#大宗商品

EIA：截至10月16日当周美国天然气库存净增 +77 Bcf

EIA公布，截至10月16日当周美国天然气库存净增+77 Bcf，总库存由前一周的3,567 Bcf升至3,644 Bcf。市场共识预期为80 Bcf；天然气期货（NG1:COM）上涨0.38%至$2.80/MMBtu。相关ETF包括UNG、BOIL、KOLD、FCG、UNL和HNU:CA。

黄金价格下跌36美元，油价上涨

黄金价格下跌36美元，同时油价上涨。

Japan's exports in September increased by 16.7% year-on-year, growing for 13 consecutive months. Supported by demand for AI chips, the trade deficit narrowed

Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed that exports increased by 16.7% year-on-year in September, increasing for 13 consecutive months, mainly driven by demand for semiconductors and AI-related products and price increases by companies. Imports increased by 18.9% due to delays in the arrival of crude oil due to oil tankers detouring through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; the trade deficit narrowed to ¥53.66 billion (approximately US$3.4 billion), still higher than the expected ¥18.1 billion. The Japanese government expects crude oil purchases in October to return to the same period last year, which may push up import bills.

黄金跌破 $4,150，高油价强化美联储进一步收紧预期

黄金跌破 $4,150。高企的油价强化了美联储进一步收紧政策的前景，令金价承压。

黄金在收益率下降中承压，霍尔木兹外交引发油价反转

黄金在收益率下行的情况下仍承压，霍尔木兹外交进展带动油价反转。

ForexLive 欧洲新闻汇总：油价上涨持续压制风险情绪

WTI 原油上涨 2.16% 至 $100.65，受胡塞武装袭击沙特能源目标及美伊谈判停滞推动，继续压制风险情绪。英国失业率从 4.9% 降至 4.7%、就业增加 102K，强化英国央行加息预期。德国 10 月 ZEW 现状指数从 -47.1 升至 -35.9、预期指数降至 28.1；日本央行 10 月 30 日料维持利率 1.25% 不变，12 月加息概率约 73%。

Wall Street's AI rebound ebbs, South Korean AI data center company Elice plunges more than 30% on first day of listing

The U.S. AI rebound encountered obstacles in Asia and Europe, with South Korean AI data center company Elice plunging more than 30% on its first day of listing. Other data center companies such as Nvidia-backed Firmus have canceled IPOs, and Gartner analysts believe the AI ​​race could eventually shrink to a duopoly.

Weakness in stock markets could curb demand for Bitcoin after Bitcoin ETF saw biggest net inflows in a month

Bitcoin has fallen about 1.1% in the past 24 hours, and the spot U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $527 million on Monday, the largest in a month. BlackRock IBIT attracted US$665 million in a single day, the largest single-day inflow in more than a year, while Fidelity and Grayscale experienced net outflows. QCP Capital analysts believe that further weakness in U.S. stocks may be transmitted to the crypto market, and if it continues, it may threaten the $80,000 support level; the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $103 million on the same day, the fourth consecutive day of outflows.

Indian rupee's rebound after RBI intervention may be temporary, soaring oil prices weigh on

The Indian rupee rebounded sharply last week after the Reserve Bank of India passed foreign exchange intervention and regulatory measures, but the article believes that rising oil prices and foreign capital outflows made this rebound unsustainable. Technically, the USD/INR daily line has received buying orders near the support of 95.10. The upper resistance is at 96.10, and the 4-hour resistance is at 95.53; if it falls below 95.10, it will look towards 94.00. Short-term catalysts include U.S. initial jobless claims on Thursday and U.S. Flash PMIs on Friday.

AI 抛售加深，市场紧张情绪持续

The deepening sell-off in AI stoked market jitters, with South Korea's KOSPI down nearly 4% and CoreWeave down 4% in pre-market trading on U.S. stocks. Bitcoin has retreated slightly over the past 24 hours but is still holding on to $81,000, while gold is down nearly 1% to just over $4,110 an ounce. Brent and WTI crude rose 2% each, while the long-term U.S. Treasury bond ETF TLT rose 0.5%, attracting defensive funds.

今日主要事件：加拿大CPI报告

今日美国时段将公布加拿大CPI报告，市场预期CPI同比上涨3.2%（前值3.0%），加拿大央行更关注的Trimmed Mean CPI同比为1.9%（前值1.9%）。市场目前定价加拿大央行下次会议加息概率为35%，12月加息概率为68%。欧洲时段无议程；油价因特朗普豁免部分俄罗斯制裁有所回落，但乌克兰袭击能源基础设施令风险溢价仍高，未缓和前油价不太可能从高位大幅回落。

加拿大央行行长 Macklem：油价飙升使通胀前景显著上升

加拿大央行行长 Macklem 表示，油价飙升导致通胀前景显著上升。

Brian Sullivan: Why the 'real' price of oil could be $30 to $40 higher than now

Brian Sullivan believes the "true" cost of oil has reached $125 a barrel or more because buying physical crude and futures contract prices are two different things and transportation costs have risen significantly. He gave the example that the charter price for a VLCC from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China reached $76 million last week, which is equivalent to about $38 per barrel of crude oil on top of the oil price. He also pointed to gains in tanker-owner stocks and tipped Shell to hit new highs and RBC to focus on expanding U.S. LNG export profits.

U.S. bond yields still fell 9.9 bps after PPI exceeded expectations, and the U.S. dollar fell across the board

The U.S. PPI in September was 6.3%, higher than the expected 5.3%, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still fell 9.9 bps to 5.09%, and the U.S. dollar weakened across the board. There are rumors in the market that an AI-themed fund may have been liquidated. Its AUM may be $40 billion, with heavy holdings including Nebius, Bloom, Lumentum and CoreWeave. The decline in yields was interpreted as the market's concerns about AI-related credit risks, and attention will be paid to Federal Reserve Warsh's speech at the IMF roundtable.

Short covering became the main reason for today’s market rebound

The rebound in U.S. stocks was mainly driven by short covering, rather than the market's repricing of AI or a reversal in yields. Nike, which led the gains, rose 6.5%, and Lululemon rose 6.3%, both of which were the worst-performing stocks this year. The decline in yields drove Pool Corp to rise 8%, Zillow to rise 10.2%, and XHB ETF to rise 2.9%. There are also rumors of VARA AI fund liquidation (scale $40 billion AUM), and inflation data is on the hot side, and oil prices have risen another 3%. Bond market buying seems counterintuitive, and potential fund liquidation may distort prices.

Silver production at Mexico's San Dimas mine drops 41% and production halted

Silver production at Mexico's San Dimas mine fell 41% and production has now ceased.

Rising oil prices weigh on gold again, with market focus on U.S. CPI

Gold is under pressure again amid rising oil prices, with the market awaiting today's U.S. CPI data. The author judges that the core month-on-month data is the key. If it rises to 0.4%, it may cause gold prices to fall due to hawkish re-pricing. If it is in line with expectations or is lower, it may lead to a short-term rebound. Technically, sellers are focusing on 3,885 and buyers are focusing on 4,228.

WTI crude oil price analysis shows bullish momentum waning

ForexLive analyst Itai Levitan pointed out in an analysis on October 14 that WTI November crude oil futures rebounded slightly after falling from about $95.41 to $94.10. The classification of buying and selling volume showed that buyers failed to promote continued price increases, and sellers dominated in the short term.

Paul Tudor Jones is bullish on oil, saying conflict with Iran could push oil prices up another $20 to $25

Paul Tudor Jones is bullish on oil, believing that the conflict between the United States and Iran may push oil prices up another $20-$25. WTI crude oil futures were trading at about $92.50 on Tuesday morning. If realized, it would exceed the previous closing high of nearly $113/barrel in 2026. He also said the stock market would strongly resist such a rise and predicted that stocks may be pressured in 2027 by the increase in stock supply from the IPOs of large technology companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI.

Same story, featured below《Paul Tudor Jones 称 2027 年美股可能面临严峻挑战》

U.S. Treasury yields fall as energy prices fall

U.S. bond yields fell on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield falling more than 5 basis points to 5.1937% as energy prices fell. The 30-year contract fell 4 basis points to 5.5580%, and the 2-year contract fell more than 2 basis points to 4.7658%; WTI November crude oil futures fell 1.49% to $92.34. The market is paying attention to the September annual inflation forecast of 3.7% (3.4% in August) and the core CPI forecast of 2.5% announced on Wednesday.

Oil price fluctuations drive gold trends, focus on U.S. CPI

Gold is under pressure due to rising oil prices, and the market is paying attention to the impact of the U.S. CPI report on the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. On the daily chart, sellers will be positioned near the downward trend line, with a target of 3,885; buyers need to break through 4,228 to open up room for a rebound to 4,400. The US CPI will be released tomorrow, and there will be data on PPI, retail sales and initial jobless claims on Thursday.

NAB said Australia's business confidence index fell to -13, with oil price shocks and interest rate hikes putting pressure on

The NAB Business Confidence Index fell 4 points to -13 in September, while the Business Sentiment Index remained flat at -1 during the same period, both well below long-term averages. The RBA raised interest rates last month to a 15-year high of 4.60% and warned that inflation may tighten further if stickiness persists. Rising energy prices and financing costs are exacerbating corporate pessimism.

South Korea's Kospi plunged more than 6% and fell below 6,000 points. Chip selling and oil price concerns dragged down Asian stock markets.

South Korea's Kospi index plunged more than 6% to fall below 6,000 points, hitting a new low since July 31. It was dragged down by inflation concerns caused by a sell-off in chip stocks and rising oil prices. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.6%, China's ChiNext Index fell 3%, the CSI 300 Index fell 1.3%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2%. Brent crude oil was near a two-week high as the dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand.

IMF warns only 32 economies contribute 95% of global growth, AI widens gap

The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July, arguing that AI investments offset the energy shock of conflicts in the Middle East; but warned that sources of growth are increasingly concentrated, with just 32 economies contributing 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April. The oil price is assumed to average US$96/barrel this year and US$87/barrel next year, and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027; if AI investment falls rapidly, global output may decrease by 1.1% by 2028.

IMF上调2026年全球增长预测至3.1%，称AI投资热潮抵消战争影响

国际货币基金组织（IMF）将2026年全球经济增长预测从3%上调至3.1%，仍低于上年的3.5%，并维持2027年3.4%不变；报告称AI相关投资带来的‘需求冲击’帮助经济上半年好于预期。IMF同时警告AI投资可能推高通胀和金融脆弱，若AI生产率提升未实现，美股或跌20%，到2028年全球增长可能比基线低1.1%。

Delta Air Lines lowers 2026 profit forecast due to soaring fuel costs, CEO says demand remains strong

Delta Air Lines has lowered its 2026 profit forecast due to soaring fuel costs, lowering its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast to $5.10 to $5.60 from $6.50 to $7.50. The company also lowered its free cash flow forecast to $2.5 billion from a maximum of $4 billion, and third-quarter adjusted earnings per share and revenue fell short of analysts' expectations for the first time in two years. The CEO said that rising fuel costs are driving up ticket prices, but travel demand remains strong, and fourth-quarter revenue is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year.

Vietnam gold prices rise, global spot gold rises 1.1%

Gold prices in Vietnam rose on Friday, with Saigon Gold and Jewelry Company gold bar prices rising 0.91% to VND144.3 million (US$5,585.55) per tael, and global spot gold rising 1.1% to US$4,177.44 per ounce. The price of gold rings simultaneously increased by 0.91% to VND143.8 million per tael. The global rally was driven by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, falling U.S. bond yields and falling oil prices. The Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points last month, and the market is paying attention to subsequent economic data and policy clues before the Federal Reserve's October meeting.