Saham-saham Asia turun tajam pada hari Jumat karena aksi jual saham-saham teknologi menyebar ke aset-aset berisiko di tengah kekhawatiran mengenai potensi perubahan peraturan di Amerika Serikat. Indeks Nikkei 225 turun 5,90% menjadi 57.478 poin, dan nilai tukar yen berada di kisaran 157,8.
Musk mengatakan bahwa penurunan saham AS seperti ini jarang terjadi bahkan baginya. Laporan tersebut menyebutkan bahwa saham-saham AS mungkin mencatat rekor penguapan nilai pasar satu hari tertinggi kedua, kedua setelah rekor US$3,5 triliun pada 16 Maret 2020.
Setelah hasil pemilu paruh waktu AS diumumkan, Bitcoin naik di atas $80,500 ketika saham AS dibuka pada hari Rabu, dan BTC/USD naik lebih dari 4%, rebound dari level terendah tujuh minggu. S&P 500 berjangka pulih dari level terendah tiga bulan di 7,490 poin menjadi 7,690 poin, dan The Kobeissi Letter menyebut penurunan sebelumnya sebagai "perangkap pendek."
After the midterm election results landed, Bitcoin and S&P futures rebounded in tandem from lows, showing the short-term restorative effect on risk appetite from the fading of political uncertainty. For gold, this kind of improvement in risk sentiment typically weakens safe-haven buying, but it needs to be observed whether the rebound can persist rather than being a one-day sentiment release. Traders should watch whether the linkage between US stock futures and crypto assets continues, and whether safe-haven funds show a phased return.
Kelompok konsumen Korea Selatan Citizens United for Consumer Sovereignty berencana untuk mengajukan keluhan ke Komisi Perdagangan Adil Korea Selatan pada hari Kamis, menuduh Tesla menyesatkan konsumen ketika memasarkan perangkat lunak Full Self-Driving di Korea Selatan karena sebagian besar kendaraan yang dijual di sana tidak dapat menggunakan fitur tersebut secara legal.
The South Korean consumer group's complaint over FSD marketing centers on the mismatch between software functionality and local regulatory certification, which highlights that Tesla's software revenue is highly dependent on certification progress in each country. For traders, this is a regulatory and reputational risk event in a single market and does not constitute a short-term macro driver, but it is worth watching whether it triggers scrutiny of FSD advertising claims in other markets, as well as the cumulative impact of such non-financial risks on Tesla's valuation narrative.
Indeks Nasdaq 100 mengalami koreksi ketiganya tahun ini, dan kekhawatiran terhadap AI terus meningkat. Artikel tersebut menyebutkan bahwa aksi jual saham-saham teknologi pada bulan Oktober masih berlanjut, dan menanyakan apakah hal tersebut akan terus bergerak menuju pasar bearish.
The Nasdaq 100 has entered its third correction this year, the tech stock selloff since October remains ongoing, and rising AI concerns are continuing to affect tech stock pricing. There is currently market debate over whether this round of selling will further develop into a bear market. Gold and forex traders can use this signal as a reference for observing cross-market risk appetite and track the potential impact of sentiment on the pricing of related instruments.
Pershing Square mengatakan dalam surat pemegang saham kuartal ketiga bahwa belanja modal oleh Microsoft, Meta, Amazon dan Google akan meningkat dari sekitar $140 miliar pada tahun 2023 menjadi sekitar $740 miliar pada tahun 2026, yang merupakan investasi pertumbuhan ofensif dan bukan biaya defensif.
Pershing Square characterizes the capital expenditures of ultra-large-scale cloud vendors as offensive investments, which essentially prompts the market to re-examine the free cash flow path of technology giants and the benefit structure of the chip supply chain. For gold and foreign exchange traders, the significance of this framework is that the technology capital expenditure cycle will affect risk appetite and US stock profit expectations, which will then be transmitted to the rhythm of safe-haven assets and the US dollar. It is worth tracking changes in capital expenditure guidance and free cash flow in subsequent financial reports.
Palantir melaporkan laba per saham yang disesuaikan sebesar US$0,44 dan pendapatan sekitar US$2,31 miliar pada kuartal ketiga, keduanya lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi pasar. Perusahaan menaikkan panduan pendapatan setahun penuh menjadi sekitar US$8,53 miliar dari sekitar US$8,15 miliar menjadi US$8,16 miliar, dan panduan pendapatan kuartal keempat menjadi sekitar US$2,65 miliar, sekitar 8% lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi pasar. Pendapatan komersial AS sekitar US$984 juta, dengan panduan setahun penuh untuk segmen ini meningkat menjadi sekitar US$3,56 miliar.
Palantir’s Q3 revenue and adjusted EPS both beat expectations. More importantly, its full-year and Q4 revenue guidance was revised upward, especially the U.S. commercial revenue guidance, providing direct evidence for judging the resilience of AI software demand. For forex and gold traders, this will indirectly affect dollar and gold pricing through tech-stock performance and overall risk appetite. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether delivery against the guidance can continue to validate AI demand.
Saham-saham AS rebound di tengah harapan kemajuan diplomasi antara Amerika Serikat dan Iran dan penurunan tajam harga minyak. S&P 500 naik 73,99 poin, atau 0,98%, menjadi 7.654,06, dan Indeks Komposit Nasdaq naik 332,28 poin, atau 1,31%, menjadi 25.769,28.
The rebound in U.S. stocks was driven by hopes for diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran and a sharp fall in oil prices. The Nasdaq led the rally, indicating a return to risk appetite, which suppressed gold's safe-haven premium. At the same time, the fall in oil prices also weakened the logic of inflation trading. It is worth noting that the article juxtaposes manufacturing data with the key technical levels of the three major indexes, allowing traders to observe the sustainability of the rebound. If risk sentiment continues, the short-term appeal of gold and safe-haven currencies may weaken marginally.
S&P 500 ditutup turun hampir 2% pada hari Jumat, dan VIX mencapai level tertinggi sejak April sebelum jatuh kembali ditutup pada 19,4, naik hanya 2,2 poin. Brent Kochuba dari SpotGamma mengatakan kenaikan tersebut relatif kecil, dan berdasarkan penelitiannya berdasarkan 126 aksi jual sejak 2018, VIX seharusnya naik sekitar 2,6 poin.
The S&P 500 fell nearly 2% in a single day while the VIX only rose 2.2 points, lower than the average of historical sell-off samples. This shows that the options market has not priced systemic risks and the panic premium is limited. For gold and foreign exchange traders, this is more like a reduction of leveraged funds than a comprehensive increase in risk aversion. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the VIX can continue to maintain a high level and whether safe-haven assets really receive capital inflows.
Nasdaq mengurangi sebagian kerugiannya setelah aksi jual tajam yang dipimpin oleh saham-saham AI dan teknologi, karena ekspektasi pasar terhadap perjanjian AS-Iran meningkatkan sentimen risiko. Iran mengusulkan pada akhir pekan bahwa mereka akan membuka kembali Selat Hormuz dalam jangka waktu dua hari dengan imbalan keringanan sanksi, mencairkan aset dan mencabut blokade, namun Amerika Serikat belum menerimanya. Penulis yakin bahwa terobosan dalam perjanjian tersebut dapat menyebabkan rebound, dan kemenangan Partai Demokrat dapat semakin menekan pasar saham. Secara teknikal Nasdaq sudah turun ke bawah area support 28.800 dan target selanjutnya di 26.971.
The US-Iran agreement is expected to improve risk sentiment, but the US has not yet accepted Iran's proposal, and there are still uncertainties in the implementation of the agreement. Traders need to pay attention to the disruption to the pricing of safe-haven assets due to developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The Nasdaq has fallen below key technical support. Doubts about AI investment returns and inflationary pressures are compounded by mid-term election uncertainties. The sustainability of the rebound in risk appetite needs to be verified, and the gold and foreign exchange markets may fluctuate accordingly.
CNBC memilah potensi dampak pemilu paruh waktu terhadap sektor saham AS: Jika Partai Demokrat memenangkan salah satu majelis, mereka akan mendapatkan kekuatan investigasi dan kemampuan negosiasi anggaran, namun Trump akan tetap mempertahankan kekuasaan luas seperti hak veto dan tarif. Statistik Morgan Stanley menunjukkan bahwa ketika Kongres terpecah di bawah kepemimpinan presiden dari Partai Republik, S&P 500 naik rata-rata 23% pada tahun setelah pemilu paruh waktu, dibandingkan dengan 16% ketika Partai Demokrat menguasai kedua majelis, namun analis di bank tersebut tidak yakin pola ini akan diikuti saat ini.
The midterm results will affect sector pricing mainly through policy levers rather than direct legislation: if Democrats take either chamber, investigative powers and budget-negotiation leverage would change expectations for policy-sensitive industries such as defense and healthcare, but Trump's veto power and tariff authority act as a hedge. Morgan Stanley's historical data shows US equities performed more strongly on average in the year after midterms under a divided Congress, but the firm explicitly cautions against applying this to the current situation; traders should watch changes in the policy-uncertainty premium rather than simply extrapolating historical averages.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2% in a single day and hit its biggest decline since June, reflecting a significant cooling of risk appetite in technology stocks. For gold foreign exchange traders, it is necessary to pay attention to whether such drastic adjustments in the equity market will trigger changes in the flow of safe-haven funds, as well as the transmission rhythm of risk asset fluctuations to the foreign exchange market and precious metals.
Harga saham Intel turun 29% selama sesi perdagangan tanggal 30 Oktober, kinerja satu hari terendah sejak tahun 1970an, setelah perusahaan memberikan panduan untuk kuartal ini yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan. Perusahaan memperkirakan laba per saham (EPS) untuk kuartal ini sebesar US$0,25 dan pendapatan sebesar US$15 miliar hingga US$16 miliar, sementara analis yang dihimpun LSEG memperkirakan pendapatan lebih dari US$17 miliar dan EPS sebesar US$0,43. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner mengatakan panduan tersebut telah memperhitungkan dampak ledakan pabrik chip Israel, yang merugikan pendapatan perusahaan sekitar $600 juta dalam dua kuartal tersebut.
Intel's nearly 30% single-day decline is less a matter of earnings than a concentrated repricing of the semiconductor capital expenditure cycle by the market, and the loss from the Israeli plant accident included in the guidance further reinforces the supply-chain disruption narrative. For gold and forex traders, such sharp swings in tech stocks tend to transmit through the risk-appetite channel—watch for follow-on effects across the U.S. tech sector and safe-haven fund flows, though a single corporate event on its own is not yet sufficient to constitute a macro trading signal.
Saham Reddit (RDDT) turun sekitar 29% pada hari Jumat menjadi ditutup pada $91.73. Harganya turun $37,87 hari ini dan mencapai level terendah baru dalam 52 minggu di $89,28. Hasil kuartal ketiga platform sosial ini melampaui ekspektasi, namun panduan untuk kuartal keempat lemah.
Reddit plunged about 29% in a single day and hit a 52-week low; the core driver was not the Q3 results but weak Q4 guidance, indicating that market pricing of high-valuation growth stocks has shifted toward sensitivity to forward guidance. For gold and forex traders, this is an observation sample of weakening risk-asset sentiment, and it is worth watching whether subsequent volatility in the US tech sector transmits to overall risk appetite, but a single-company event itself does not constitute a macro trading signal.
Indeks Komposit Nasdaq turun 2,86% menjadi ditutup pada 25.437 poin pada hari Jumat, kinerja satu hari terburuk sejak Juni, karena lemahnya hasil kuartal ketiga Intel meningkatkan aksi jual di sektor teknologi. Indeks turun 5% di bulan Oktober.
Nasdaq fell 5% in October, with Intel's weak performance triggering a sell-off in the technology sector, indicating a clear weakening in sentiment towards risk assets. For gold and foreign exchange traders, they need to pay attention to whether the correction of technology stocks evolves into a broader risk aversion, which in turn affects the relative performance of the US dollar and safe-haven assets; subsequent financial reports and changes in market sentiment are key observations.
Blackstone mengatakan kepada Anthropic bahwa mereka mungkin tidak menerima peringkat kredit tingkat investasi setelah IPO, menurut Financial Times. Berita tersebut menyeret saham AS lebih rendah, dengan Indeks Komposit Nasdaq turun 3,06% menjadi 25,382.18. Saham chip AI dan infrastruktur termasuk di antara yang mengalami penurunan terbesar, dengan Intel yang anjlok 30,25%. Para analis percaya bahwa kurangnya peringkat dapat meningkatkan biaya pinjaman dan mempersempit cakupan calon investor utang, sehingga menambah keraguan pendanaan pada perdebatan pengeluaran AI.
The key to this news is not Anthropic itself, but that the market has begun to incorporate the financing costs of AI capital expenditures into pricing: the lack of ratings means rising borrowing costs and a narrowing of the scope of debt investors, which directly affects AI chip and infrastructure stocks, and Nasdaq is obviously under pressure. For gold foreign exchange traders, it is worth paying attention to whether the sell-off in risky assets triggers changes in safe-haven capital flows, and the relative performance of the U.S. dollar and gold when credit concerns spread, rather than the single event itself.
Alasan kami memilih
材料把 Anthropic 的信用评级疑虑与 AI 板块融资成本、股价抛售联系起来,可观察市场如何重估 AI 投入的融资代价。
Reddit melaporkan laba per saham kuartal ketiga sebesar $1,40 dan pendapatan $895 juta, keduanya lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi LSEG. Namun, panduan pendapatan kuartal keempat adalah $1 miliar hingga $1,03 miliar, lebih rendah dari perkiraan Wall Street sebesar $1,05 miliar. Harga saham turun lebih dari 11% setelah bel.
Reddit's third-quarter results exceeded expectations but its fourth-quarter guidance fell short of expectations. Its stock price fell sharply after the market closed, reflecting the market's increased sensitivity to the prospects of monetizing ads on social platforms. The planned test of forced login means that the platform is trying to reduce its reliance on search traffic and strengthen its own user assets. The effectiveness of this strategic adjustment will affect the pace of advertising revenue. For gold and foreign exchange traders, this is marginal information at the level of risk preference. They can pay attention to the transmission of risk aversion sentiment caused by fluctuations in the US stock technology sector, but a single company's financial report itself does not constitute a macro trading signal.
Rivian melaporkan hasil kuartal ketiga tahun 2026, dengan kerugian yang disesuaikan sebesar 48 sen per saham, meleset dari perkiraan konsensus sebesar 62 sen, dengan pendapatan $2,16 miliar, melampaui perkiraan $1,99 miliar. Rekor 19.248 kendaraan dikirimkan pada kuartal tersebut, dan R2 menjadi model terlaris; bisnis perangkat lunak dan layanan memiliki pendapatan sebesar US$605 juta dan margin laba kotor sebesar 42%. Bisnis kendaraan memiliki pendapatan hampir US$1,55 miliar tetapi mengalami kerugian kotor sebesar US$80 juta.
Rivian's losses narrowed in the third quarter and revenue exceeded expectations. The software and services business became the profit fulcrum with a gross profit margin of 42%, while the vehicle business is still at a gross loss. The differentiation of the business structure is worthy of continued tracking. For gold and foreign exchange traders, this is a micro signal on the risk asset side. It does not constitute a macro pricing driver in itself, but it can be used as an auxiliary reference to observe the sentiment and risk appetite of U.S. growth stocks, focusing on whether the subsequent vehicle gross profit can improve with the increase in R2 volume.
Laba per saham Intel yang disesuaikan pada kuartal ketiga adalah 52 sen dan pendapatan sebesar $16,51 miliar, keduanya lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi analis LSEG, dengan pendapatan naik 21% dibandingkan tahun lalu. Namun, pendapatan bisnis komputasi klien dan AI fisik turun 5% tahun-ke-tahun menjadi US$8,1 miliar, dan pendapatan pusat data dan AI meningkat 78% menjadi US$7,3 miliar. Perusahaan memperkirakan pendapatan untuk kuartal ini sebesar US$15 miliar hingga US$16 miliar, dengan laba per saham yang disesuaikan sebesar 25 sen, lebih rendah dari ekspektasi analis sebesar US$17,1 miliar dan 43 sen. Harga saham turun 21% setelah pasar tutup. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner mengatakan perlambatan PC akan berlanjut setidaknya hingga paruh pertama tahun depan.
Intel's financial report showed clear differentiation: client computing business revenue fell by 5% year-on-year, and data center and AI business grew by 78%. However, the company's guidance for this quarter's revenue and earnings per share were lower than analysts' expectations. The stock price fell 21% after the market closed. The CFO even said that the PC slowdown will continue until at least the first half of next year. For traders, this reinforces the logic that the PC cycle is weakening and suppressing the chip sector. They need to pay attention to its transmission of risk appetite for technology stocks and the potential impact of changes in risk aversion on assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar.
Amazon dan Intel akan merilis laporan keuangan setelah pasar saham AS tutup. Pasar akan fokus pada apakah pendapatan AWS dapat mencapai sekitar US$45,4 miliar hingga US$45,6 miliar, meningkat dari tahun ke tahun sekitar 38%, dan apakah laba per saham Intel yang disesuaikan sekitar US$0,41, meningkat dari tahun ke tahun sekitar 77%, dapat terpenuhi. Perkiraan belanja modal Amazon sekitar US$220 miliar dan margin laba operasional AWS adalah kunci untuk menilai apakah investasi AI dapat dikonversi menjadi laba. Intel perlu memberikan bukti permintaan prosesor server dan kemajuan bisnis pengecoran. Starbucks, Gilead Sciences dan First Solar juga merilis laporan keuangan di hari yang sama.
The after-hours financial reports of Amazon and Intel will test both ends of the AI narrative: Whether AWS's growth rate and profit margin can match the capital expenditure of approximately US$220 billion will determine the market's confidence in the return on AI investment; Intel will need to prove its recovery with server processor demand and foundry progress. For gold and foreign exchange traders, the performance guidance of the two technology giants will be transmitted to the US dollar and safe-haven assets through the risk appetite of US stocks. The after-hours fluctuations after the financial reports are worth paying attention to.
Dalam postingan langka di X, Stanley Druckenmiller mengatakan dia "senang menjadi investor di bidang perdagangan(xyz)" dan berharap dapat menggunakan produknya untuk meningkatkan proses investasi. Sebelumnya, TradeXYZ mengumumkan akan bekerja sama dengan ICE untuk mencari persetujuan peraturan guna memperkenalkan pasar kontrak abadi Hyperliquid ke Amerika Serikat. Saham Hyperlikuid Strategies (PURR) naik 19% karena berita tersebut, dengan volume opsi melebihi 111,000, sekitar enam kali lipat rata-rata 30 hari.
Druckenmiller's rare public endorsement, combined with TradeXYZ's cooperation with ICE to seek to introduce Hyperliquid perpetual contracts into the regulatory path of the United States, constitutes a signal of accelerated integration of traditional finance and on-chain derivatives. For gold foreign exchange traders, it is worth noting that if this type of regulated perpetual contract is implemented, it may change the distribution pattern of leverage and liquidity, as well as the spillover of market sentiment reflected in the sudden increase in PURR stock price and option trading volume. Subsequent follow-up should track the progress of regulatory approvals rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Harga saham Boeing turun 10,7% dalam satu hari setelah laporan pendapatan pada 27 Oktober, ditutup pada $168,18. Pada tanggal 29 Oktober, harga rebound menjadi sekitar $173,60, meningkat sekitar 3,9% dari harga penutupan hari sebelumnya. Penulis percaya bahwa $169 hingga $171 adalah area support pertama yang patut diperhatikan. Jika harga saham turun kembali ke kisaran ini dan kemudian stabil dan membentuk titik terendah yang lebih tinggi, hal ini dapat menjadi dasar jangka panjang untuk berburu barang murah; jika turun di bawah $165 dan rebound gagal berulang kali, penilaian dasar akan melemah.
Boeing's single-day plunge of 10.7% after the financial report was a risk release at the individual stock level. The direct transmission to the gold and foreign exchange markets is limited, but it can be used as a reference for observing the risk appetite of U.S. stocks and the tendency of capital to avoid risks. What traders should pay more attention to is whether the sharp fluctuations in such heavyweight stocks will trigger the market's re-pricing of overall risk assets, thereby affecting the rhythm of the hedging allocation of the US dollar and gold. As for the support judgment of 169 to 171 US dollars, it only applies to Boeing stocks themselves and should not be extrapolated to precious metals or foreign exchange markets.
Indeks Komposit Nasdaq dan Indeks Nasdaq 100 keduanya turun sekitar 1,5%, keduanya jatuh di bawah rata-rata pergerakan 100 hari. S&P 500 hanya turun sekitar 0,50% dan mempertahankan support utama harian. Rata-rata pergerakan 100 hari Indeks Komposit Nasdaq berada di 26254,52, dan rata-rata pergerakan 100 hari Indeks Nasdaq 100 berada di 29559,42. Penulis menganggap kedua moving average ini sebagai batas antara risiko panjang dan pendek. Berikut ini fokus pada kisaran 25831 dan 28822 hingga 28953. Reaksi terhadap laporan keuangan memperkuat polarisasi, dengan Microsoft sedikit melemah dan Alphabet turun sekitar 12% karena narasi investasi AI-nya.