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只看Geopolitik#高盛
  1. ForexLive63

    Tucker Carlson mengatakan Trump mempertimbangkan untuk melancarkan serangan nuklir di Gunung Beliung Iran

    Tucker Carlson mengatakan di X bahwa Trump mungkin akan melancarkan serangan nuklir di Gunung Beliung Iran dalam beberapa hari, dan menambahkan bahwa keputusan mungkin akan diambil sebelum tanggal 7 November. Pernyataan ini belum dikonfirmasi secara independen.

    Editorial Comment

    The claim currently comes from a single source and has not been independently confirmed; traders should treat it separately from confirmed information on US-Iran talks and military pressure, and should not price directly off it. If the geopolitical tension narrative continues to build, crude oil risk premium and demand for safe-haven assets may draw attention simultaneously, but the nuclear strike rumor itself lacks verification, and a sentiment reversal after the claim is disproven should be guarded against. Watching for follow-up official statements and confirmation from authoritative sources is key to judging whether this news can translate into a sustained risk premium.

    Alasan kami memilih

    梳理未经证实的核打击传闻与已确认的美伊谈判、军事施压信息，帮助读者判断原油地缘风险溢价的来源。

  1. ForexLive70

    ETF Brasil Tokyo turun hampir 15% karena Lula berbalik arah untuk memenangkan pemilihan presiden

    Lula mengalahkan Senator sayap kanan Flavio Bolsonaro dalam pemilihan presiden Brasil pada hari Minggu, dengan perolehan sekitar 52% hingga 48% suara. ETF Brasil yang terdaftar di Tokyo turun hampir 15% selama sesi tersebut. Dalam skenario ekstrim yang diberikan oleh Goldman Sachs, dolar AS mungkin akan naik sebesar 10% terhadap nilai sebenarnya, imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah jangka panjang mungkin akan meningkat sekitar 200 basis poin, dan pasar saham Brasil mungkin akan turun sekitar 15%. Perhatian pasar beralih ke pembukaan pasar lokal Brasil, di mana kontrak riil, suku bunga berjangka, dan indeks Bovespa akan memverifikasi apakah penjualan terus berlanjut.

    Editorial Comment

    After Lula won the election, Brazilian assets faced repricing pressure. The Tokyo Brazil ETF fell nearly 15% during the session, indicating that the risk aversion sentiment of overseas investors has significantly increased. Under Goldman Sachs' extreme scenario, there is a significant risk of fluctuations in the dollar against the real and long-term government bond yields, and the market focus turns to the verification of selling by the real and interest rate futures after the local opening in Brazil. Foreign exchange traders need to be alert to the disruption of emerging market risk sentiment to the U.S. dollar, and the safe-haven properties of gold may also come under scrutiny in this process.

    Alasan kami memilih

    卢拉胜选为巴西资产带来重新定价风险，东京ETF已下跌近15%，高盛极端情景显示美元兑雷亚尔或涨10%、长端收益率或升约200个基点。

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