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宏观与政策

美联储 最新动态

美联储的全部动态：利率决议、点阵图、官员讲话与资产负债表变化，及其对黄金美元的影响。

66 条精选近 30 天 57 条共收录 130 条

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精选归档 · 第 4 页

10月8日周四第 61–66 条
  1. Federal Reserve Speeches69

    Fed Governor Waller discusses the signaling value of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)

    In his speech, Fed Governor Waller explained that the September interest rate hike was due to the stability of the labor market and continued inflationary pressure, and proposed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as an interest rate path signaling tool that retains data dependence. The September SEP dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 participants expect to raise interest rates at least once during the year. The federal funds futures market has an 85% probability of at least one interest rate hike before December and a nearly 80% probability of at least two interest rate increases at the March 2027 meeting.

    Editorial Comment

    Waller's explanation of the basis for raising interest rates in September and the SEP dot plot show that most officials expect further interest rate increases during the year, indicating that policy communication still sends tight signals under a data-dependent framework. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, attention needs to be paid to whether market pricing and dot chart expectations continue to converge, and if labor and inflation data deviate from officials' assumptions, it may trigger a re-evaluation of the policy path.

    Why we picked this

    沃勒亲述9月加息依据与SEP信号作用，点阵图在保留数据依赖的同时传递政策路径，可作为理解美联储沟通方式的一手材料。

  2. CNBC Economy71

    New York Fed survey's one-year inflation expectations rise to highest since May 2023

    The New York Fed's Consumer Expectations Survey showed that the median inflation expectation for the next 12 months rose to 3.9% in September, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from August, the highest since May 2023. Household spending growth expectations also rose to 5.5%, with the three-year outlook rising slightly to 3.3% and the five-year outlook remaining unchanged at 3%.

    Editorial Comment

    The New York Fed survey showed that one-year inflation expectations have increased significantly, and household spending expectations have risen simultaneously, which may strengthen the market's expectations for the Fed to continue its restrictive policies, put pressure on gold in terms of holding costs, and support the strength of the US dollar. Traders need to pay attention to whether this expectation is further reflected in interest rate market pricing, and pay attention to subsequent inflation data and verification of the stance of Federal Reserve officials.

    Why we picked this

    纽约联储调查显示一年通胀预期升至2023年5月以来最高，家庭支出预期同步上行，为评估美联储政策路径提供直接数据。

  3. CNBC Finance71

    Fed meeting minutes showed officials expected to raise interest rates before the end of the year but gave no specific timetable

    The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials expected to raise interest rates again before the end of the year to deal with inflation that has been above the 2% target for more than five years, but did not give a specific time for raising interest rates. The September meeting unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and 16 of the 18 officials who submitted forecasts expected another rate increase. However, recent inflation data have been lower than expected and many officials have stated that there is no need to rush into action. The possibility of raising interest rates in October has decreased; the next interest rate meeting is scheduled for October 28 and December 9.

    Editorial Comment

    The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting confirmed that officials preferred to raise interest rates once before the end of the year but did not give a timetable. Coupled with recent lower-than-expected inflation, market expectations for actions at the October meeting may have cooled. For gold and the U.S. dollar, attention needs to be paid to the difference in expectations between the October 28 and December 9 meetings, as well as the pull on real interest rates from high yields and falling inflation.

    Why we picked this

    会议纪要确认美联储官员倾向年底前再加息但未给时点，叠加通胀回落与收益率高位，读者可据此判断十月与十二月会议的预期差。

  4. Federal Reserve Press Releases54

    The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the FOMC meeting on September 15-16

    The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The minutes are usually released three weeks after a policy decision and are based only on information available at the time of the meeting.

    Editorial Comment

    The release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting provides the market with a window to observe the details of policy discussions. The language on reducing the pace of asset purchases and the persistence of inflation may trigger short-term fluctuations in gold and the US dollar. However, the content of the minutes is only based on the information available at the time of the meeting, and there is a certain lag. Traders need to evaluate its reference value in conjunction with subsequent economic data to avoid overreaction to lagging signals.

10月2日周五
  1. Federal Reserve Speeches54

    Federal Reserve Board Governor Jefferson talks about U.S. economy and monetary policy

    Fed Governor Jefferson said the U.S. economy may continue to show resilience and add employment, extending a six-and-a-half-year expansion, but inflation is too high and risks are tilted to the upside. He mentioned that PCE rose by 3.4% year-on-year in August, core inflation was more moderate, and the FOMC raised the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3-3/4% to 4% last month. Future policy adjustments will depend on data, outlook and the balance of risks.

    Editorial Comment

    The Fed governor's remarks highlighted that the risk of rising inflation remains at the core of policy, while the resilience of the job market provides room for continued tightening. For gold, the high inflation environment brings certain support, but uncertainty about the path of interest rates may amplify fluctuations. Traders need to focus on how subsequent PCE and employment data affect the balance of risks and tightening expectations.

    Why we picked this

    原文给出了美联储理事对通胀上行风险和就业大致平衡的判断，并说明上月加息后政策将依赖数据与风险平衡。

9月30日周三
  1. Federal Reserve Press Releases57

    Fed finalizes new stress test rules to increase transparency and reduce volatility in capital requirements

    The Federal Reserve finalized two rules to strengthen stress test transparency and public accountability and reduce the volatility of stress test-related capital requirements. The rules require annual public consultation on test scenarios and major model changes, with the 2027 stress test adopting an updated model and applying two global market shocks to banks with large trading books. Starting from 2028, the stress capital buffer requirement will be the average of the results of the two most recent annual stress tests, and the year-on-year fluctuations in capital requirements are expected to be reduced by approximately 50%.

    Editorial Comment

    The Federal Reserve's increased transparency in stress tests and smoothing out fluctuations in capital requirements will help reduce banking regulatory uncertainty, which may in turn affect the market's assessment of the stability of the financial system and risk appetite. For foreign exchange and gold traders, this measure may indirectly affect the volatility environment of the U.S. dollar and gold by changing bank stock performance, U.S. dollar liquidity expectations, and overall risk aversion. It is worth paying attention to the guidance of subsequent specific model changes and the implementation of the two-year average mechanism on market risk pricing.

    Why we picked this

    美联储通过每年公开模型变更并自2028年起两年平均压力测试结果，使资本要求波动预计下降约50%，读者可据此判断银行资本监管规则的可预测性变化。