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  1. MarketWatch Top Stories52

    Goldman Sachs Adjusts Fed Rate Forecast on CPI Data

    After Tuesday's hotter-than-expected CPI data, Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's rate path, expecting the Fed to tighten policy further.

    Editorial Comment

    Goldman Sachs' adjustment to its Fed rate-path forecast after the hot CPI data reflects that mainstream institutions' judgments on the pace of policy are being revised as data come in, which directly affects rate expectations and the pricing of dollar assets. For gold and forex traders, the focus should be on whether more institutions follow with upward revisions to tightening expectations, and how changes in rate expectations transmit to the linkage between the dollar and gold prices.

    Why we picked this

    在CPI数据超预期后，高盛调整美联储利率路径预测，可观察机构对政策节奏判断的变化。

  2. ForexLive78

    Goldman Sachs Adds Three More Reasons for a Fed Rate Hike in March 2027

    In a Tuesday report, Goldman Sachs expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 bp at its December 8–9 meeting and by another 25 bp in March 2027, while pushing its expectation for the first rate cut to December 2027. This reverses Goldman's late-October judgment to call off the March rate hike. Three consecutive months of hotter-than-expected inflation are the direct cause; a further rise in oil prices or strong January inflation could bring the third hike forward to January.

    Editorial Comment

    Goldman has now reversed its late-October judgment to remove the March rate hike, reinstated its expectation for a March 2027 rate hike, and delayed the timing of the first cut. The core driver is three consecutive months of firmer inflation, while further oil price gains or strong January inflation could also bring the hike forward. For the gold and forex markets, this revision to policy expectations will affect the market's pricing logic for the Fed's interest-rate cycle, and traders need to closely track expectation shifts driven by inflation and oil price data.

    Why we picked this

    文章梳理高盛上调美联储加息预期的通胀与油价逻辑，并呈现其对美元、美债、股市和黄金的跨资产影响。

  1. ForexLive61

    Goldman Sachs raises December Brent forecast to $105 on Middle East and Russia supply risks

    Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast from $90 to $105 and set its WTI forecast at $94, citing elevated supply disruption risks from the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The bank also lifted its 2027 average price forecasts for Brent and WTI to $88 and $78 respectively, and added an allowance of 1 million barrels per day of global supply disruption to its base case. Goldman said the market is pricing in a higher risk premium, with many traders seeing a durable diplomatic breakthrough as difficult to achieve.

    Editorial Comment

    By writing 1 million barrels per day of supply disruption into its base case, Goldman Sachs turns the oil risk premium from a tail assumption into a pricing premise. For gold, higher energy costs push up inflation expectations and make the path of real rates more uncertain, a transmission channel worth tracking closely. In FX, the differing energy import burdens across economies will keep shaping the relative strength of major currencies.

    Why we picked this

    高盛把供应中断纳入基准情形，读者可据此理解油价预测与通胀、黄金之间的传导关系。

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