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11月2日周一
  1. ForexLive58

    US October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 54.9, Below Flash Reading of 56.0

    The final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 54.9, below the flash reading of 56.0 and September's 55.9, though still above the 50.0 expansion threshold for a 15th straight month. Growth in output and new orders slowed, while export orders rose slightly for the first time since June 2025; the pace of selling-price increases was the fastest since September 2022, and employment growth the strongest since April 2021.

    Editorial Comment

    Manufacturing expansion momentum is easing at the margin, yet selling-price increases are running at their fastest since September 2022 and employment growth at its strongest since April 2021 — evidence that price pressure is not cooling alongside activity, which constrains the Fed's policy room. For gold, weaker growth alongside sticky inflation calls for watching whether upcoming data reinforces the stagflation narrative; for FX, dollar sensitivity to rate differentials and policy expectations may rise, with the persistence of the prices and employment sub-indices in focus.

    Why we picked this

    报告显示美国10月制造业扩张放缓但价格分项加速，读者可据此理解通胀压力对美联储政策空间的约束。

  2. ForexLive58

    France's economic contraction coupled with debt concerns may drag down the euro zone's recovery

    The Eurozone's GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026 was 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, slowing down from 0.6% in the previous quarter, and France contracted by 0.1% in the same period. French public debt is close to 120% of GDP, and the budget deficit is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP in 2026. The 10-year government bond yield rose above 5.14% in October, the highest since 2002, and the interest rate gap between France and Germany has widened to the widest in 15 years. On October 30, Fitch lowered France's rating outlook from stable to negative, maintaining its A+ rating and predicting that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 115.7% in 2025 to approximately 124% in 2028.

    Editorial Comment

    France's GDP contraction in the third quarter combined with high debt and deficit, the 10-year government bond yield exceeded 5.14%, the spread between France and Germany widened to the widest in 15 years, and Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook, indicating that the market is pricing in France's fiscal risks. This transmission path will weaken the recovery momentum of the euro area and make it more difficult for the European Central Bank to make policy trade-offs between stabilizing growth and controlling inflation. Follow-up attention needs to be paid to the progress of the French budget, the actions of rating agencies and the trend of the Franco-German spread. The spillover effects may indirectly affect the gold pricing environment through the euro exchange rate.

    Why we picked this

    文章梳理法国经济收缩、债务与国债收益率攀升的传导路径，帮助读者理解其对欧元区复苏与欧洲央行政策取舍的影响。

  3. ForexLive54

    The final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 52.7 in October, and the accelerated rise in input prices increased pressure on the European Central Bank.

    The final value of the euro zone's manufacturing PMI in October was 52.7, lower than the initial value of 52.4 and September's 52.9. The output index fell from 53.6 to 52.8, a four-month low. Manufacturing in France and Italy returned to contraction, with domestic political uncertainty in France the main drag. Input prices rose at the fastest pace since May and inflationary pressures rose for the second consecutive month, posing a problem for the European Central Bank's December decision.

    Editorial Comment

    The final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was revised down and output hit a four-month low. France and Italy returned to contraction, indicating that recovery momentum is weakening. At the same time, input prices rose at the fastest rate since May, and inflationary pressures increased for the second consecutive month. The ECB's December decision faces a dilemma between growth and inflation. For traders, the focus is not on the absolute value of PMI, but on how the divergence between the price component and the growth component affects the market's pricing of the ECB's policy path, which is then transmitted to the euro and gold.

    Why we picked this

    欧元区10月制造业PMI终值回落至52.7，投入价格创5月以来最快涨速，为欧央行12月决议前的通胀判断提供参考。

  5. ForexLive57

    RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 in October, Beats Expectations but Firms Cut Prices to Chase Orders

    RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI was 52.0 in October, slightly below September's 52.1 and above market expectations of 51.6, remaining above 50 for the 11th consecutive month. Output growth was the fastest since April, while new orders increased for the 17th straight month, but export order growth slowed to a three-month low. Output prices fell for the second time in three months, and export charges declined for the first time in nearly a year, with firms attributing this to intense competition. The data contrasted with the official manufacturing PMI of 49.3 released on Saturday, while business confidence fell to a nine-month low.

    Editorial Comment

    The private-sector PMI beat expectations and stayed in expansionary territory, but it contrasted with the official PMI falling back below the boom-bust line, indicating that the manufacturing recovery is uneven. The slowdown in export orders coexists with firms cutting prices to chase orders, meaning resilience in external demand is being offset by price deflation pressure, and weakening business confidence warrants caution. Gold and forex markets should monitor how the divergence between the two sets of data affects China's growth expectations and sentiment toward related assets; a single month's data should not be interpreted linearly.

    Why we picked this

    读者可对照官方与民间两套PMI的分化，理解中国制造业出口韧性与价格通缩压力并存的格局。

10月31日周六
10月30日周五
  5. VnExpress Kinh doanh64

    U.S. GDP grew by 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations, driven by AI investment and consumption

    The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on October 29 that GDP growth in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Consumer spending rose 3.8%, as corporate AI-related investments offset the impact of conflicts in the Middle East that pushed up oil prices. The Federal Reserve this week kept its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75%-4% and acknowledged that inflation remains high, and economists expect a rate hike in December.

    Same story, featured below《美国三季度GDP初值3.4%高于3.2%预期》

    Editorial Comment

    U.S. GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations, and consumption and AI investment jointly supported growth. However, in contrast, household consumption confidence weakened, and the differentiation of the economic structure deserves attention. The Federal Reserve stayed on hold and admitted that inflation is still high, and market expectations for an interest rate hike in December have increased. This policy path will directly affect the pricing environment of the U.S. dollar and gold. Traders need to pay attention to whether subsequent inflation and consumption data can verify growth resilience.

10月29日周四
  4. ForexLive48

    欧洲时段综述：美股期货下挫，市场等待美国PCE通胀、欧洲央行决议与亚马逊财报

    欧洲时段美股期货走弱，标普500期货跌0.4%、纳斯达克期货跌1.1%，Alphabet财报重新引发对AI支出的担忧。现货黄金跌1.1%至$4,018，10年期美债收益率降2个基点至5.02%，WTI原油跌0.8%至$101.95。市场接下来关注美国PCE通胀数据、欧洲央行利率决议以及亚马逊财报。

  5. ForexLive69

    U.S. core PCE rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, higher than expectations of 0.3%

    The U.S. core PCE rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, higher than the expectation of 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.2%; it rose 0.3% year-on-year, lower than the expectation of 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.0%. The overall PCE rose 3.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 3.4%; personal income rose 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expectation of 0.3%; personal expenditures rose 0.5% month-on-month, lower than the expectation of 0.6%. After the data was released, the US dollar was close to the day's high against the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar, but the exchange rate reaction was limited, and the market's attention turned to the artificial intelligence sector after Google's financial report fell short of expectations.

    Why we picked this

    美国9月核心PCE环比0.5%高于预期，读者可据此了解通胀数据与美元、市场关注点的关系。

  7. ForexLive69

    The initial value of U.S. GDP in the third quarter was 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2%

    The initial annualized GDP value of the United States in the third quarter was 3.4%, which was higher than the market expectation of 3.2% and slightly higher than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of 3.3%. Among the sub-items, investment contributed 3.27 percentage points, and consumer spending contributed about 2.52 percentage points. Net exports were a significant drag, and actual final sales only grew by 1.7%, lower than the 2.0% expectation. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, slightly above expectations of 2.4%.

    Why we picked this

    美国三季度GDP超预期但实际最终销售走弱，读者可据此判断库存对增长的贡献与美联储后续政策空间。

10月26日周一
  1. ForexLive54

    Brazil ETF drops nearly 15% on Lula's victory

    Brazil ETFs fell nearly 15% in Tokyo trading as Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff. Goldman Sachs said that under extreme circumstances, the U.S. dollar may rise by 10% against the Brazilian real, the Brazilian stock market may fall by 15%, and long-term government bond yields may rise by about 200 basis points. Meanwhile, gold is near three-month lows, oil prices opened lower after not upgrading over the weekend, and the market is focused on central bank meetings such as the Federal Reserve this week.

    Editorial Comment

    The results of the Brazilian election triggered a sharp decline in Brazilian ETFs. The foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to the risk transmission of real-related currency pairs and the spillover effects of emerging market asset fluctuations on the US dollar. At the same time, with gold close to a three-month low, oil prices opening lower, and multiple central bank meetings this week, traders should focus on tracking the interactive impact of the subsequent performance of Brazilian assets and policy signals such as the Federal Reserve on safe-haven assets and currency market sensitivity.

    Why we picked this

    巴西大选结果直接触发ETF急跌，材料同时覆盖原油、黄金和多家央行会议预期，为理解亚太时段多资产联动提供具体线索。

10月22日周四
  2. FXStreet News46

    U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 194K last week

    The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 194K last week.

    Same story, featured below《美国初请失业金人数降至194,000，接近1960年代末以来最低》

    Editorial Comment

    The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 194,000 last week, reflecting that the labor market remains resilient. This data may affect the market's pricing of the Fed's policy path, triggering fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and gold. Traders should pay attention to whether subsequent employment and inflation data can continue this signal.

  3. CNBC Top News54

    U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 194,000, near lowest level since late 1960s

    The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 in the week ended October 17, close to the 189,000 in the week ended July 18, the lowest level since the late 1960s. Non-farm employment increased by only 29,000 in September, with an average monthly increase of 69,000 in 2026. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but the layoff rate fell to 1%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October and raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

    Editorial Comment

    The number of initial jobless claims is close to a historical low, but non-farm employment increased by only 29,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This differentiation makes the Fed's balance between inflation and employment more complicated. The market's expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December are in contrast to the weak employment data. Traders need to pay attention to subsequent statements by Federal Reserve officials on the resilience of the job market and the need to raise interest rates, which may increase the volatility of gold and the US dollar.

    Why we picked this

    初请失业金人数降至194,000逼近历史低点，同时非农就业仅增29,000，这一分化指向美联储在通胀与就业间的平衡。

10月21日周三
  1. CNBC Top News73

    British inflation rises to 3.5%, reinforcing expectations of interest rate hike

    UK CPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year in September, higher than the expected 3.4%, the highest in a year, reinforcing expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates. Fuel prices rose 29.8% year-on-year, the highest since August 2022. Net energy import dependence makes the UK vulnerable to external energy shocks.

    Editorial Comment

    Higher-than-expected inflation in the UK strengthens interest rate hike expectations, which means that the sensitivity of the pound and UK bond yields to the path of monetary policy has increased, and traders need to pay attention to the central bank's subsequent policy signals. The sharp rise in fuel prices highlights the external impact brought about by dependence on net energy imports. This cost-push inflation may intensify concerns about stagflation, creating a complex game between the safe-haven properties of gold and the suppression of expectations for interest rate hikes.

    Why we picked this

    英国9月通胀升至3.5%超预期，燃油价格同比涨29.8%，强化加息预期，是判断英债收益率和英镑走向的关键数据。

  2. ForexLive49

    The UK's September CPI report was released today, and the Bank of England's interest rate hike in November is almost fully priced.

    The UK September CPI report was released today, and the market has almost completely priced in the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The market expects the overall CPI to rise by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI to rise by 2.8%, both higher than the previous values. Traders price the probability of an interest rate hike in November at about 96%, and the probability of continuous interest rate hikes in December at about 61%; the author believes that hotter data may strengthen expectations for further tightening after November, while softer data may prompt traders to reduce some aggressive expectations.

    Editorial Comment

    The UK's September CPI data will verify the market's almost complete pricing of the Bank of England's interest rate hike in November. The market expects both overall and core inflation to be higher than the previous value. This means that if the data is higher than expected, it may strengthen expectations for further tightening after November. If the data is lower than expected, it may prompt traders to reduce some aggressive bets. For sterling and gold traders, the key is not the single rate hike itself, but how the data changes the market's marginal pricing of the policy path in December and beyond.

    Why we picked this

    原文给出9月CPI预期和11月、12月加息隐含概率，可据此观察数据公布后英央行紧缩预期的边际变化。

  3. ForexLive61

    Japan's exports in September increased by 16.7% year-on-year, growing for 13 consecutive months. Supported by demand for AI chips, the trade deficit narrowed

    Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed that exports increased by 16.7% year-on-year in September, increasing for 13 consecutive months, mainly driven by demand for semiconductors and AI-related products and price increases by companies. Imports increased by 18.9% due to delays in the arrival of crude oil due to oil tankers detouring through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; the trade deficit narrowed to ¥53.66 billion (approximately US$3.4 billion), still higher than the expected ¥18.1 billion. The Japanese government expects crude oil purchases in October to return to the same period last year, which may push up import bills.

    Editorial Comment

    Japan's exports have grown for 13 consecutive months, reflecting that AI-related external demand is still resilient. However, the narrowing of the trade deficit in September was mainly due to the short-term disturbance of delayed crude oil arrival. The subsequent recovery of imports may change the trade balance. Traders need to distinguish this temporary factor from real export trends and pay attention to the potential impact of the data on the yen exchange rate, as well as the indirect transmission of changes in global technology demand on risk appetite and safe-haven assets.

    Why we picked this

    日本出口连续13个月增长且AI芯片需求仍强，但9月逆差收窄主要源于石油到港延迟，需区分短期扰动与外部需求趋势。

10月20日周二
  1. ForexLive41

    ForexLive 欧洲新闻汇总：油价上涨持续压制风险情绪

    WTI 原油上涨 2.16% 至 $100.65，受胡塞武装袭击沙特能源目标及美伊谈判停滞推动，继续压制风险情绪。英国失业率从 4.9% 降至 4.7%、就业增加 102K，强化英国央行加息预期。德国 10 月 ZEW 现状指数从 -47.1 升至 -35.9、预期指数降至 28.1；日本央行 10 月 30 日料维持利率 1.25% 不变，12 月加息概率约 73%。

  2. ForexLive64

    UK ILO unemployment rate in August was 4.7%, lower than expected 5.0%

    The UK's ILO unemployment rate in August was 4.7%, lower than expected 5.0% and the previous value of 4.9%; data on employment changes in August, average weekly earnings and wage changes in September were also released.

    Editorial Comment

    The UK's ILO unemployment rate in August was 4.7%, lower than the expected 5.0% and the previous value of 4.9%, indicating that the labor market was more resilient than expected. This data provides a new reference for the market to evaluate the policy path of the Bank of England. It will be necessary to combine the salary data released at the same time to observe whether inflationary pressure continues. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, data-driven fluctuations in the pound may have an indirect impact through the U.S. dollar index, and traders can pay attention to the linkage of related currency pairs and U.S. dollar-sensitive assets.

    Why we picked this

    英国8月ILO失业率4.7%低于预期的5.0%，前值4.9%，单月数据提供了一个直接与市场预期对照的就业快照。

10月19日周一
  1. ForexLive42

    今日主要事件：加拿大CPI报告

    今日美国时段将公布加拿大CPI报告，市场预期CPI同比上涨3.2%（前值3.0%），加拿大央行更关注的Trimmed Mean CPI同比为1.9%（前值1.9%）。市场目前定价加拿大央行下次会议加息概率为35%，12月加息概率为68%。欧洲时段无议程；油价因特朗普豁免部分俄罗斯制裁有所回落，但乌克兰袭击能源基础设施令风险溢价仍高，未缓和前油价不太可能从高位大幅回落。

  2. VnExpress Kinh doanh71

    China’s GDP grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating expectations

    China's GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, beating market expectations and breaking away from a nearly four-year low in the previous quarter. Manufacturing and exports, especially the production of AI-related high-tech products, were the main drivers, with a nine-month trade surplus of nearly $940 billion. However, fixed asset investment fell by 7.2%, retail sales increased by 2.6%, and consumption and private investment were weak.

    Editorial Comment

    The higher-than-expected GDP in the third quarter was mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, but consumption and private investment data were weak, indicating that the recovery of domestic demand is still uneven. Traders need to pay attention to the potential impact of this structural temperature difference on RMB exchange rate expectations and subsequent policy rhythm.

    Why we picked this

    三季度 GDP 4.5% 高于预期，制造业和出口是主引擎，但消费和投资数据偏弱，凸显复苏结构的温差。

10月17日周六
  1. VnExpress International Business40

    越南设定2027年GDP增长至少10%目标

    越南政府提出2027年GDP增长至少10%的目标，并设定人均GDP 6100美元、CPI约4.5%、劳动生产率增长8.6%。2026年前9个月GDP增长9.01%，第三季度增长9.95%，全年预算收入估计为3.06千万亿越南盾（1182亿美元），同比增长14%。

  2. VnExpress Kinh doanh46

    越南政府向国会提交2027年GDP增长目标：力争10%以上

    越南政府向国会提交2027年经济社会发展计划，力争GDP增长10%以上，同时保持宏观经济稳定、控制通胀。2027年目标包括人均GDP达6100 USD，CPI涨幅约4.5%，社会劳动生产率平均提高8.6%。政府还提出继续调节利率、汇率，降低贷款利率，推动财政收入增长9.1%并节约经常性支出。

10月16日周五
  1. ForexLive57

    U.S. bond yields still fell 9.9 bps after PPI exceeded expectations, and the U.S. dollar fell across the board

    The U.S. PPI in September was 6.3%, higher than the expected 5.3%, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still fell 9.9 bps to 5.09%, and the U.S. dollar weakened across the board. There are rumors in the market that an AI-themed fund may have been liquidated. Its AUM may be $40 billion, with heavy holdings including Nebius, Bloom, Lumentum and CoreWeave. The decline in yields was interpreted as the market's concerns about AI-related credit risks, and attention will be paid to Federal Reserve Warsh's speech at the IMF roundtable.

    Editorial Comment

    The decline in U.S. bond yields coincided with the overall weakening of the U.S. dollar, breaking the normal reaction after inflation data exceeded expectations, indicating that the market's short-term trading focus turned to the credit risks caused by rumors of AI-themed fund liquidations. For gold, the weakening of the U.S. dollar constitutes a supporting variable, but it is more necessary to observe whether credit risks evolve into liquidity shocks, which often complicates gold's hedging logic. The follow-up speech by the Federal Reserve Warsh at the IMF roundtable is a key window for judging changes in policy expectations.

    Why we picked this

    原文把美债收益率下行与 AI 基金爆仓传闻并置，为观察 AI 交易风险如何传导到美债和美元提供了一个时点切面。

  3. VnExpress Kinh doanh50

    美国人逐渐习惯高通胀

    越来越多美国人开始把高通胀视为新常态，美国9月CPI同比上涨3.7%，通胀已连续65个月高于美联储2%的目标。纽约联储调查显示，一年期通胀预期升至3.9%，为三年多来最高。美联储官员担忧企业和消费者会长期调整行为，令通胀预期自我实现，削弱货币政策效果。

  4. CNBC Economy78

    Economists say red-hot PPI shows Fed's work isn't done yet

    U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in September. Wall Street economists accordingly raised their September core PCE forecast to 0.32% from 0.25% in August, and warned that the Federal Reserve still has the risk of continuing to raise interest rates. The core PCE annual rate is expected to rise to 3.1%; market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of this month is 29%, and the probability of raising interest rates at least once before December is 91%.

    Editorial Comment

    PPI exceeded expectations and led to an upward revision of the core PCE forecast. The market's pricing for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates has significantly increased. The core PCE forecast for September has been raised to 0.32%. For gold, rising interest rate expectations usually increase the opportunity cost of holding and constitute a headwind, while the US dollar may gain support from the strengthening of interest rate expectations. It is worth paying attention to whether subsequent core PCE data further confirms this logic.

    Why we picked this

    PPI超预期带动核心PCE预测上行，市场对美联储继续加息的定价明显抬升。