Emas melihat ke arah $4,200 sekali lagi, tetapi pasaran bon masih memegang kuncinya
Emas cuba mencecah paras $4,200 sekali lagi, tetapi pasaran bon masih akan mempunyai pengaruh yang menentukan ke atas lantunan seterusnya. Data inflasi panas minggu lepas menyebabkan peniaga meramalkan bahawa kebarangkalian Rizab Persekutuan menaikkan kadar faedah pada bulan Disember adalah kira-kira 90%, dan hasil Perbendaharaan A.S. 10 tahun masih melebihi 5%, meletakkan tekanan ke atas aset emas tanpa faedah. Secara teknikal, $4,100 ialah sokongan utama di bawah. Jika ia jatuh di bawah, ia mungkin melihat ke arah halangan psikologi $4,000; jika ia berada pada $4,200, ia perlu menembusi kawasan $4,239.
Editorial Comment
Gold is testing high territory again, but the core variable is not technical but the bond market. Hot inflation has strengthened expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high, continuing to put opportunity cost pressure on non-interest-bearing gold. Traders should focus on observing the interaction between U.S. bond yields and key support and resistance, rather than simply pursuing price breakthroughs. In particular, they need to guard against the constraints on the sustainability of the rebound caused by rising yields.
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原文梳理了黄金反弹与美债收益率、美联储加息预期的联动，并给出 $4,100 和 $4,200 两个关键位的技术含义。