TD证券预计黄金将回测3900美元支撑位
TD Securities sees gold retesting $3,900 as Fed hike bets and a firm dollar bite
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, expects gold to retest support near $3,900 an ounce as U.S. rates rise and the dollar strengthens. Gold fell below $4,000 on Wednesday, extending a two-day decline, after U.S. October CPI came in above expectations, reinforcing market bets on a Fed rate hike in December. In July, TD Securities held that gold would not fall below $3,900 unless the Fed hiked early; that premise has now changed. The bank maintains its long-term view that gold could rise above a record high of $5,300 in 2027.
TD Securities' call on the $3,900 support has shifted from "conditional" to "base case"; the core variable is rising market bets on a December Fed hike, with rates and the dollar temporarily outweighing safe-haven logic. Traders should watch how hike expectations are priced after the CPI beat and how gold reacts when it retests that support, which is more informative than direction alone. The bank's long-term bullish view through 2027 is unchanged; short-term pressure and long-term optimism coexist, a reminder not to treat a pullback simply as a trend reversal.
TD证券对黄金的关键点位判断出现转向，读者可借此理解利率与美元如何压过地缘避险逻辑。
来源：ForexLive · investinglive.com