#高盛

Editorial Comment

The claim currently comes from a single source and has not been independently confirmed; traders should treat it separately from confirmed information on US-Iran talks and military pressure, and should not price directly off it. If the geopolitical tension narrative continues to build, crude oil risk premium and demand for safe-haven assets may draw attention simultaneously, but the nuclear strike rumor itself lacks verification, and a sentiment reversal after the claim is disproven should be guarded against. Watching for follow-up official statements and confirmation from authoritative sources is key to judging whether this news can translate into a sustained risk premium.

Editorial Comment

After Lula won the election, Brazilian assets faced repricing pressure. The Tokyo Brazil ETF fell nearly 15% during the session, indicating that the risk aversion sentiment of overseas investors has significantly increased. Under Goldman Sachs' extreme scenario, there is a significant risk of fluctuations in the dollar against the real and long-term government bond yields, and the market focus turns to the verification of selling by the real and interest rate futures after the local opening in Brazil. Foreign exchange traders need to be alert to the disruption of emerging market risk sentiment to the U.S. dollar, and the safe-haven properties of gold may also come under scrutiny in this process.