#央行政策

旧金山联储主席戴利称美国仍处高通胀轨道，可能需进一步加息

旧金山联储主席戴利表示，美联储可能仍需进一步收紧政策，但加息的具体时点和幅度尚未确定。她提到10月非农新增就业16.5万人、失业率降至4.1%，均好于华尔街预期，但9月CPI为3.7%、时薪同比涨3.1%，实际工资在下降。美联储9月已将基准利率上调25个基点至3.75%-4%区间，上周会议则选择按兵不动。

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda: consumer prices currently around 3%, expected to rise further early next year

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said during a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva that consumer prices are currently around 3% and are expected to rise further early next year, while underlying inflation may remain near 2%, though with some upside risks. He also said the BOJ will closely watch other central banks' actions because they affect asset prices, interest rates, and exchange rates, and that the central bank is internally discussing its communication approach but has made no formal commitment. Market views on the BOJ's December 18 decision are nearly evenly split.

美联储威廉姆斯：通胀水平过高，且持续时间过长

美联储威廉姆斯表示，通胀水平过高，且持续时间过长。

美国非农就业新增16.5万人，黄金下跌，市场对12月美联储加息的预期升温

美国非农就业数据新增16.5万人，黄金价格随之下跌，市场对12月美联储加息的预期升温。Kitco AM Report 报道了这一数据与金价走势。

美国10月非农就业数据前瞻：已公布数据整体偏强

美国10月非农就业数据公布前，市场共识预期新增就业+65K（区间+50K至+125K），失业率预期4.2%持平前值。已公布数据整体偏强：ADP就业+86K高于预期的+67K，ISM服务业与制造业就业分项均超预期，但Revelio Labs仅+26K、低于前值+68K。BMO指出历史上10月失业率有41%低于预期，整体非农数据相对预期存在温和负偏。

美国中期选举后AI股大跌，数据中心建设受阻

美国中期选举民主党获胜后，AI与科技股周四遭大幅抛售，Nvidia跌9.3%、AMD跌17.3%、Micron跌17.5%、Broadcom跌10.4%，Nebius、Iren、CoreWeave等neoclouds跌幅在10%至17%之间。

华尔街暴跌之际黄金守住涨幅、白银走低，美联储加息押注降温——Kitco PM 报告

华尔街股市暴跌之际，黄金守住涨幅，白银则走低，市场对美联储加息的押注有所降温。

美联储、欧洲央行与日本央行将如何收官这一年

美联储、欧洲央行与日本央行上周均按预期维持利率不变，作者认为12月大概率也不会有意外，基准情形是加息，日本因债务负担沉重而空间有限。美联储方面，9月通胀同比达3.6%，第三季度GDP年化增长3.4%，两名FOMC委员投票支持加息25个基点，其余委员则因观望中东局势而暂缓行动。

美国中期选举民主党领先引发亚太股市下挫，AI与芯片股领跌

美国中期选举早期计票显示民主党在参众两院领先，亚太市场周三大幅下跌，AI相关股票遭抛售，日经指数跌4.4%，韩国Kospi跌3.3%。标普500电子迷你期货在7,510附近、纳斯达克期货在27,710附近交易，市场担忧AI与数据中心投资面临更多阻力。

各国央行以2024年底以来最快速度增持黄金

各国央行正以2024年底以来最快的速度增持黄金。

澳大利亚加息至4.85%，创2008年以来18年新高

澳大利亚央行（RBA）11月3日将基准利率上调25个基点至4.85%，为2008年11月以来最高水平，也是今年第5次加息。9月CPI同比上涨4.3%，高于8月的4%，RBA预计通胀要到2027年底才能回到2-3%目标区间。行长Bullock称通胀"过高"，主要受中东冲突推高油价和AI相关投资推升科技产品价格影响，并表示必要时将继续加息。

RBA Chair Bullock Says This Hike May Still Not Be Enough

The RBA today raised rates by 25bp to 4.85%, the highest level in 18 years, in a 6-3 vote. Chair Bullock said this hike may not be the last, but judging whether to keep raising rates is "not so obvious," and said the RBA will remain data-dependent and wait to assess upcoming data. AUD/USD fell 0.3% on the day to 0.6975; after breaking below 0.7000, focus is on the 0.6900-15 support area below.

Gold falls to $3,900 as bears ignore dollar weakness and bet on Fed rate hikes

According to FXStreet, the price of gold fell to $3,900, as bears ignored the weakness of the US dollar and the market also bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

澳洲联储加息25个基点至4.85%，创18年新高

澳洲联储以6比3的投票结果加息25个基点至4.85%，为18年来最高水平，并预计通胀在2027年末前持续高于3%，澳元在决议后走低。中国央行将外汇存款准备金率从4%上调至6%，并将人民币中间价设得更弱，离岸人民币下跌0.26%至6.6642，为6月以来最大单日跌幅。亚洲股市多数跟随美股科技股走低，韩国Kospi下跌3.7%，日本因假期休市。

RBA Governor Bullock: No guidance after rate hike, better to observe data first

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the 25bp hike to 4.85% was to lower inflation and address domestic capacity pressures, but she offered no guidance on the next rate move, saying it is now appropriate to observe upcoming data first. She said inflation over the coming year is largely locked in, growth needs to remain subdued and the unemployment rate still needs to rise further; the board approved the hike 6-3, with the three dissenters more concerned about downside economic risks. She also said monetary policy will work but transmission takes time, unemployment remains relatively low and employment continues to grow, and no cracks are yet visible in the economy.

RBA raises rates 25bp to 4.85% as AI investment and energy costs push up inflation

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, the highest level in 18 years, with the monetary policy committee voting 6-3, as three members favored holding at 4.60%. The bank pushed back its forecast for inflation returning to the upper end of the 2% to 3% target range to late 2027, about three quarters later than previously expected, and said AI-related investment is driving rapid increases in prices of technology goods, while the Middle East conflict has also pushed up fuel and commodity prices. The decision contrasts with the Federal Reserve, which held rates steady last week, with Fed officials likewise warning that the AI investment boom is adding to price pressures.

Australian dollar falls after RBA raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, and the Australian dollar subsequently fell.

Same story, featured below《澳大利亚央行加息25个基点至4.85%，AI投资与能源成本推高通胀》

澳洲联储加息25个基点至4.85%，6比3投票分歧

澳洲联储周二将现金利率上调25个基点至4.85%，为2026年第五次加息，也是2008年以来最高水平，但投票结果为6比3，三名委员倾向维持4.60%不变。澳洲联储称通胀仍高且范围广泛，预计未来一年通胀保持在3%以上，直到2027年末才回到2%至3%目标区间顶部，比此前预测晚约三个季度。声明未释放进一步加息信号，称将关注数据并采取必要措施使通胀可持续回到目标。

国际金价大幅反弹，脱离一年低点

11月2日收盘，现货黄金上涨71美元至每盎司3,945美元，盘中一度触及3,968美元，脱离上周末创下的一年低点。油价盘中下跌近8%至每桶104美元，缓解了通胀担忧；FedWatch显示市场对美联储12月加息的预期概率为77%，低于一周前的80%。市场正关注本周美国中期选举，Julius Baer分析师认为美国财政赤字与债务利息负担将在长期支撑金价。

RBA November 3 Rate Decision Preview: 31 of 32 Economists Expect Hike to 4.85%

The RBA will announce its rate decision at 14:30 Sydney time on Tuesday. Thirty-one of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect a 25 bp rate hike, lifting the cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85%, the highest level in nearly two decades.

The Federal Reserve will reduce the number of votes on interest rates, which may affect the pace of borrowing cost adjustments

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced that the number of interest rate votes will be reduced in the next two years. There will be no vote or post-statement at one of the eight meetings next year. The number of "strategy" meetings will be increased to two the following year, leaving only six opportunities to adjust interest rates. On October 28, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75% to 4%, and inflation remained above the 2% target. Many experts believe that fewer meetings may make consumers wait longer for borrowing costs such as credit cards, mortgages and car loans, and the market will also have less understanding of the Fed's future policy signals.

US October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 54.9, Below Flash Reading of 56.0

The final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 54.9, below the flash reading of 56.0 and September's 55.9, though still above the 50.0 expansion threshold for a 15th straight month. Growth in output and new orders slowed, while export orders rose slightly for the first time since June 2025; the pace of selling-price increases was the fastest since September 2022, and employment growth the strongest since April 2021.

日本央行重申通胀已站稳2%，为何仍按兵不动

日本央行上周维持利率在1.25%不变后，再次强调基础通胀已升至与其2%目标相符的水平。最新季度展望报告将2027财年核心通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%，剔除生鲜食品和能源的核心核心通胀预测从2.6%上调至2.7%。日本央行仍希望评估此前加息对金融状况的传导效果，长期实际利率近期已在上升，这被视为不急于行动的理由之一。

黄金跌至一年低点：追加保证金放大美联储加息预期引发的跌势

黄金上周五跌超3%至每盎司3900美元下方，创一年新低，较历史高点回落约30%。德国商业银行认为科技股大跌可能引发追加保证金和被迫抛售避险资产，并预计贵金属将回升；油价走高、美国通胀数据坚挺以及市场对12月美联储加息的预期升温同样构成压力。美联储上周维持利率在3.75%至4.00%不变，两名官员投票支持立即加息。

Deutsche Bank alone predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged, and 31 of 32 economists expect to raise interest rates.

31 of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, with only Deutsche Bank Australia chief economist Phil O'Donoghue's forecast remaining unchanged. He believes that the September quarter inflation rate of 3.7% is in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia's own forecast, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%, and more data can be waited until December. The market is currently pricing in an 85% probability of raising interest rates, and Deutsche Bank expects Brent crude oil to fall back to $90 early next year.

PBOC Sets USD/CNY Central Parity at 6.7146, Weaker Than 6.6625 Expected

The People's Bank of China set today's USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.7146, compared with market expectations of 6.6625, making the yuan's central parity markedly weaker. The central bank allows the yuan to fluctuate 2% above and below that parity rate. On the day, it injected 541 billion yuan via overnight reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.25%. Separately, 1 trillion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 56 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 515 billion yuan.

China’s central bank sets overnight reverse repo rate at 1.25% and shifts to daily operations

The People’s Bank of China will conduct fixed-rate 1.25% overnight reverse repo operations every business day starting Monday. The initially disclosed overnight operation rate is below the 1.4% seven-day reverse repo rate. Seven-day operations have been changed to a fixed-quantity, multiple-award-rate tender method, used mainly during tax payment periods and month-ends. Other instruments previously priced against the seven-day rate will now use the overnight rate as the benchmark, with unchanged spreads. Economists said this is the clearest signal the central bank is moving toward a Federal Reserve-style overnight-rate operating framework.

JPMorgan 加入 RBA 11 月加息阵营，预计紧缩倾向将持续

JPMorgan 预计澳洲联储（RBA）将在本周会议上加息，市场定价显示加息概率约 90%。当前现金利率为 4.60%，若加息 25 个基点将升至 4.85%。JPMorgan 认为疲弱的经济活动会限制 11 月之后的加息空间，但因通胀仍过高，RBA 将维持紧缩倾向。决议定于悉尼时间周二下午 2:30 公布，同时发布季度货币政策声明及最新预测。

After gold hits one-year low, most Wall Street analysts expect further declines

Spot gold closed at $3,874 per ounce at the end of October, the lowest in a year, down about 30% from its January high of $5,595. Of 16 experts surveyed by Kitco News, 10 expect gold prices to keep falling this week; FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich sees a possible drop to $3,300 within the year, while StoneX's Daniel Pavilonis sees $3,000.

美联储 Barkin 倾向渐进降息，通胀压力扩散

美联储 Barkin 表示倾向渐进式政策路径，因通胀压力正在扩散。

今日外汇：日本央行维持货币政策不变，黄金跌破 4000 美元

日本央行维持货币政策不变，黄金跌破 4000 美元。

日本央行维持政策不变，黄金跌破$4,000

日本央行维持政策设定不变，黄金价格跌破$4,000。FXStreet 的每日外汇综述汇总了上述两项市场动态。

美联储穆萨莱姆称尽早加息可降低对整体经济的冲击风险

美联储官员穆萨莱姆表示，尽早加息可以降低对整体经济造成冲击的风险。该表态来自 Odaily星球日报的摘要报道，原文未提供更多细节。

纳斯达克因AI成本担忧重挫，美联储官员仍主张继续加息

纳斯达克综合指数10月30日下跌747.73点、跌幅2.86%，创2025年3月以来最差单月表现，市场对AI投入成本与回报的担忧升温。多位美联储官员同日发表偏鹰派表态，Logan认为至少还需两次25个基点加息，但美债收益率当日全线下行。现货黄金下跌约146.24美元、跌幅3.64%至3874.33美元，WTI原油升至102.89美元。

Fed's Musalem calls for near-term rate hikes, says current policy still too loose

Fed official Musalem called for rate hikes as soon as possible, citing that current policy remains too loose. The remarks come from an FXStreet report; the original text provides only the headline and summary, with no further details.

The Fed's hawks put pressure on gold, which fell below $3,886 and hit a new low for the year.

FXStreet reported that due to the continued pressure from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, gold fell below the support level of $3,886, hitting a new low for the year.

美联储巴尔金：逐步调整利率可行，政策方向“明确”

美联储巴尔金表示，逐步调整利率是可行的，政策方向“明确”。

Fed holds rates steady, two officials vote for a hike, so why is the dollar still flat?

FXStreet reports that the Fed kept rates unchanged at this meeting, two officials voted for a rate hike, and the dollar was broadly flat. The original text provides only the headline and summary, without giving the rate range, the identities of the voters, or the specific performance of the dollar index.

U.S. GDP grew by 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations, driven by AI investment and consumption

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on October 29 that GDP growth in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Consumer spending rose 3.8%, as corporate AI-related investments offset the impact of conflicts in the Middle East that pushed up oil prices. The Federal Reserve this week kept its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75%-4% and acknowledged that inflation remains high, and economists expect a rate hike in December.

Same story, featured below《美国三季度GDP初值3.4%高于3.2%预期》

ECB Keeps Tightening Option Open; EURUSD Rebounds After Failed Break Below 1.11135

The ECB kept rates unchanged, but Lagarde delivered a hawkish signal, saying this hold does not rule out a hike next time. EURUSD first broke below the double bottom around 1.11135 formed on October 14, touched a low of 1.1106 and then reversed higher to 1.1155, entering the 1.1152 to 1.11602 swing zone, with the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average at 1.11616 above. If it holds above 1.11616, the next targets are 1.11845 and 1.11913; if it stalls and pulls back, focus returns to 1.11130 to 1.11135 and 1.1106.