美联储10月加息概率回落至30%以下
October rate hike odds retreat below 30%
Alat CME FedWatch menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas pasar terhadap kenaikan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan FOMC Federal Reserve pada tanggal 28 Oktober turun dari 50% menjadi 27,1%. Harga pasar telah berubah secara signifikan dalam beberapa hari terakhir.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October dropped from 50% to 27.1% in a single day, indicating that the market's pricing of the short-term tightening path has significantly cooled down. This change may ease the dollar's support from interest rate expectations and affect the holding cost logic of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold. Traders need to pay attention to whether subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials and economic data will further revise this expectation.
CME FedWatch概率单日从50%降至27.1%，这一变化能帮助理解10月会议前市场加息预期的降温。
来源：Seeking Alpha Market Currents · seekingalpha.com