德国10月通胀放缓至2.8%，冬季能源风险令欧央行加息押注延续

Germany's October CPI final reading rose 2.8% year-on-year, in line with the preliminary figure and below the prior 3.3%; core annual inflation was confirmed at 2.1%, down from 2.4% in September. Slower energy price growth and a temporary fuel tax cut effective from October 1 pushed down headline inflation, while services and goods prices also fell month-on-month. The author notes that the approach of winter combined with low natural gas inventories could push gas prices higher in the coming weeks and pass through to consumer prices in early next year; the market currently prices about a 79% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December.