任何言論 | 支持加息的三票中的兩票本應在周五上午公開解釋,但截至本版撰寫時,兩人的言論均未得到證實。 庫克州長在作為州長的第一次反對意見中投票支持加息 25 個基點,而哈馬克總統則在公開場合辯稱政策不夠嚴格,小幅但更頻繁的加息更為可取,兩人都被列入在東部時間 08:00 左右發表講話的名單。 這裡沒有對他們兩人所說的內容做出任何斷言,因為沒有任何內容得到證實。 這是周五記錄中最大的一個空白,它是被陳述的,而不是被填補的。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 09:30 ET | Thomas Barkin里士滿聯邦儲備銀行行長 - Sirius XM 電台採訪 | 前進的方向很簡單,問題是步伐,這是消除了鷹派緊迫性的鷹派立場。 巴爾金總統表示,通膨高企,需求穩定,失業率相對較低,因此前進的方向相當簡單,但當聯準會不太落後於曲線時,漸進的方法是有意義的,他說問題是步伐。他還表示,他所在地區的企業面臨著不斷上升的成本壓力,而且轉嫁這些成本的意願也越來越強,四五年的通膨上升讓人們更容易主張更高的價格,而人工智慧資本支出正在成為貨幣政策可以抑制的需求方通膨的一個來源。 他今年不是選民,明年就會成為選民,所以這是一個關於反對者聯盟的信號,而不是一個決定。 | 利空 |
| Oct 30, 12:00 ET | Mary Daly舊金山聯邦儲備銀行行長 - 在舊金山聯邦儲備銀行會議上的開幕致辭 | 這是聯準會週五唯一一次完全沒有提及利率路徑的講話,市場將其解讀為缺乏訊號,而不是一個訊號。 戴利總統表示,人工智慧真正影響聯準會對近期和中期政策的看法,並對價格穩定和就業最大化產生影響,她沒有為 12 月的會議設定路徑。 10月中旬,她曾表示聯準會可能需要進一步升息以抑制通膨,但並沒有在10月採取行動的緊迫性;星期五她也沒有重複這句話。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 12:30 ET | Alberto Musalem聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行行長 - 影子公開市場委員會 | 需要進一步緊縮,而且很快,這是美聯儲官員週五使用的最直接的語言。 穆薩利姆總統告訴影子公開市場委員會,通貨膨脹率很高且基礎廣泛,並且可能持續存在,貨幣和金融狀況仍然寬鬆,第三季度數據證實了經濟的潛在實力,並且很快需要進一步收緊貨幣政策,因為政策不適合降低通貨膨脹。 該官員與本報告上一版本僅在觀察名單上列出了一個名字,沒有記錄任何評論。 | 利空 |
| Oct 30, 13:30 ET | Lorie Logan達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行行長 - 戴維森學院活動 | 至少兩次升息,來自於 2026 年投票且有 12 月投票權的總統。 洛根總統表示,鑑於目前的前景,委員會顯然應該實施至少兩次 25 個基點的加息,據她估計,聯邦基金利率目標範圍至少比可以施加一些溫和限制並開始將通膨恢復到目標水平低 50 個基點。 這是周五任何官員做出的最具體的遠期承諾,無論如何,曲線前端在當天下午上漲了 7.50 個基點。 | 利空 |
| Oct 29, 11:00 Beijing | Kazuo Ueda日本央行行長 - 決定與新聞發布會 | 以 8 比 1 的比例反對升息並加速交易所交易基金銷售,這是日本央行所做的最積極的無所事事。 政策利率維持在 1.25%,只有高田一人反對支持 1.5%,且央行修改了其交易所交易基金處置參考。 行長上田表示核心通膨已達到目標,這與市場所需的說法不同,日圓兌美元在紐約時段收盤走強,從 157.96 升至 157.37。 | 中性 |
| Oct 28, 15:00 ET | Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand同一天另外兩個決定,每個方向一個 | 一家央行升息,另一家央行出人意料地維持利率不變,兩者都與美元走勢相關,而不是與金屬相關。 加拿大央行於 10 月 28 日將利率調高 25 個基點至 2.50%,紐西蘭央行維持利率不變。 週五加幣兌美元收盤走強,從 1.3986 收於 1.3956,因此利率決定繼續發揮作用,而金屬則不然。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 08:30 ET | US employment cost index美國勞工統計局-第三季發布,北京時間20:30發布 | 早上的表现最疲软,金属还是下跌,跌幅是自 6 月份以来最大的单日跌幅。 该指数本季度上涨 0.8%,预期上涨 0.8%,第二季度上涨 0.9%,工资和薪金上涨 0.7%,预期上涨 0.9%。 它于北京20:30发布,它在本版本的窗口内,包含其发布时间和共识数字。 在該版本和紐約收盤之間出售的黃金並未在此數字上出售。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, 08:30 ET | Canada gross domestic product加拿大統計局-8月發布,北京時間20:30發布 | 连续第二个月没有增长,9 月份已经出现下滑。 实际国内生产总值基本持平,为 0.0%,而预期为 0.2%,其中服务生产业下降 0.1%,其中石油和天然气开采量下降 1.4%,而 9 月份的提前预测为负 0.1%。 北京时间20:30发布,发布时间及共识数字均在本期窗口内。 | 利空 |
| Oct 30, 09:45 ET | Chicago manufacturing surveyMNI 和芝加哥供應管理研究所 - 10 月發布,北京時間 21:45 發布 | 經濟放緩,而不是收縮,這對金屬沒有幫助。 该指数为 55.3,预期为 56.1,9 月份为 58.8,仍处于扩张区域。 北京时间21:45发布,发布时间及共识数字均在本期窗口内。 | 中性 |
| Oct 30, evening local | Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations10月30日霍爾木茲海峽事件 | 本報告上一版統計了24小時內有3艘油輪在霍爾木茲海峽觸雷並起火;週五晚上的計數為四艘。 革命卫队海军宣布,10月30日下午,第四艘油轮在无视无线电警告后离开该海峡南部未经授权的航道时触雷并起火,该油轮载有超过200万桶原油。英国海事贸易运营部另外报告称,一艘船只在拉旺岛以南约 40 海里处被一枚不明弹丸击中左舷并起火,船员已确认安全。 油价做出回应:西德克萨斯中质原油12月结算价为每桶104.12美元,上涨2.12美元,布伦特12月结算价为每桶117.64美元,上涨2.76美元,涨幅为2.40%,近月布伦特原油价格为113.40美元。 這是其中第四個也是最大的一個統計,也是第一個將通膨衝動變成12月問題的統計。 | 利空 |
第 03 章
當日金價下跌 3.6% 時,美元收盤走軟,六大主要貨幣中有五個貨幣對美元走強,這是兩者首次出現如此嚴重的差距。
10月30日紐約時段美元指數收在101.878,跌幅0.16%,其中歐元報1.1167,英鎊報1.3394,日元報157.37,瑞郎報0.8236,加幣報1.3956,瑞典克朗報9.8170。另外兩種口徑的相同接近值分別為 101.9500(下跌 0.17%)和 101.97(上漲 0.08%),並且所有這三種口徑都被報告,而不是被選擇。該網站自己的結構化文件在美國東部時間 16:54 參考滾動前收盤價,包含 1.11659、1.33921 和 157.528。
週五的美元走勢是本報告與前一版本完全矛盾的部分。 第 311 版認為,美元堅挺,而金屬下跌,這就是普通通路產生的結果。 10月30日紐約收盤價則相反:美元指數下跌0.16%至101.878,歐元堅挺百分之五,英鎊堅挺四分之一,瑞士法郎堅挺三分之一,加幣堅挺五分之一,瑞典克朗堅挺近一半,只有日圓走弱。 所以普通頻道沒有火,報告必須這麼說,而不是悄悄保留舊句子。 調度中還有比索引本身更重要的第二件事。週五,科技股大跌:標準普爾500指數下跌1.82%,那斯達克指數下跌2.86%,費城半導體指數下跌7.2%,英特爾下跌28.94%,SanDisk下跌13.47%,而能源板塊上漲1.91%,消費必需品上漲1.38%。這是市場上貝塔係數最高的資產的輪換,而金屬是本報告範圍內貝塔係數最高的資產。 這種輪換的避險部分進入了美國國債、英鎊和瑞士法郎,這正是機構需要降低風險而不是需要對沖通膨時出現的模式。 週五的美元走勢對黃金沒有任何影響,金價還是下跌了 3.6%。 週末為這一趨勢增添了一個證據,它不是來自貨幣報價,因為沒有貨幣報價。 週六發布的一份中國市場報告稱,外國資金以創紀錄的金額流入美國科技股、公司債和電網資產,而避險資金流向日圓和瑞士法郎。 這是美元對沖解除的標誌,週四晚上,同一市場不得不以加密貨幣籌集現金。 在周五的報告中,瑞郎已經是最乾淨的套利者,當瑞郎兌美元下跌 3.6% 的當天,瑞郎兌美元上漲了 0.34%。沒有任何貨幣印刷的周末是報告一次結算與下一次結算之間的美元價格的唯一誠實方式。
數據
| 貨幣對 | 收盤 | 日變動 | 第四季預測與邏輯 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1167 | ▲ +0.05 | 本週歐元表現最為出色,黃金對此並不在意,週五兩者首次出現背離。 紐約收盤消息顯示,10 月 30 日歐元兌美元匯率為 1.1167,之前為 1.1162,黃金下跌 3.6%。該網站自己的結構化文件在美國東部時間 16:54 的參考價為 1.11659,而之前的滾動收盤價為 1.11775,該收盤價是在每次民意調查而不是結算時重新計算的。倫敦時段歐元一度最高至1.1189,隨後收於1.1201區域,歐洲央行29日維持利率不變,30日再次開會未有決定。 美元沒有走強不是金屬下跌的原因,週五也不是。 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3394 | ▲ +0.25 | 秋季預算是本週最強勁的英鎊故事,週五是它出現的日子。 英鎊 10 月 30 日收在 1.3394,之前為 1.3361,漲幅為四分之一,這是收盤報告中六大主要貨幣中最大的每日變動,該網站自己的文件顯示為 1.33921。 英鎊走勢是避險買盤可見的地方,它轉向英鎊和美國國債,而不是黃金。 |
| USD/JPY | 157.37 | ▼ -0.37 | 日本央行在這裡做了工作,方向是溫和地反對黃金,而不是支持它。 日圓在 8 比 1 維持在 1.25% 後走強,高田反對支持 1.5%,行長 Ueda 表示核心通膨已達到目標。該貨幣對在倫敦時段一度低至157.58,隨後回升至157.16;紐約收盤價為157.37,此前為157.96。 這是當天兌美元走軟的六大主要貨幣中唯一的一個,而且走軟的原因與美元的大方向無關。 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3956 | ▼ -0.21 | 美元兌加幣連續三天下跌,既是美元故事,也是外交故事。 10 月 30 日,加幣兌 1.3986 收在 1.3956,加拿大 8 月國內生產毛額持平於 0.0%,預期為 0.2%,而 9 月已下跌至負 0.1%。 成長持平和貨幣走強是一個利率差異的故事,這也是周五對黃金不起作用的通道。 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8236 | ▼ -0.34 | 瑞郎是本報告中最乾淨的套利者,週五它對金屬進行了套利。 瑞士法郎 10 月 30 日收盤於 0.8236 兌 0.8264,這是收盤時六種貨幣中第二大波動。 當科技股綜合體崩盤且殖利率下降時,出價將進入不帶有股票風險和久期風險的貨幣,而法郎就是它的落腳點。 |
| USD/SEK | 9.8170 | ▼ -0.44 | 瑞典克朗在收盤時出現了最大的單次走勢,但市場上沒有人對此進行報導。 瑞典克朗 10 月 30 日收盤價為 9.8170,兌 9.8608,下跌 0.44%。 六種主要貨幣中的五種兌美元匯率堅挺,足以發揮重要作用,金屬下跌 3.6%;這是上一版本的美元固定讀數無法產生的算術。 |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.878 | ▼ -0.16 | 美元走軟和金屬在同一交易日下跌 3.6% 是一種異常現象,它有一個值得檢驗而不是假設的機械解釋。 紐約收盤消息顯示該指數為 101.878,較前一交易日的 102.037 下跌 0.16%。另外兩個口徑的相同收盤價則分別為 101.9500 和 101.97,分別為下跌 0.17% 和上漲 0.08%,這三個指標是並列報告的,而不是一致的。該網站自己的結構化文件不包含指數級別,但包含其自己的 16:54 ET 參考值的六種貨幣。 第 311 版寫道,美元堅挺,而金屬下跌,這是普通管道產生的結果,該閱讀已被點名撤回。 |
第 04 章
流動複合體沒有清算,金價突破了低於其的唯一公佈的目標,而市場上最大的機構目標現在距離該目標還遠百分之二十到三十。
美國東部時間週五 15:30 發布的 10 月 27 日商品期貨報告顯示,管理資金淨多頭合約為 105,562 份合約,本週增加 1,356 份合約,未平倉合約為 396,810 份。 SPDR Gold Trust 於 10 月 30 日增持 0.57 噸,至 1,041.653 噸,前一天減持 2.28 噸。唯一公佈的低於金價的年終目標——新華財經分析師的區間——不再如此。
本報告中公佈的三個數字在結算時改變了符號或改變了大小,其中之一就是下一節存在的原因。 首先,上一版超出其截止點的商品期貨報告已經發布,它顯示管理資金淨多頭為 105,562 份合約,本週增加 1,356 份,未平倉合約為 396,810 份,因此每個櫃檯一直在等待的去槓桿化並沒有發生。其次,包裝商當天並沒有放棄噸位:SPDR Gold Trust 增加了 0.57 噸至 1,041.653 噸,而前一天放棄了 2.28 噸,因此前一版本使用的流量敘述在來源處是相反的。第三,本報告表格中唯一公佈的低於金價的目標不再如此:新華財經分析師的年終區間為 3,900 至 4,025 美元,比之前的截止點低 4.38 美元,目前比結算價高 23.11 美元。最後一個變化是本頁上最重要的數字,因為它刪除了本報告唯一發布的下限,並將金屬價格置於桌面上任何房子已發布的最低水平之下。 桌面上的所有其他目標在周五都變得更加遙遠,並且沒有一個被修改。 基金數據沒有說明的是拋售從何而來,答案就在股票綜合體中:礦商的下跌幅度約為金價的兩倍,這是保證金訊號,而不是對黃金看法的改變。 週末產生了第一個相反方向的流量資料。 週六公佈的 Wind 數據顯示,截至 10 月 23 日當週,中國 20 只上市黃金上市交易基金吸收 5.23 億元人民幣,放棄 1.371 元。截至10月30日當週,合計規模由10月初的2,979.1億元降至2,839.6億元,一個月內縮水近140億元。 因此,世界上最大的包裝紙在周五買入,而中國最大的上市國內綜合體在同一周賣出,這些是不同的衡量標準,在這裡不進行協調。
數據
- 不間斷的流動是官方的流動,也是黃金下跌 3.6% 當天唯一流動的流動。 中國人民銀行在 9 月連續第 23 個月成為淨買家,將官方黃金儲備從 7,673 萬盎司增加到 7,747 萬盎司,週五 SPDR 黃金信託基金增加了 0.57 噸,達到 1,041.653 噸,而黃金在下降3.6%。商品期貨部位也不是拋售的根源:10 月 27 日的報告顯示,管理資金淨多頭為 105,562 份合約,本週增加 1,356 份,未平倉合約約 396,810 份,其中多頭合約約 122,508 份合約,空46 份合約,946 份合約。 當金屬在三週內損失了三分之一的價值時,包裝買入,期貨訂單增加,央行繼續買入,這使得股票綜合體成為唯一可能出現拋售的地方。
- 黃金的折現率論點在結算時比交易日中點時更為強烈,並且在市場使用的框架中也更為強烈。 根據財政部自己的日終文件,十年期實際收益率從 2.63% 下跌至 2.60%,而十年期名目收益率下降了 4 個基點,而十年期盈虧平衡則壓縮了 1 個基點。兩年期公債下跌了五個基點,三十年期公債下跌了一個基點,因此曲線在前端變陡,下午屏幕上十年期與兩年期利差從 33.20 個基點擴大至 34.80 個基點。 實際殖利率下降降低了持有非收益資產的機會成本,而前端反彈最猛烈的是市場表示鷹派路徑已被定價,而不是迫在眉睫。 12月會議結束時,至少升息25個基點的可能性為72.4%,這已經足夠正式,表明金屬的問題是定位問題而不是政策問題。
- 本周末,金价下方的需求面又多了一个证据,它来自官方买家,而不是资金流。 中國人民銀行9月連續第23個月成為淨買家,將官方儲備從7673萬盎司提升至7747萬盎司,10月30日,央行黨委重申適度寬鬆的貨幣政策,流動性充裕。 連續二十三個月買入的官方買家是該頁面上唯一一個其部位不取決於價格的參與者,並且不會在追加保證金時出售。
- 本系列一直在等待的清算出現在股市,而不是金屬,而且比金屬本身的跌幅還要大。 那斯達克指數下跌 2.86%,標準普爾 500 指數下跌 1.82%,費城半導體指數下跌 7.2%,其中英特爾下跌 28.94%,SanDisk 下跌 13.47%,Reddit 下跌 29.28%。 金礦股的跌幅大約是金屬價格的兩倍:VanEck 金礦股交易所交易基金下跌 5.91%,KraneShares 金礦股基金下跌 6.81%,iShares 全球礦股基金下跌 5.65%,Harmony Gold 下跌 8.14%,而金銀交易所交易基金下跌 3.47% 和金銀交易所交易基金。 这个比率是保证金事件的标志。而不是對黃金看法的改變,這就是為什麼黃金和礦商一起下跌,而黃金本身的通道根本沒有移動。
- 全年供應面一直在悄悄拋售,而各國央行一直在悄悄買入,週五石油衝擊使 12 月通膨數據小數點後第四位。 俄羅斯央行在 9 月出售了 6 噸黃金,這是連續第十個月出售黃金,也是 2019 年以來的最低儲備,哈薩克斯坦計劃將黃金在其外匯儲備中的份額從 78% 削減至 75%,按當前價格計算約為 14 噸。世界黃金協會截至10月23日的一週數據顯示,全球實物支持基金淨流出約12.1億美元,其中美國淨流出17億美元,而歐洲則淨流出4.85億美元。週五,霍爾木茲海峽迎來了當天的第四艘油輪,運載量超過 200 萬桶,推動布倫特 12 月原油價格上漲 2.40%,至 117.64 美元,西德克薩斯中質原油價格上漲 2.08%,至 104.12 美元。 一天四艘油輪的升級是一個石油供應故事,它出現在 10 月份的消費者價格和個人消費支出數據上,然後在12 月的會議,它對金屬所做的唯一事情就是提高金屬必須清算的實際利率。
- 打破金屬的流動性從來沒有在金屬中,週末終於給了數字。 幣安被盜後,大約 13 億美元的槓桿加密貨幣頭寸被清算,比特幣跌至六週低點,接近 76,400 美元,以太幣跌至兩個月低點,接近 2,178 美元,其中約 30 億被盜資產被凍結在鏈上,交易所用公司資金支付其餘資產。 Chainaanalysis 和 TRM Labs 追蹤到這些資金來自一個朝鮮組織,而攻擊本身是在周四紐約收市後的幾個小時內開始的,因此它發生在股票清算之前,而不是之後。 當部位必須因追加保證金而平倉時,金屬是本報告範圍內賣出速度最快的東西,週五引用的技術分析師正是這麼說的。 這是一種熊市情況,不需要單一的看跌黃金觀點即可發揮作用,也是本頁流量數據無法看到的情況,因為流量數據涵蓋了黃金,而不是必須籌集的現金。
- 新華財經分析師,年末區間(10月30日)3,900+0.60%這是公佈的表格中唯一一個曾經低於黃金的水平,而在結算時,它比黃金高出 23.11 美元。 新華社財經分析師公佈的年末區間為 3,900 至 4,025,計算時取中點。 上一版本的截止價為 3,904.38,該金屬比該範圍高出 4 美元,而本版本的結算價為 3,876.89,比其下限低 23.11 美元,因此本報告表格中的單一公佈下限已被清除,並且該金屬下方沒有可供參考的公佈水平。 該金屬在該網站自己的五分鐘系列中交易至 3,872.99,並以官方日線為3,872.24,均低於3,900。
- 道富環球投資顧問公司,2027 年第一季業績(10 月 30 日)4,750+22.52%一家機構在金價突破 4,000 點兩天後提高了對牛市低端的信念,這是有關交易台的事實,而不是有關市場的事實。 道富銀行將其 2027 年第一季情境區間維持在 4,750 美元,而結算價與該數字的距離已從 21.66% 擴大到 22.52%。 2027 年第一季的範圍是尚未開始的季度的預測,它已發布,因此在此表中。
- 摩根士丹利,2026 年第四季(2025 年 12 月展望)4,800+23.81%此表中最古老的數字也是最接近被標記的數字。 摩根士丹利於 2025 年 12 月發布了 2026 年第四季度黃金看漲價為每盎司 4,800 美元,理由是持續加息將被美元疲軟所吸收,目前結算價與該數字的距離為 23.82%,而之前的截止點為 22.94%。 此頁面上的每個機構目標在周五都變得更加遙遠,並且沒有一個被修改,這是發布目標表中可能發生的最糟糕的事情。
- 高盛,2026 年 12 月基本情境(2025 年 12 月展望)4,900+26.39%這是表格上最古老、最激進的數字,也是市場距離最遠的數字。 2026 年 12 月的基本假設為每盎司 4,900 美元,存在上行風險,央行購買假設已從 25.50% 擴大到 26.40%。 值得保留的部分是假設,而不是數字:需求假設是央行,週五央行的資金流並沒有停止。
- 摩根大通金屬團隊,2026 年底(2025 年 12 月展望)5,055+30.39%表上最樂觀的公佈目標附帶最具體的需求假設,而該假設是值得保留的部分。 摩根大通的金屬團隊預計 2026 年底金價為每盎司 5,055 美元,目前比結算價高出 30.39%,而先前的截止價為 29.47%。 距離 30% 的目標並不描述預測,它描述的是找到最後買家的實際買家的水平,即使這不是交易,這也是真實的事情。
- 國聯期貨,2026年高點(2025年12月展望)5,000+28.97%預計今年將創高點並命名高點的房屋比預計今年收高的房屋更有用,而且該房屋還命名了其未預期的機制。 國聯期貨認為,今年高點將會出現,並將其定為 5,000 美元,目前比結算價高出 28.98%,而上次截止時的價格為 28.06%。 它自己的理由是,央行購買將是一種機制,而央行在 9 月連續二十三個月繼續購買。
每個百分比均根據 10 月 30 日紐約結算價 3,876.89 美元/盎司計算,該結算價來自該網站自己的官方每日金條和結構化報價文件,該文件是結算價而非實時打印,並且目標字符串按發佈時報價。作為範圍的目標在算術的中點處取,並且該範圍留在組織列中。 這些行彼此不一致,也沒有斷言中位數,因為消息來源在不同的日期和不同的參考價格下達到了目標,而它們之間的中位數將是一個沒有任何意義的數字。 本版本中的第一行改變了符號,這是表格中最有用的數字。 在上一版本的截止點 3,904.38 處,新華財經分析師的年終範圍為 3,900 至4,025 位於金屬下方;在結算時,它位於其上方,這意味著本報告表格中唯一公佈的底部已被清除,並且沒有低於該金屬的公佈水平可供依靠。
第 05 章
黃金價格跌破本頁唯一公佈的水平(曾經是底部),並且在沒有一個小時盤整的情況下就達到了 4,000、3,970 和 3,900 點。
3,869.30是周五交易時段的四個公佈口徑中最低的低點,3,872.99是該網站自己的五分鐘系列的最低點,4,000點被清倉,而日收盤價沒有高於該點,歐洲下午觸及3,970點,紐約時段現在只有1.900點觸及,10292029日是參考
本系列的最後一篇讀物描述了一個上方有破碎的整數且下方沒有公佈的下限的市場。週五結算後,破發輪數已從一級變為三級,公佈的樓層也從稀缺變為缺席。單日衝出三級,沒有一個能長期守住:4,000,最後一次在亞洲午後印於 4,003.13,再也沒有被重訪; 3,970,於歐洲下午 3,967.03 拍攝,從未收回;北京時段紐約時段報3,900,3,89.99小時報1992小時,又金價,又1999小時。收盤價為 3,876.89 美元,低於新華財經分析師公佈的 3,900 至 4,025 年末區間,這意味著本報告目標表中唯一公佈的水平現在位於上方而非下方,並且收盤價比當日四個公佈口徑中的最低價(Kitco 自己的記錄為 3,869.35 美元)。 上海晚間交易時段也出現了同樣的走低走勢以當地貨幣計,黃金T+D報每克831.10元,上海期貨交易所主力合約報831.68元,均在本版早前數據公佈後收盤。 下週報告所有這些內容時,控制的一個機械項目是時鐘:美國夏令時將於今晚(11 月 1 日星期日)結束,因此從明天起,每次東部時間 08:30 的發布都會從北京時間 20:30 移至 21:30,本報告自己的截止時間也是如此。
數據
| 類型 | 價位 | 依據與含義 |
|---|---|---|
| 強阻力 | 3,900 / 3,936 / 4,000 | 三個數字,都是星期五印出來的,而且沒有一個是桌面發明的整數。 第一個是 3,900,五分鐘的系列在 10 月 30 日北京 22:24 打印出低於 0.01 的價格,然後隨著金價又下跌 27 美元而保持不變;現在它是上方阻力位,而不是上一版本描述的支撐位。第二個是 3,936.21,是北京時間 21:33 紐約現貨交易時段的第一個價格,它很重要,因為它是美國交易時段開始損失的部分的價格。第三個是4000,每日收盤價均未高於該價位,最後印製於北京時間30日13點43分,報4003.13。 10 月 29 日的結算價為 4,021.28,位於所有三者之上,並且是早期版本用作 2.91% 下跌參考的數字;現在的管理費用為 144.39 美元。 |
| 中樞 | 3,873 / 3,877 / 3,936 | 區間是爭論的價格,而不是預測。 北京時間 04:48,週五五分鐘系列的最低價為 3,872.99,官方每日柱線為 3,872.24,結構化報價文件的滾動窗口為 3,870.20,Kitco 自己的記錄為 3,869.30,這是四個來自網站中最低的,也是唯一一個來自網站中的唯一一個來源。結算價為 3,876.89 美元,較該網站系列低點低 3.90 美元,較公佈的最低價低 7.59 美元,紐約時段開盤價為 3,936.21 美元。 四個口徑的一交易日低一結算是這一行的誠實寫法,它們之間的價差仍然小於當日開盤和收盤之間的價差。 在本版早先的讀數之後,上海晚盤於 10 月 31 日北京時間 02:30 收盤,以本幣計算也出現同樣的走低:黃金 T+D 報每克 831.10 元,下跌3.11%,黃金Au99.99報833.00元,下跌2.55%,上海期貨交易所黃金主力合約報831.68元,下跌3.51%。 |
| 強支撐 | 3,870 / 3,869 / 3,800 | 3,870 現在是一個已形成的水平,而不是一個被防守的水平,這是自上次閱讀本系列以來該表最重要的變化。 北京 10 月 31 日 04:48,五分鐘的系列報道為 3,872.99,官方每日柱線為 3,872.24,滾動報價文件為 3,870.20,Kitco 的記錄為3,869.30,所以3,870是所有四個位置的口徑其下方的 3,800 點是該金屬自 10 月 29 日結算以來未曾交易過的一輪參考點,也是周五公佈的技術觀點中稱為下一個測試的水平;它在這裡作為一個觀看級別而不是作為發布的樓層發布,因為命名它的房子發布了一個級別而不是預測。 該金屬下方也沒有公佈的機構目標,因為新華社財經分析師的年終區間 3,900 至 4,025 點在周五被清除,現在位於該區間之上。 這就是周五與今年其他交易日之間的結構性差異:該表下方的底部曾經是某人的預測,現在不再是任何人的預測。 |
| T+D 支撐 | Nov 1 OPEC+ / Nov 2 ISM + Caixin / Nov 3 Midterms / Nov 4 Refunding / Nov 6 Payrolls | 11 月 5 日星期四,英國央行、挪威央行、加拿大中央銀行和墨西哥央行都計劃公佈首次索賠和挑戰者號裁員數據。 11 月 6 日星期五,10 月就業報告預計將達成共識,人數約為 55,000 人,之前為 29,000 人,此外還有加拿大就業情況、密西根大學情緒調查以及來自 Logan、Williams、Musalem 和 Bowman 的美聯儲發言人。 一項機械變更適用於所有這些人:美國夏令時將於今晚(11 月 1 日星期日)結束,因此每次東部時間 08:30 發布的時間從 20:30 移至 20:30。明天21:30北京,本報告自己的截止時間也隨之移動。 |
- 1週一 - 亞洲開市,以及追加保證金是單日事件還是機制金價收在 3,876.89 美元,較四個已公佈交易日低點的最低價低 7.59 美元,此前一個交易日包裝商增持了 0.57 噸合約,期貨訂單增加了 1,356 份合約,美元下跌 0.16%。 本版現在可以提出而一小時前無法提出的問題是,每條黃金流量呈綠色時下跌 3.6% 是否是一個倉位反轉事件,或者第一份沒有公佈下限的走勢報告,因為唯一公佈的低於金屬的水平已經被清除,現金需求完全來自金屬之外。 週末根本沒有公佈任何報告,所以第一個觀察是周一的亞洲開盤。 解決問題的條件是亞洲開盤價週一保持在 3,900 上方,美元仍接近 101.878;亞洲突破 3,870 點將表明流量數據遲到而不是錯誤,週一交易中比特幣保持在六週低點附近而金屬反彈則表明保證金通道已關閉。
- 2週一 - 全球資金流量報告將說明 0.57 噸是一天還是一周世界黃金協會的每週資金流向發布是本系列核心數據集中的下一個數字,週五給了它一份奇怪的工作。 上一期報導稱,截至 10 月 23 日的一周結束了連續 13 週的全球資金流入,其中美國淨流出 17 億美元,淨流出 12.1 億美元。 上週五金價下跌 3.6%,SPDR Gold Trust 仍增持 0.57 噸,因此截至 10 月 30 日當週的流量釋放必須將價格的紅色週與包裝中的綠色週相協調,而根據 Wind 的數據,在中國,同一周 20 家上市黃金基金流出了 13.71 億元人民幣。 改變本報告架構的條件是全球綜合體和美國包裝價格變動的一週。相反的方向,因為這是前一版本出錯的相同替換的簽名,這意味著需要觀察的變數是複合體而不是包裝器。
- 3週末——發生的四件事沒有價格來定價在美國東部時間週五 16:00 收盤和本期截止之間,有四項進展,但沒有一份報告,而周一的開盤價同時出現了四項。 第一個是幣安創紀錄的盜竊案,大約 63 億美元,始於週四紐約收盤後,清算了約 13 億美元的槓桿加密貨幣頭寸,並將比特幣帶到了 76,400 美元附近的六週低點。第二個是霍爾木茲海峽,革命衛隊海軍週六下午宣布,第五艘油輪在東部禁區觸雷並起火,英國海事貿易行動部又發布了兩份通知,一份是關於一艘在拉萬島以南約四十海裡處的船隻被不明彈丸擊中的,另一份是關於一艘油輪在離開海峽時被擊中的。第三個是據報道但未經證實的美國準備最早在11月4日,即中期選舉後的第二天對伊朗發動打擊,國務卿表示尚未決定,而伊朗外長表示,海峽重新開放計劃已從7天縮短為兩天。第四是石油市場本身,週五布倫特12月合約到期結算價為117.64美元,仍在交易的1月合約收於113.43美元,差距為4.21美元,這是一個日曆,而不是崩潰,而運輸石油的成本比石油上漲得更遠:據報道,中東至中國的超大型原油船定期租船費率為每天105,050,5005,050一年前,海峽過境的戰爭保險保額為船體價值的 7.5% 至 10%,而危機前為 0.2%。 改變本報告框架的條件是周一開盤,忽略所有四個,因為這意味著市場正在交易最後一份報告,而不是週末。
- 4下週——11月3日的中期選舉,11月6日的就業報告,以及令他們都感動的時鐘變化本報告的下一個版本將圍繞四個過時的事情構建,但它們都不是價格。 第一個是 11 月 3 日的美國中期選舉,其公佈的定價足夠接近,足以成為一個立場而不是一個問題:9 月底的預測市場定價顯示民主黨眾議院的得票率約為 91.5%,民主黨參議院的得票率約為 63%,而專業預測者的另一項民意調查顯示眾議院支持率為 220 個民主黨席位對 205 個共和黨席位尚未決定眾議院。第二份報告是 11 月 6 日公佈的 10 月就業報告,一致同意人數約為 55,000 人,此前為 29,000 人,這是自委員會持鷹派立場以來第一份勞動力市場報告。第三個是美國財政部11月4日公佈的季度退款公告,這是唯一可以自行推動曲線長端的日曆項目。第四份是 11 月 4 日發布的 10 月 30 日商品期貨報告,這是該報告一直在等待的清算在已經到達加密貨幣之後是否到達金屬的第一次艱難考驗。時鐘今晚移動:美國夏令時於 11 月 1 日(星期日)結束,因此從明天起,每次東部時間 08:30 發布的時間都會從北京時間 20:30 移至 21:30,而 12 月 8 日至 9 日的會議將在一周內舉行,其發布現在會晚一個小時。
- 5密切關注-將改變本報告框架的四個數字四個數字,每個數字都會改變讀數,因為沒有條件的觀察清單就是希望清單。 首先,10月30日收盤曲線上的十年期國債收益率為4.94%,而10月29日為4.98%,實際十年期國債收益率為2.60%,而10月29日為2.63%:如果實際收益率持續下降,金屬持續下跌,貼現率就不是機制,本報告應該停止伸手去拿它。其次,美元指數為 101.878 兌 102.037:如果美元從這裡堅挺並且金屬也隨之堅挺,那麼週五是異常情況,而不是規則。第三,10月27日報告中的管理資金淨多頭為105,562份合約,本週增加1,356份合約:如果11月4日到期的10月30日報告顯示減少了一萬多份合約,那麼清算是遲到的,而不是沒有。第四,SPDR 黃金信託在 10 月 30 日增加 0.57 噸後達到 1,041.653 噸:如果下一次每日印刷是減少,那麼包裝商的出價將是一日事件,並且本報告中的流量論點減弱。
- 6聯準會名單-四名有記錄的官員,兩名沒有記錄的持不同政見者,以及記錄現在的內容週五的聯準會講話名單產生了四項可用的聲明和一項空白,並且該空白被命名而不是填補。 這位聖路易總統表示,很快就需要進一步收緊政策。達拉斯總統表示,至少兩次升息 25 個基點,聯邦基金利率目標範圍至少比限制水準低 50 個基點。里士滿總統表示,前進的方向很簡單,問題是步伐,並補充說人工智慧資本支出正在成為需求方通膨的一個來源。這位舊金山總統談到了人工智慧,但沒有提及利率路徑。 庫克州長和哈馬克總統這兩位反對 10 月 28 日加息的人被列出來解釋他們的投票,但兩人的言論都沒有得到證實,因此這裡對他們的言論沒有任何斷言。 週末沒有美聯儲官員發表講話,窗口內唯一的新美聯儲項目是主席宣布更改會議日曆,八次年度會議之一成為戰略討論,從 2027 年秋季開始不進行利率投票。改變本報告框架的條件是 12 月的定價高於 80%,因為市場在 72.4% 的情況下告訴本報告,政策路徑已定價,而問題出在其他地方。
- 7股票綜合體和加密貨幣綜合體—週五唯一可能出現拋售的地方金礦股的跌幅大約是金條價格的兩倍,這個比率就是整體的結果。 VanEck金礦商交易所交易基金下跌5.91%,KraneShares金礦商基金下跌6.81%,iShares全球礦商基金下跌5.65%,Harmony Gold下跌8.14%,而金礦基金下跌3.47%和3.51%。 當礦商價格下跌兩倍於金屬時,拋售是保證金事件和風險事件,而不是對黃金看法的改變,而且這種情況發生在股票中,因為股票帶有槓桿。 週末在一個週末不交易的市場上也顯示了相同的機制。幣安被盜後,大約 13 億美元的槓桿加密貨幣頭寸被清算,比特幣跌至 76,400 美元附近的六週低點,以太坊跌至兩個月低點,而且攻擊是在周四收盤後開始的,因此是在股票清算之前而不是之後。改變本報告解讀的條件是週一交易時段,礦商再次表現不佳,而黃金交易所交易基金持有,因為這將確認股票管道作為整個機制,而金銀基金跟隨礦商下跌的交易時段將意味著股票管道已經觸及金屬本身。
- 8網站自己的日曆中沒有包含的內容 - 11 月 1 日至 6 日的時間表,從網站外部構建並如此標記該網站自己的結構化日曆停止在已經運行的事件上,因此本報告中的未來一周是根據已發布的第三方日曆匯總的,並在此處進行了標記。 11 月 1 日星期日,七家主要生產商在將 11 月產量保持在 9 月水準後召開會議,確定 12 月產量。 11 月 2 日星期一,美國製造業狀況預計公佈,市場共識值為 54.7,財新私人製造業調查也將到期; 中國官方 10 月指數已於北京 10 月 31 日星期六 09:30 發布,製造業指數為 49.3%,而之前為 50.1%,該草稿將於週一公佈了同一草稿。 11 月 3 日星期二,美國中期選舉將舉行,預計將發布職缺數據和澳洲儲備銀行的決定。11 月 4 日星期三,ADP 就業報告定於 75,000 點和 65,000 點,之前為 90,000 點,同時還將公佈服務業調查、美國財政部季度退款公告、歐元區通膨、日本央行會議紀要以及瑞典央行、波蘭國家銀行和巴西央行的決定。 11 月 5 日星期四,英國央行、挪威央行、波蘭中央銀行和墨西哥央行均計劃公佈首次索賠和挑戰者號裁員數據。 11 月 6 日星期五,10 月就業報告預計將由約 55,000 人達成共識,此前為 29,000 人,此外還有加拿大就業情況、密西根大學情緒調查以及來自洛根、威廉姆斯、穆薩勒姆和鮑曼的美聯儲發言人。
LIN 的黃金週記
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資料來源 · 178›
- 1Reuters, October 29, 2026: third-quarter advance real gross domestic product consensus of 3.2 percent annualised against 2.2 percent in the second quarter, as reported in the site's own flash package
- 2The Paper citing Wind and Xinhua, October 30: spot gold fell 1.11 percent to 4,021.28 dollars an ounce and COMEX December 2026 gold futures fell 0.45 percent to 4,033.30 dollars an ounce on October 29
- 3Xinhua via China Financial Information Network, October 30, 2026: the most active December 2026 COMEX gold contract fell 18.30 dollars to 4,033.30 dollars, a 0.45 percent decline, with December silver at 52.220 dollars, down 2.69 percent
- 4Xinhua via The Paper, October 30, 2026: the dollar index fell 0.17 percent to 102.037 at the New York close, with the euro at 1.1162, sterling at 1.3361, the yen at 157.96, the Swiss franc at 0.8264, the Canadian dollar at 1.3986 and the Swedish krona at 9.8608
- 5Xinhua via The Paper, October 30: New York stock indices on October 29 closed with the Dow at 52,342.56 down 0.25 percent, the S&P 500 at 7,720.39 down 0.30 percent and the Nasdaq at 26,184.72 down 1.38 percent
- 6Xinhua via The Paper, October 30: the December WTI contract settled 78 cents lower at 102.00 dollars a barrel and December Brent settled 44 cents lower at 114.88 dollars a barrel
- 7CCTV and Eurostat via Tencent News and stcn.com, October 30, 2026: euro area third-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.4 percent quarter on quarter and 1.3 percent year on year in the flash estimate, with Ireland up 5.5 percent, Lithuania down 1.0 percent and France down 0.1 percent
- 8Daily Economic News, October 30, 2026: spot gold closed October 29 at 4,021.30 dollars an ounce, down 1.16 percent, and State Street Global Advisors maintained its first-quarter 2027 band at 4,750 to 5,500 dollars while cutting the probability of that scenario from 70 to 60 percent
- 9International Finance News, October 30, 2026: October 29 equity closes including the DAX at 26,039.68 up 1.31 percent, the CAC 40 at 7,970.00 up 1.05 percent, the FTSE 100 at 10,722.07 up 0.26 percent, the Shanghai Composite at 3,651.43 down 0.82 percent, the Shenzhen Component at 11,138.20 down 2.92 percent, the ChiNext at 2,517.59 down 4.45 percent and the Nikkei at 64,659.47 up 1.10 percent
- 10International Finance News, October 30: Shanghai Gold Exchange gold Au99.99 at 860.10 yuan a gram, down 0.60 percent, gold T+D at 859.10 yuan, down 0.90 percent, and the Shanghai main contract at 860.70 yuan, down 1.02 percent
- 11Kitco News citing Heraeus, October 19, 2026: Bloomberg-tracked gold exchange-traded fund holdings reached a 2026 peak of 101.3 million ounces on October 8, up 5.3 percent from the 96.2 million ounce July 20 low
- 12Kitco News citing Heraeus, October 19: the National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to cut gold from about 78 percent to 75 percent of international reserves by year end after holdings climbed to 386 tonnes
- 13Kitco, October 30, 2026: a commentary headline published on the same day arguing that a drop below 4,000 dollars should not be feared because the bull market is not broken, and a separate report that precious metals traders are preparing to defend 4,000 dollars gold while a break of 60 dollars in silver would be catastrophic
- 14Heraeus precious metals analysts via Kitco, October 19, 2026: India confirmed that bank and nominated agency imports of silver, gold and platinum are subject to 3 percent integrated goods and services tax, which banks have in practice been paying since April while the market waits for a decision on the import duty regime
- 15Datastreet and Summa Money citing the World Gold Council, October 26, 2026: for the week ended October 23 gold funds redeemed 3.01 billion dollars against 1.80 billion of subscriptions, ending thirteen consecutive weeks of inflow, with the United States leading redemptions at 1.7 billion dollars
- 16Datastreet and Summa Money citing the World Gold Council, October 26: the United Kingdom took in 321.8 million dollars, Switzerland 64.3 million, Germany 45.8 million and China 21.4 million, with year-to-date Chinese inflows of 10.43 billion dollars and United Kingdom inflows of 10.22 billion
- 17Informist citing the World Gold Council, October 19, 2026: gold funds took in 1.90 billion dollars in the week ended October 16 against 627.6 million the week before, with North America at 1.01 billion, Asia at 652.9 million and Europe at 242.5 million, and holdings up 13.7 tonnes to 4,278.9 tonnes
- 18Informist citing the World Gold Council, October 12, 2026: North America was in net outflow of 111.2 million dollars in the week ended October 9 while Asia took in 376 million and Europe 370 million, with holdings at 4,265 tonnes
- 19Crux Investor, positions dated October 20: managed-money net long gold fell from 345.5 tonnes on October 13 to 338.1 tonnes on October 20, and the Council's provisional estimates put North America at 13.1 tonnes of outflow against 4.3 tonnes of European inflow
- 20LBMA, week ended October 23: the afternoon gold benchmark fell 4.2 percent to about 4,013 dollars an ounce in a week in which the metal lost its worst performance since June
- 21Crux Investor, week ended October 23: global gold funds took in 10 billion dollars in September and a record 31 billion dollars in the third quarter
- 22World Gold Council, September 9, 2026: global physically backed gold funds attracted 18 billion dollars in August, the second largest monthly inflow on record, lifting holdings 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes and assets under management 16 percent to 615 billion dollars
- 23World Gold Council, August 11: the July 2026 report showing global gold funds added 3 billion dollars with holdings up 23 tonnes to 4,068 tonnes, Asian-listed funds supplying 616 million dollars and North America returning to inflow territory for the first time since spring
- 24China Energy Net and Qilu Evening News, December 24, 2025: Morgan Stanley's fourth-quarter 2026 gold call of 4,800 dollars an ounce, JPMorgan's end-2026 call of 5,055 dollars and Goldman's December 2026 base case of 4,900 dollars with upside risk
- 25China Energy Net and Qilu Evening News, December 25, 2025: Guolian Futures expected a 2026 gold high around 5,000 dollars an ounce, argued the November midterm election would constrain geopolitical volatility and weaken gold's safe-haven demand, and saw the metal holding up well without repeating 2025's pace
- 26NetEase citing Daily Economic News, October 30, 2026: China Gold closed at 19.23 yuan, down 3.32 percent and on its low for the day, Western Gold fell 3.06 percent, Chow Tai Seng rose 0.96 percent, Lao Feng Xiang rose 0.68 percent and Zijin Mining rose 0.32 percent, while China Chengxin became the seventh largest shareholder of China Gold with 37.10 million shares or 0.77 percent
- 27Federal Reserve, October 28, 2026: the Federal Open Market Committee statement, published as monetary20261028a, holding the federal funds target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, as recorded in the site's own central bank feed with the October 28 publication stamp
- 28Federal Reserve, October 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Board announcement approving the application by The Bank of Nova Scotia, as recorded in the site's own central bank feed
- 29European Central Bank, October 29, 2026: monetary policy decisions keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.50 percent, published as ecb.mp261029
- 30European Central Bank, October 29, 2026: the monetary policy statement and question-and-answer with Christine Lagarde and Boris Vujcic, published as ecb.is261029
- 31European Central Bank, October 29, 2026: the announcement that President Christine Lagarde will step down on February 7, 2027, published as ecb.pr261029
- 32European Central Bank, October 30, 2026: the results of the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026, published as ecb.pr261030
- 33Bank of England, October 29, 2026: minutes of the Court of Directors meeting held on September 17, 2026, and the same day's statement on the approach to tokenised collateral in central clearing
- 34Bank of Japan, October 30, 2026: the statement on monetary policy and the outlook report, together with the timetable of United States dollar funds-supplying operations for November 2026 to March 2027 and the quarterly schedule of outright Japanese government bond purchases
- 35US Treasury, October 29, 2026: the daily par yield curve and the daily par real yield curve, with the ten-year at 4.98 percent and 2.63 percent real, the thirty-year at 5.32 percent and the two-year at 4.61 percent
- 36US Treasury, October 28, 2026: the previous day's par curve and real curve, with the ten-year at 5.05 percent and 2.67 percent real, the thirty-year at 5.37 percent and the two-year at 4.67 percent
- 37Commodity Futures Trading Commission, October 23, 2026: the disaggregated report for positions dated October 20, managed money net long at 104,206 hands, down 2,883 on the week, with open interest at 402,279, managed money long at 120,970 and managed money short at 16,764
- 38World Gold Council, October 26, 2026: the weekly gold exchange-traded fund flow report for the week ended October 23, the basis of the flow correction named in this edition
- 39SPDR Gold Shares, October 30, 2026: daily holdings of 1,041.083 tonnes after a fall of 2.28 tonnes on the session, against 1,041.65 tonnes on October 23
- 40CME FedWatch tool via the site's own flash package, October 30, 2026: readings at 20:56 Beijing on October 29, 06:02 Beijing on October 30 and 08:57 Beijing on October 30, the December at-least-one-hike price at 81.3 percent, then 74.9 percent for a quarter point hike against 25.1 percent for no change, then about 70 percent
- 41US Bureau of Economic Analysis via the site's own flash package, October 29, 2026 at 08:30 ET: the third-quarter advance real gross domestic product and the September personal consumption expenditure price index releases
- 42US Department of Labor via the site's own flash package, October 29, 2026 at 08:30 ET: weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance at 194,000 for the week ended October 24
- 43World Gold Council, September 9: the September 2026 gold market commentary and the ETF flow and holdings dataset behind the record third-quarter 31 billion dollar inflow
- 44International Monetary Fund, October 29: a statement fully supporting Chair Warsh's focus on price stability and noting that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are acting in a highly uncertain environment
- 45World Bank, October 29, 2026: a forecast of a 23 percent rise in commodity prices in 2026 with global oil supply down 5.2 percent
- 46Eurostat, October 30, 2026: the flash estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product for the euro area and the European Union
- 47Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026: the decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50 percent
- 48Reserve Bank of New Zealand, October 28, 2026: the decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.75 percent, which the market had priced as a near-certain rise
- 49LSEG, October 29, 2026: market pricing of a 44 percent probability of a further Bank of Canada hike in December, as reported in the site's own flash package
- 50Site structured quote file, October 30, 2026 at 22:36 Beijing: spot gold 3,904.38 with a session range of 3,891.64 to 4,028.46, silver 49.092, platinum 1,428.49, palladium 981.74, oil 112.98, EUR/USD 1.11407, GBP/USD 1.33827 and USD/JPY 157.171, and the same file at 19:02 Beijing carried spot gold 3,979.31 with a session low of 3,965.18, silver 50.507, platinum 1,442.21, EUR/USD 1.12005, GBP/USD 1.34289 and USD/JPY 157.274
- 51Site structured quote file, October 30, 2026: a rolling reference close of 4,021.23 for spot gold at 22:36 Beijing, 4,021.22 at 18:53, 4,021.16 at 17:43 and 4,021.13 at 19:02, recomputed on each poll rather than a settlement
- 52Site five-minute gold series, October 30, 2026 from 00:19 to 22:36 Beijing: 253 prints with a high of 4,028.21 at 04:13, a low of 3,899.99 at 22:24, the first print below 4,000 at 3,999.81 at 09:09 Beijing with the last print above it at 4,003.13 at 13:43, and the first print of the New York session at 3,936.21 at 21:33 Beijing
- 53Site radar package, October 30, 2026 at 17:43 Beijing: gold 3,989.39 with a reference close of 4,021.157, a session high of 4,028.46 and a session low of 3,965.18, and 40 flash items and 15 calendar entries with no collection errors
- 54Site radar package, October 30, 2026 at 09:22 Beijing: gold 4,003.26 with a reference close of 4,021.356, and the October 29 Treasury yields of 4.98 percent nominal and 2.63 percent real
- 55Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 06:23 Beijing: the SPDR Gold Trust gave up 2.28 tonnes to 1,041.083 tonnes, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D opened the Friday session down 1.02 percent at 858.10 yuan a gram
- 56Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 06:02 and 08:57 Beijing: the CME FedWatch composite priced a 25 basis point December hike at 74.9 percent and 25.1 percent for no change at 06:02, and an at-least-one-hike price of about 70 percent at 08:57
- 57Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 20:56 Beijing: the CME FedWatch composite priced a 25 basis point December hike at 81.3 percent and 18.7 percent for no change immediately after the price index release
- 58Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 20:59 Beijing: the third-quarter growth print at 3.4 percent against a 3.2 percent expectation, the core price index at 0.3 percent on the month and 3.1 percent on the year, and the third-quarter real personal consumption expenditure at 3.8 percent
- 59Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 20:58 Beijing: weekly jobless claims at 194,000 against 198,000 expected, the sixth consecutive week under 200,000 and the longest run since January 2023
- 60Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 15:28 Beijing: the Federal Reserve held at 3.75 to 4.00 percent with Hammack and Cook preferring a 25 basis point increase, the statement describing the economy as strong and emphasising the need for more information, and Chair Warsh saying financial conditions have tightened without calling them tight
- 61Site flash package, October 29, 2026 at 21:29 Beijing: the European Central Bank held its key rate at 2.50 percent on October 29, with French debt concerns overtaking inflation worries
- 62Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 16:27 Beijing: the Bank of Japan held at 1.25 percent on an 8 to 1 vote with Takata dissenting for 1.5 percent, accelerated exchange-traded fund sales to 860 billion yen a year, and lifted next year's core inflation forecast from 2.4 to 2.6 percent
- 63Site flash package, October 30, 2026 at 15:31 Beijing: the United States third-quarter growth at 3.4 percent above expectations, and the White House National Economic Council director saying a high October inflation print could prompt Federal Reserve action
- 64Site calendar package, October 30, 2026: Japan's September unemployment at 2.4 percent against 2.5 expected, France's third-quarter growth at minus 0.1 percent against 0.3 expected, French October consumer prices at 0.4 percent against 0.2 expected, German unemployment at 6.4 percent on 0.4 million, German third-quarter growth at 1.3 percent against 1.2 expected, and the Canadian August growth and United States third-quarter employment cost index still unpublished at 20:30 Beijing
- 65Site global yields asset, October 30, 2026: the end-of-day par curve for October 29 with the two-year at 4.61, the ten-year at 4.98, the thirty-year at 5.32 and the ten-year real yield at 2.63 percent, against the October 28 set at 4.67, 5.05, 5.37 and 2.67
- 66Site global positioning asset, October 30, 2026: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission snapshot for the October 20 report date with managed money net long at 104,206 hands, down 2,883, and open interest at 402,279
- 67Jin10 Data, October 29 and 30, 2026: the flash timeline of the Federal Reserve decision, the growth and price index releases, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan decisions and the gold and dollar path, used as the site's own structured record of intraday timestamps
- 68Caixin Ledger, October 29, 2026: the ten-year Treasury yield falling 6 basis points to 4.984 percent on a market-close caliber
- 69China Securities Journal, October 29, 2026: the New York closing currency set with the dollar index at 102.037 and the Canadian dollar at 1.3986, republished from Xinhua
- 70Gold Price Network, October 29, 2026: the October 29 spot session range of 4,015.85 to 4,068.72 with a previous close of 4,067.16, and the COMEX December contract on a 4,031.05 or minus 0.51 percent caliber against a 4,051.60 previous close
- 71Summa Money and Datastreet, October 26, 2026: the World Gold Council weekly flow data with the quotes from Augmont's research chief on the worst week since June and from the India Bullion and Jewellers Association on staggered buying ahead of the October 28 decision
- 72Shenzhen Securities Times, October 30, 2026: the euro area and European Union third-quarter growth figures with the second-quarter comparators of 0.6 and 0.7 percent quarter on quarter
- 73Reuters, October 30: US third-quarter employment cost index rose 0.8 percent on the quarter, in line with expectations and down from 0.9 percent, with wages up 0.7 percent and benefits up 0.9 percent, and labor costs up 3.4 percent over the twelve months to September
- 74Reuters, October 30: gold slipped as higher oil prices and firm US inflation data bolstered Fed hike bets, with spot gold down 0.6 percent at 3,997.39 dollars an ounce at 0255 GMT and December futures at 4,007.80, with traders pricing about a 75 percent chance of a December hike
- 75Reuters, October 30: Canada GDP unchanged for a second straight month in August against a 0.2 percent expectation, with September indicated to fall 0.1 percent and third-quarter annualized industry growth at 1.3 percent, and the Canadian dollar up 0.26 percent at 1.3951 against the dollar
- 76Reuters, October 30: German inflation slowed more than expected in October to 2.8 percent year on year against a 3.1 percent forecast for the EU-harmonised measure and 3.3 percent in September, with core at 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent
- 77Reuters, October 30: the Bank of Japan held at 1.25 percent, the yen strengthened to 157.115 per dollar, and the dollar tracked Treasury yields lower as a fresh wave of AI share selling triggered a flight to safety
- 78Reuters, October 30: spot silver slid 2.1 percent to 51.27 dollars an ounce, platinum fell 1.9 percent to 1,458.85 and palladium lost 2 percent to 986.08, with all three heading for weekly and monthly losses
- 79Reuters, October 30: Brent was on course for a fourth monthly gain and the steepest since July on supply concerns after Houthi forces stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, with the Strait of Hormuz tanker attack highlighted
- 80MNI and the Chicago Institute for Supply Management, October 30: the Chicago manufacturing index dipped to 55.3 in October against a 56.0 consensus and 58.8 in September
- 81Reuters via Seeking Alpha, October 30: Intel shares sank more than 30 percent in morning trade after a third-quarter result and guidance that missed estimates, Amazon fell 2.4 percent, the S&P 500 was down 1.2 percent, the Nasdaq down 2.1 percent and the Dow down 0.4 percent, with the ten-year yield up a basis point to 4.95 percent, the two-year up 5 basis points to 4.63 percent and the thirty-year up a basis point to 5.31 percent
- 82Dow Jones Newswires via Morningstar, October 30: Canadian GDP was essentially unchanged at 2.372 trillion Canadian dollars in August against a 0.2 percent expected rise, up 1.5 percent on the year
- 83Xinhua Finance, October 30: the third-quarter US labor cost index was published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a 0.8 percent rise, below the 0.9 percent of the April to June period and in line with expectations
- 84Xinhua Finance, October 30: spot gold fell below 4,000 dollars an ounce in the Asian session and stood at 3,988.69 dollars at 14:35 Beijing, while the December COMEX contract was at 3,997.40 dollars, down 0.84 percent
- 85Xinhua Finance, October 30: the dollar index fell 0.17 percent to close the October 29 New York session at 102.037, with the euro at 1.1162, sterling at 1.3361, the yen at 157.96, the Swiss franc at 0.8264 and the Canadian dollar at 1.3986
- 86Xinhua Finance, October 30: the World Gold Council data published on October 26 showed global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds with 3.01 billion dollars of redemptions against 1.80 billion of subscriptions for the week to October 23, a 1.21 billion dollar net outflow that ended thirteen consecutive weeks of inflow, with the United States at 1.7 billion out and the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany and China in at 321.8 million, 64.3 million, 45.8 million and 21.4 million
- 87Xinhua Finance, October 30: the SPDR Gold Trust gave up 2.28 tonnes to 1,041.083 tonnes as of October 29, against 1,041.65 tonnes a week earlier
- 88Xinhua Finance, October 30: German third-quarter GDP grew 1.3 percent year on year and 0.2 percent quarter on quarter, while the euro area third-quarter GDP printed at 1.3 percent year on year against 1.1 percent expected
- 89Xinhua Finance, October 30: the Swiss National Bank reported a profit of 44.2 billion Swiss francs for the first nine months, of which 12 billion francs came from the valuation gain on its gold holdings
- 90Yicai Global via the China Economic Net, October 30: gold broke below 4,000 dollars an ounce in the Asian session, with the December COMEX contract at 3,997.40 dollars and the London spot price at 3,988.69 dollars at 14:35 Beijing
- 91Caijing Newswire via STCN, October 30: the Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for next year to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent and its growth outlook for this year to 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent, and accelerated exchange-traded fund sales to 860 billion yen a year
- 92China Securities Journal via STCN, October 30: three tankers hit mines and caught fire in the southern Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy, and Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil and civil aviation facilities
- 93CFi.cn, October 30: Brent December futures rose 1.04 percent to 116.08 dollars a barrel with the January contract at 112.19, and WTI rose 1.34 percent to 103.37, with Brent up close to 11 percent and WTI up 14 percent for the month
- 94Sina Finance Global Market, October 30: Brent traded up to 116.12 dollars and touched 117.84 intraday, the highest since late April, with WTI at 103.01, and the Central Command commander Brad Cooper briefed the president on military options against Iran
- 95Bank of China Financial News, October 30: Chinese domestic gold jewelry prices were mostly quoted at 1,199 to 1,205 yuan a gram, slightly lower than the previous day
- 96Shanghai Gold Exchange, October 30: the October 30 session was summarised as the gold T+D contract closing down 1.48 percent at 854.08 yuan a gram and the silver T+D contract down 6.3 percent at 12,038.0 yuan a kilogram
- 97Metals Focus, October 30: the gold to silver ratio rose above 76 for the first time since December 2025 against a 60 to 70 range through the summer, with London silver stocks at 932 million ounces and freely available stocks at about 267 million ounces, and CME pricing an 80 percent chance of a December Fed hike
- 98China Securities Times via the China Economic Net, October 30: the Bank of England survey of businesses found one-year ahead consumer price inflation expectations rising to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent in the September round
- 99Chicago Business Review via the Chinese Economic Net, October 30: the Swiss National Bank reported a 44.2 billion franc nine-month profit with a 12 billion franc valuation gain on gold holdings
- 100Cailian Press, October 30: CME FedWatch pricing at 06:02 Beijing showed a 25.1 percent probability of no change and 74.9 percent of a 25 basis point hike at the December 9 meeting, with a 17.1 percent probability of no change by January and 58.9 percent of a cumulative 25 basis point and 24.1 percent of a cumulative 50 basis point
- 101Cailian Press, October 30: German EU-harmonised consumer prices rose 2.8 percent year on year against a 3.1 percent estimate, published at 21:00 Beijing
- 102Reuters via the site's own flash at 22:16 Beijing on October 30: the dollar index closed the October 29 New York session at 102.037, down 0.17 percent, while a Chinese closing board carried the index at 101.8300 for October 30, down 0.28 percent
- 103Federal Reserve, October 28: the Federal Open Market Committee held the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on a 10 to 2 vote, with Governor Cook and President Hammack voting for a 25 basis point increase, and the statement describing economic activity as continuing to expand at a solid pace
- 104US Department of the Treasury, October 29: the end-of-day par yield curve put the two-year at 4.61 percent, the ten-year at 4.98 percent and the thirty-year at 5.32 percent, against 4.67, 5.05 and 5.37 on October 28, and the end-of-day real curve put the ten-year at 2.63 percent against 2.67
- 105CME Group, October 30: the FedWatch December 9 meeting pricing carried a 25 basis point hike at about 70 percent and no change at about 25 percent in the site's own composite at 08:57 Beijing, and the October 27 Commodity Futures Trading Commission report publishes at 15:30 ET on Friday October 30
- 106Investing.com economic calendar, October 30: the United States third-quarter employment cost index published at 08:30 ET against a 0.80 percent consensus and 0.90 percent previous, and the Chicago manufacturing survey published at 09:45 ET against a 54.80 percent consensus and 58.80 percent previous, with Fed President Daly at 12:00 ET, the Baker Hughes rig count at 13:00 ET, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission gold speculative net position at 15:30 ET and Dallas Fed personal consumption expenditure for September at 18:30 ET
- 107SITE - jin10 radar pm pack, October 30: the site's own structured quote file and the October 30 am and pm radar packages, giving spot gold at 3,904.38 dollars an ounce at 22:36 Beijing with a session range of 3,891.64 to 4,028.46, spot silver at 49.092, platinum at 1,428.49, palladium at 981.74, oil at 112.98, EUR/USD at 1.11407, GBP/USD at 1.33827 and USD/JPY at 157.171
- 108SITE - jin10 calendar, October 30: the October 30 economic calendar with the French third-quarter GDP at minus 0.1 percent against 0.3 expected, German third-quarter GDP at 1.3 percent against 1.2 expected, euro area third-quarter GDP at 1.3 percent against 1.1 expected, euro area September unemployment at 6.5 percent against 6.4 expected, French October consumer prices at 0.4 percent against 0.2 expected, Swiss October KOF at 107.6 against 108.3 expected, German October unemployment at 6.4 percent, and the Japanese October target rate held at 1.25 percent
- 109Reuters via Howard Schneider, October 30, 2026: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Sirius XM's Business Briefing that the direction of travel is pretty straightforward but the question is pace, that a gradual approach makes sense when the Fed is not much behind the curve, and that businesses face rising cost pressures they are increasingly willing to pass on
- 110Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: Barkin said the Fed had already signalled a gradual approach at its September meeting and that artificial-intelligence capital spending is acting as a source of demand-side inflation that monetary policy can suppress
- 111Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: at the New York close the ten-year Treasury yield traded at 4.9290 percent, down 5.90 basis points from the prior session's 15:00 reference, the two-year at 4.5810 percent, down 7.50 basis points and its lowest since the eleventh of last month, and the thirty-year at 5.3090 percent, down 1.90 basis points, with the ten-year to two-year spread widening from 33.20 to 34.80 basis points
- 112Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: the CME FedWatch tool priced a 72.4 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike by December and a 27.6 percent probability of no change, and the VIX rose 2.22 points to 19.42
- 113Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at an event at Davidson College that the Federal Open Market Committee should implement at least two 25 basis point rate hikes and that the federal funds rate target range is at least 50 basis points below the level where it could impose some moderate restraint
- 114Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told the Shadow Open Market Committee that additional tightening of monetary policy will be needed soon, that inflation is high and broad-based, and that monetary and financial conditions remain accommodative
- 115Yonhap Infomax, October 30, 2026: technology stocks fell 4.24 percent in the S&P 500 sector, SanDisk fell 13.47 percent, Reddit fell 29.27 percent and Coinbase fell 10.62 percent, while energy stocks rose more than 1 percent
- 116United States Department of the Treasury, October 30, 2026: the daily par yield curve rates for October 30 close with the two-year at 4.56 percent, the ten-year at 4.94 percent and the thirty-year at 5.31 percent, against 4.61, 4.98 and 5.32 percent on October 29
- 117United States Department of the Treasury, October 30, 2026: the daily real yield curve rates for October 30 close with the ten-year real yield at 2.60 percent against 2.63 percent on October 29, and the ten-year breakeven implied by the two curves narrows from 2.35 to 2.34 percent
- 118Commodity Futures Trading Commission, October 30, 2026: the Commitments of Traders report dated October 27 shows managed money in COMEX gold at 122,508 long contracts against 16,946 short contracts for a net long of 105,562 contracts, up 1,356 on the week, on open interest of 396,810
- 119Commodity Futures Trading Commission, October 30, 2026: the same October 27 report on the legacy futures-only basis shows a net long of 107,404 contracts, down 1,283 on the week, and on the legacy combined basis a net long of 186,451 contracts, down 13,414
- 120The SPDR Gold Trust daily holdings record, October 30, 2026: holdings of 1,041.653 tonnes on October 30, an increase of 0.57 tonnes, against 1,041.083 tonnes and a reduction of 2.28 tonnes on October 29 and 1,043.36 tonnes on October 28
- 121Yahoo Finance, October 30, 2026: the SPDR Gold Shares closed at 355.78 dollars, down 3.47 percent, on a 52-week low of 354.67, a previous close of 368.57, volume of 16.2 million shares against an average of 9.6 million, and net assets of 141.7 billion dollars
- 122Nasdaq closing levels, October 30, 2026: the S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07, down 1.82 percent on a 140.32 point fall, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,437.00, down 2.86 percent on a 747.73 point fall
- 123Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, October 30, 2026: President Mary Daly said artificial intelligence genuinely influences how the Federal Reserve thinks about near- and medium-term policy and bears on both price stability and maximum employment, and named no path for the December meeting
- 124Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 30, 2026: President Alberto Musalem said monetary policy is not positioned to lower inflation, that the third-quarter data confirmed the economy's underlying strength, and that further tightening will be needed soon
- 125Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, October 30, 2026: President Lorie Logan said the Federal Open Market Committee should implement at least two 25 basis point rate hikes and that a pause after 50 basis points would be reasonable to determine what further action is appropriate
- 126CME Group FedWatch tool, October 30, 2026: pricing for the December 9 meeting showed a 72.4 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike and a 27.6 percent probability of no change, and for January a 58.4 percent probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase, a 22.3 percent probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase and a 19.3 percent probability of no change
- 127COMEX via the CME Group settlement record, October 30, 2026: the December 2026 gold contract settled at 3,884.90 dollars per ounce, down 3.63 percent on the session and 3.07 percent on the week, and the December silver contract at 49.13 dollars, down 6.20 percent on the session and 8.92 percent on the week
- 128European Central Bank, October 30, 2026: the Governing Council held a meeting with no rate decision, the fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters was published expecting inflation to rise, and Executive Board member Kocher said the Bank must hike rates if the economic situation does not improve soon
- 129Bank of Japan, October 30, 2026: the central bank amended its exchange-traded fund disposal reference and Governor Ueda said core inflation has met the target
- 130Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange night session close, October 31, 2026: gold T+D settled at 831.10 yuan a gram, down 3.11 percent, gold Au99.99 at 833.00 yuan, down 2.55 percent, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold main contract at 831.68 yuan, down 3.51 percent
- 131Shanghai Futures Exchange, October 30, 2026: the gold main contract closed the day session at 855.18 yuan a gram, down 1.06 percent on the week
- 132Newswuawk, October 30, 2026: the day's Federal Reserve slate was Cook and Hammack at about 08:00 ET to explain their dissents, Barkin at 09:30 ET, Daly at 12:00 ET and Musalem at 12:30 ET, with Logan scheduled later in the afternoon
- 133BMO Capital Markets Precious Metals Monitor, October 30, 2026: global gold exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of 1.1 billion dollars in the week ended October 23 led by a 1.7 billion dollar withdrawal in the United States against 485 million dollars of European inflows, the Indian premium over international spot rose to 15 dollars an ounce, and speculators' net long positions in United States gold futures slipped to the lowest since August
- 134BMO Capital Markets Precious Metals Monitor, October 30, 2026: the People's Bank of China was a net buyer in September for the twenty-third consecutive month, lifting official reserves from 76.73 million ounces to 77.47 million ounces, while the Russian central bank sold six tonnes, a tenth consecutive month of sales and its lowest reserve since 2019, and Kazakhstan plans to cut gold's share of its foreign exchange reserves from 78 percent to 75 percent, about 14 tonnes
- 135Baker Hughes rig count, October 30, 2026: the North American rotary rig count stood at 462 oil rigs and 603 rigs in total, published at 01:00 Beijing on October 31
- 136新华社纽约10月30日电, 2026年10月31日: 美元指数当天下跌0.16%, 在汇市尾市收于101.878, 欧元1.1167、英镑1.3394、日元157.37、瑞郎0.8236、加元1.3956、瑞典克朗9.8170
- 137新华社 via 中国金融信息网, 2026年10月31日: 截至纽约汇市尾市, 1欧元兑换1.1167美元高于前一日的1.1162美元, 1英镑兑换1.3394美元高于前一日的1.3361美元, 1美元兑换157.37日元低于前一日的157.96日元
- 138证券时报网人民财讯, 2026年10月31日: 美元指数30日下跌0.16%, 汇市尾市收于101.878
- 139国际金融要情, 2026年10月31日: 现货黄金3875.55美元/盎司跌3.63%, COMEX黄金期货3884.90美元/盎司跌3.63%, 上金所黄金9999报833.00元/克跌2.55%, 黄金T+D报831.10元/克跌3.11%, 上期所沪金主连报831.68元/克跌3.51%, WTI原油104.10美元/桶涨2.08%, 布伦特原油113.40美元/桶涨2.37%
- 140国际金融要情, 2026年10月31日: 美元指数101.9500跌0.17%, 美国10年期国债收益率4.921%、30年期5.309%、20年期5.338%、5年期4.722%、1年期4.387%, 德国DAX30指数25818.21跌0.85%, 英国富时100指数10729.78涨0.07%, 法国CAC40指数7969.42跌0.01%, 日经225指数63290.11跌2.12%, 韩国KOSPI指数5730.74跌3.48%, 恒生指数23294.42涨1.46%
- 141中新经纬, 2026年10月31日: 美东时间周五美股三大股指全线收跌, 道指跌1.09%报51770.31点, 标普500跌1.82%报7580.07点, 纳指跌2.86%报25437点, 费城半导体指数跌7.2%, 英特尔跌逾28%, 闪迪跌超13%, 能源股多数上涨, 国际油价上涨, 纽约商品交易所12月交货轻质原油涨2.12美元收于104.12美元, 12月交货布伦特原油涨2.76美元收于117.64美元, COMEX黄金跌3.63%报3884.90美元/盎司本周累跌3.07%, COMEX白银跌6.20%报49.13美元/盎司本周累跌8.92%
- 142央视新闻客户端 via 央广网, 2026年10月31日: 纽约股市三大股指10月30日显著下跌, 道指下跌572.25点收于51770.31点跌幅1.09%, 标普500下跌140.32点收于7580.07点跌幅1.82%, 纳斯达克下跌747.73点收于25437.00点跌幅2.86%, 能源板块和必需消费品板块分别以1.91%和1.38%的涨幅领涨, 科技板块和工业板块分别以4.24%和1.57%的跌幅领跌
- 143央视新闻, 2026年10月31日: 当地时间10月30日晚, 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军宣布当天下午第四艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡违规航行时发生触雷爆炸并起火, 该油轮载有超过200万桶原油并无视卫队无线电警告试图驶离海峡南部未经授权航道, 这是自当天凌晨以来于霍尔木兹海峡起火的第四艘油轮
- 144央视新闻, 2026年10月31日: 当地时间10月30日, 英国海上贸易行动办公室通报伊朗拉万岛以南约40海里处一船舶遭不明抛射物击中起火, 船员确认安全, 暂无环境污染报告
- 145东方财富外汇频道, 2026年10月31日: 据CME最新一期美联储观察, 美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为28%, 加息25个基点的概率为72%, 到明年1月维持不变概率19.3%、累计加息25个基点58.4%、累计加息50个基点22.3%; 达拉斯联储洛根表示美联储至少还需加息两次每次25个基点, 圣路易斯联储穆萨莱姆表示有必要进一步收紧政策而且要尽快行动
- 146东方财富, 2026年10月31日: 昨夜今晨国际金价银价暴跌, 纽约金价下跌3.63%跌破3900美元/盎司, 纽约银价下跌6.20%跌破50美元/盎司为2025年11月以来首次, 个股方面Reddit跌29.28%、英特尔跌28.94%、Illumina跌18.64%、闪迪跌13.47%
- 147新浪财经全球最大黄金ETF基金SPDR持仓数据, 2026年10月31日: 2026年10月30日当前持仓1041.65吨持仓量增加0.57吨为利多, 10月29日1041.08吨减少2.28吨为利空, 10月28日1043.36吨增加1.71吨, 10月27日1041.65吨增加0.85吨
- 148同花顺财经上海中期期货一周策略, 2026年10月30日: 本周沪金主力合约收盘价855.18元/克跌幅1.06%, 沪银主力合约收盘价12093元/千克跌幅7.74%, 避险资金流向美债令贵金属承压
- 149期货日报, 2026年10月31日: 现货白银跌破50美元/盎司为2025年11月以来首次, 伦金下跌3.63%报3875.55美元/盎司
- 150Kitco price page, October 30, 2026: the New York spot close for gold at 17:00 ET with a bid of 3,874.40 and an ask of 3,876.40, a change of 146.10 dollars or 3.63 percent, a session low of 3,869.30 and a high of 4,027.30, a 30-day change of 281.70 dollars or 6.78 percent and a one-year change of 149.20 dollars or 3.71 percent, with silver at 49.00, platinum at 1,429.00 and palladium at 961.00
- 151Kitco News, October 30, 2026: spot gold fell to its lowest level since October 6, 2025, when the metal touched an intraday low of 3,884.61 dollars, and the analyst at GivTrade said the path of least resistance remains lower and that support would be tested at 3,800, with the metal roughly 13.5 percent below a 200-day moving average near 4,490 dollars
- 152Kitco News, October 30, 2026: the Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street bulls abandoning ship after gold sank below 3,900 dollars while Main Street maintained a narrow bullish majority bias, with the midterm elections and the employment report in view
- 153Kitco News, October 31, 2026: a commentary titled the frustrating paradox argued that falling yields and a weaker dollar cannot stop the selloff, which is the same reading this report reached from the site's own data on Friday
- 154Kitco News citing the analyst at StoneX Group, October 30, 2026: a longer and deeper correction lasting into 2027 before the tide turns, with the possibility of silver in the high thirties and gold as low as 3,000 dollars, which is a published scenario from a named house and not this report's view
- 155Kitco News citing Blue Line Futures and XS.com, October 30, 2026: the rule in the markets is that you are supposed to buy the inflation and oil right now is the inflation, and the decisive factor will be whether incoming data shift the rate path toward a pause or a resumption of cuts
- 156The National and ChinaTech News citing Reuters, October 31, 2026: about 6.3 billion dollars was stolen from Binance in the largest theft in the history of cryptocurrency, the exchange covered 90 percent of it from company funds, about three billion of assets were frozen on chain, withdrawals were due to resume on November 1 and bitcoin fell to a six-week low near 76,450 dollars
- 157Macro Herald citing CoinGecko, Chainalysis and TRM Labs, October 31, 2026: the theft began at 16:05 ET on Thursday October 29 after the United States market closed, leveraged bets worth about 1.3 billion dollars were liquidated, bitcoin was at 77,414 dollars at 01:02 GMT on October 31 near a 31-day low, and the funds were traced to a North Korean group
- 158Poyang Ledger via Toutiao, October 31, 2026: the coin theft detail, that attackers bypassed approval controls and used the EIP-7702 delegation standard to take execution rights on a hot wallet, with about three billion dollars of assets frozen on chain and no evidence of a private key compromise so far
- 159International Finance News, October 31, 2026: the Chinese official October purchasing managers' indices, with manufacturing at 49.3 percent against 50.1 percent before, the non-manufacturing index at 49.7 percent and the composite at 49.7 percent, the production index at 49.8 percent and new orders at 49.4 percent
- 160National Bureau of Statistics of China, October 31, 2026: the interpretation of the October 2026 China purchasing managers' index by the chief statistician, with high-technology manufacturing at 51.3 percent and equipment manufacturing at 50.6 percent, large enterprises at 50.2 percent against 48.4 percent for medium and 47.5 percent for small, the services business activity index at 50.0 percent and construction at 48.0 percent
- 161China Economic Net citing the Wind terminal, October 31, 2026: twenty listed gold exchange-traded funds took in 523 million yuan in the week to October 23 and gave up 1.371 billion yuan in the week to October 30, with their combined size down to 283.96 billion yuan from 297.91 billion yuan at the start of October
- 162证券时报网 and 央视新闻, November 1, 2026: the Iranian navy announced on October 31 that a tanker ignoring warnings struck a mine and caught fire in the eastern prohibited zone of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Revolutionary Guard said the United States president's remarks were untrue and that its control policy over the strait would not change
- 163齐鲁晚报 citing 央视总台, November 1, 2026: the Revolutionary Guard Navy said that fifteen vessels, four of them tankers, passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous twenty-four hours under its coordination and security escort
- 164航运界 citing United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, October 31, 2026: notices 188 and 189, one for a vessel struck by an unidentified projectile about forty nautical miles south of Lavan Island and caught fire and one for a tanker struck while leaving the strait as a delayed report, both with the crew safe and no pollution reported
- 165霍尔木兹海峡能源快报 citing 新华社, October 31, 2026: the last settlement was Friday October 30, with December WTI up 2.12 dollars at 104.12 and December Brent up 2.76 dollars at 117.64 with that contract expiring on the day, the still-traded January contract at 113.43, the Brent-WTI spread at 13.52 dollars, October Brent up 13.6 percent and WTI up 15.2 percent, and the explicit note that the weekend events have not entered any price
- 166航运界 and 参考消息 citing 波罗的海交易所, Clarksons Research, 达信 and 国际海事组织, October 31, 2026: the Middle East to China very large crude carrier time charter at 1,351,405 dollars a day against under 50,000 dollars a year ago, the Oman to China route up 19 percent on the week, about 15 percent of the world fleet of 925 ships idled near Oman, per-barrel freight near 30 dollars or 20 to 40 percent of the oil price, war risk cover at 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value and at least 34 confirmed vessel attacks in the strait since September 29
- 167小虎哥 via 今日头条, November 1, 2026: the seven major producers decided to hold the November output target at the September level for a second consecutive month, the November 1 meeting focuses on December production policy, and the ANZ year-end Brent target was raised from 95 to 105 dollars
- 168网易财经, November 1, 2026: Iran cut the Strait of Hormuz reopening plan from seven days to two and sent a delegation to Doha through the Qatari mediator, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council said the tone of the American letter had completely changed and called that a good sign, and the military leadership said a response would be immediate and not limited by geography
- 169财联社 via 霍尔木兹海峡能源快报, October 31, 2026: the United States has notified Gulf governments to prepare for military action against Iran as early as November 4, the day after the midterm election, according to market sources, with no scale or targets given and no official confirmation
- 170财联社 via 汇通网, October 31, 2026: the secretary of state said the president had not decided on military action against Iran and the president said the war would end soon
- 171VT Markets, November 1, 2026: the United States midterm election on November 3 contests all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, and the direction of gold will depend on the yield and dollar response rather than on the result itself, with the historical reference that the S&P 500 has averaged 6.5 percent over the three months after a midterm against 2.5 percent over the three months before
- 172Hong Kong Economic Times, November 1, 2026: prediction market pricing of a Democratic House at 85 percent with the Senate around 50 to 50, and the historical observation that equities tend to perform better after midterms while gold holds a supported range
- 173中国工商银行贵金属业务部, 2026 United States midterm election special report, October 2026: the base scenario of a Democratic House with a Republican Senate limits new fiscal expansion, which should ease the pressure of excess Treasury supply and push real yields and the dollar off their highs, and the transmission to gold runs through growth, inflation, real rates, the dollar and hedging demand
- 174360doc 个人图书馆, October 2026: the poll of professional forecasters had the House rating at 220 Democratic seats against 200 Republican with 15 undecided and the Senate at 48 Democratic, 47 Republican and 5 undecided, and prediction market pricing at the end of September had a Democratic House at 91.5 percent and a Democratic Senate at 63.0 percent
- 175新浪财经, October 31, 2026: the SPDR Gold Trust daily holdings record, with holdings of 1,041.65 tonnes on October 30 for a 0.57 tonne increase, 1,041.08 tonnes on October 29 for a 2.28 tonne fall and 1,043.36 tonnes on October 28 for a 1.71 tonne increase
- 176Jin10 Data, November 1, 2026: the CME oil market paused its around-the-clock crude contract on concern about weekend liquidity, and the site's own news package carried the October 31 and November 1 items including the record Binance theft, the fifth tanker in the strait and the Chinese official October purchasing managers' index
- 177中国人民银行 via 中国金融信息网 and 证券时报, October 30, 2026: the party committee meeting chaired by the governor reaffirmed a moderately loose monetary policy with ample liquidity, a multi-layered modern financial market and the prevention of financial risk
- 178CCTV via 央广网, October 31, 2026: the New York closing prices for the major dollar pairs on October 30, with the dollar index down 0.16 percent at 101.878 and the euro, sterling, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona all firmed against it except the yen