美国 CPI 预测分布与核心 CPI 环比的市场影响
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
The U.S. CPI forecast distribution shows that the overall CPI year-on-year consensus is 3.6%, and the core CPI month-on-month consensus is 0.2%. The market is paying attention to the core CPI month-on-month. If it rises to 0.4%, it may trigger risk aversion, the dollar rises, and U.S. stocks and precious metals fall; if it is in line with or lower than expectations, it will provide short-term respite.
The market is more sensitive to core CPI month-on-month than the overall data, and the 0.4% threshold is clearly regarded as the risk aversion trigger line. Traders need to pay attention to the deviation of the actual value from the consensus of 0.2%, rather than just looking at the year-on-year data, because exceeding expectations may simultaneously suppress precious metals and push up the dollar. In line with or below expectations would provide short-term respite for risk assets, but the sustainability of this situation remains to be seen.
原文梳理了美国 CPI 各分项预测分布，并分情景推演核心 CPI 环比超预期或符合预期对美元、美股和贵金属的短期影响。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com