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10月8日周四
  1. ECB Press Releases69

    The European Central Bank released the minutes of its September meeting and raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

    The European Central Bank released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting on September 9-10, 2026, and decided to increase the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, and the deposit facility interest rate rose from 2.25% to 2.50%. The minutes showed that the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East was more lasting than expected, and the staff raised the inflation forecast for 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. Officials assess inflation risks to be on the upward side, but the economy remains resilient and is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2026.

    Editorial Comment

    The European Central Bank minutes confirmed that the energy shock had led to an upward revision of inflation expectations and raised interest rates by 25 basis points, showing that policymakers are more vigilant about the risk of upward inflation than they are worried about economic resilience. For the foreign exchange market, attention will be paid to whether subsequent meetings will continue to tighten to anchor inflation expectations; for gold, the stickiness of energy-driven inflation may strengthen its anti-inflation properties, which needs to be evaluated based on the evolution of real interest rates and risk aversion.

    Why we picked this

    这份纪要披露欧洲央行加息25个基点的完整讨论，重点在于能源冲击下通胀上行风险与工资传导，可用于跟踪央行决策逻辑。

  2. Federal Reserve Speeches69

    Fed Governor Waller discusses the signaling value of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)

    In his speech, Fed Governor Waller explained that the September interest rate hike was due to the stability of the labor market and continued inflationary pressure, and proposed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as an interest rate path signaling tool that retains data dependence. The September SEP dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 participants expect to raise interest rates at least once during the year. The federal funds futures market has an 85% probability of at least one interest rate hike before December and a nearly 80% probability of at least two interest rate increases at the March 2027 meeting.

    Editorial Comment

    Waller's explanation of the basis for raising interest rates in September and the SEP dot plot show that most officials expect further interest rate increases during the year, indicating that policy communication still sends tight signals under a data-dependent framework. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, attention needs to be paid to whether market pricing and dot chart expectations continue to converge, and if labor and inflation data deviate from officials' assumptions, it may trigger a re-evaluation of the policy path.

    Why we picked this

    沃勒亲述9月加息依据与SEP信号作用，点阵图在保留数据依赖的同时传递政策路径，可作为理解美联储沟通方式的一手材料。

  3. ECB Press Releases46

    European Central Bank executive member Piero Cipollone was interviewed by Corriere della Sera about the progress of the digital euro

    Piero Cipollone, executive member of the European Central Bank, said in an interview with Corriere della Sera that the digital euro will supplement cash rather than replace it. The pilot project has been launched in the summer, and the first test will begin next year, and the first payment will be made in less than 12 months. He revealed that the EU legislative text is expected to be ready before the end of the year. The European Central Bank has selected 36 institutions from nearly 60 applications to participate in the pilot next year. He also said that the digital euro can provide merchants with public payment alternatives, and the cost of digital payment for small merchants may be halved.

    Editorial Comment

    The European Central Bank disclosed the details of the digital euro pilot and clarified its positioning as a supplement to cash, which will help alleviate market concerns about sovereign digital currencies replacing cash. For the euro, attention is paid to the potential support for European economic efficiency from the autonomy of payment infrastructure and merchant cost optimization, but the short-term direct impact on the gold and foreign exchange markets is expected to be limited.

    Why we picked this

    这篇官方访谈说明了数字欧元将补充现金并披露36家试点机构入选，可据此判断其对商户支付成本和欧洲支付自主的影响。

  4. CNBC Finance71

    Fed meeting minutes showed officials expected to raise interest rates before the end of the year but gave no specific timetable

    The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials expected to raise interest rates again before the end of the year to deal with inflation that has been above the 2% target for more than five years, but did not give a specific time for raising interest rates. The September meeting unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and 16 of the 18 officials who submitted forecasts expected another rate increase. However, recent inflation data have been lower than expected and many officials have stated that there is no need to rush into action. The possibility of raising interest rates in October has decreased; the next interest rate meeting is scheduled for October 28 and December 9.

    Editorial Comment

    The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting confirmed that officials preferred to raise interest rates once before the end of the year but did not give a timetable. Coupled with recent lower-than-expected inflation, market expectations for actions at the October meeting may have cooled. For gold and the U.S. dollar, attention needs to be paid to the difference in expectations between the October 28 and December 9 meetings, as well as the pull on real interest rates from high yields and falling inflation.

    Why we picked this

    会议纪要确认美联储官员倾向年底前再加息但未给时点，叠加通胀回落与收益率高位，读者可据此判断十月与十二月会议的预期差。

  5. Federal Reserve Press Releases54

    The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the FOMC meeting on September 15-16

    The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The minutes are usually released three weeks after a policy decision and are based only on information available at the time of the meeting.

    Editorial Comment

    The release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting provides the market with a window to observe the details of policy discussions. The language on reducing the pace of asset purchases and the persistence of inflation may trigger short-term fluctuations in gold and the US dollar. However, the content of the minutes is only based on the information available at the time of the meeting, and there is a certain lag. Traders need to evaluate its reference value in conjunction with subsequent economic data to avoid overreaction to lagging signals.

10月6日周二
  1. ECB Press Releases56

    ECB Executive Member Piero Cipollone on Digital Euro, Tokenization and the Role of Central Banks

    Piero Cipollone, executive member of the European Central Bank, said that the European Central Bank will extend central bank currency to the digital environment through the digital euro, wholesale settlement service Pontes and ecological framework Appia.

    Editorial Comment

    The ECB has promoted the digital euro, wholesale settlement services and ecological framework in parallel, showing that its path to extending central bank currency into the digital environment has formed an overall structure. For traders, the progress of the digital euro pilot and bank liquidity measurement may affect the currency circulation efficiency of the euro area and the liquidity conditions of the banking system, and it is worthy of being used as an auxiliary observation point to evaluate changes in the euro monetary environment.

    Why we picked this

    这次演讲把数字欧元立法与试点节点、批发结算路径和银行流动性测算放在同一框架，适合理解欧央行推进数字法币的整体节奏。

  2. ECB Press Releases53

    European Central Bank Executive Member Philip R. Lane interviews Ansa about energy shocks, interest rates and the impact of AI

    European Central Bank executive member Philip R. Lane said in an interview with Ansa that energy prices are higher than the baseline scenario but the second-round inflation pass-through effect has not been strong so far, and the rise in long-term yields will be included in the monetary policy review. He also believes AI is driving a rebound in global trade and euro zone investment, and cautions that broad-based fiscal expansion will not help inflation return to the 2% target in time.

    Editorial Comment

    The Executive Committee of the European Central Bank placed energy prices, long-term yields and AI effects in the same policy assessment framework, indicating that the subsequent interest rate path is more sensitive to changes in input costs and financial conditions. Traders need to pay attention to the European Central Bank's official statement on secondary inflation risks and fiscal expansion, which may affect the safe-haven pricing logic of the euro exchange rate and gold.

    Why we picked this

    欧洲央行执委在访谈中把能源冲击、长期收益率上行与 AI 影响放入同一评估框架，为理解后续利率决策提供了第一手视角。

10月5日周一
  1. ECB Press Releases64

    Philip R. Lane on the diagnostic challenges of ECB monetary policy

    ECB Executive Member Philip R. Lane sorted out the diagnostic challenges of the euro area's monetary policy at the 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, believing that the energy supply shock has entered the second wave and requires a multi-factor assessment combining fiscal stimulus, AI and financial conditions. He revealed that overall inflation in September was 3.8%, of which energy inflation was 18.8% and non-energy inflation was 2.3%; the policy interest rate had been raised to 2.50% in two rounds, in June and September. Lane reiterated that future rate decisions will be meeting-by-meeting and based on data, rather than pre-committing a path.

    Editorial Comment

    Lane included the second wave of energy supply shocks, fiscal stimulus, and AI in the same diagnostic framework, showing that the causes of inflation in the euro area are becoming more complex. After the policy rate was raised to 2.50%, it still emphasized data dependence, which will amplify the sensitivity of the euro to subsequent inflation and growth data. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, attention needs to be paid to the signs of transmission of energy prices to non-energy inflation, as well as the market's repricing of the ECB's tightening pace under the "meeting-by-meeting" stance.

    Why we picked this

    演讲把能源供给冲击第二波、财政刺激与 AI 的影响放进同一诊断框架，并说明 2026 年两次上调政策利率至 2.50% 后的逐次会议决策逻辑。

10月2日周五
  1. Federal Reserve Speeches54

    Federal Reserve Board Governor Jefferson talks about U.S. economy and monetary policy

    Fed Governor Jefferson said the U.S. economy may continue to show resilience and add employment, extending a six-and-a-half-year expansion, but inflation is too high and risks are tilted to the upside. He mentioned that PCE rose by 3.4% year-on-year in August, core inflation was more moderate, and the FOMC raised the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3-3/4% to 4% last month. Future policy adjustments will depend on data, outlook and the balance of risks.

    Editorial Comment

    The Fed governor's remarks highlighted that the risk of rising inflation remains at the core of policy, while the resilience of the job market provides room for continued tightening. For gold, the high inflation environment brings certain support, but uncertainty about the path of interest rates may amplify fluctuations. Traders need to focus on how subsequent PCE and employment data affect the balance of risks and tightening expectations.

    Why we picked this

    原文给出了美联储理事对通胀上行风险和就业大致平衡的判断，并说明上月加息后政策将依赖数据与风险平衡。

9月30日周三
  1. Federal Reserve Press Releases57

    Fed finalizes new stress test rules to increase transparency and reduce volatility in capital requirements

    The Federal Reserve finalized two rules to strengthen stress test transparency and public accountability and reduce the volatility of stress test-related capital requirements. The rules require annual public consultation on test scenarios and major model changes, with the 2027 stress test adopting an updated model and applying two global market shocks to banks with large trading books. Starting from 2028, the stress capital buffer requirement will be the average of the results of the two most recent annual stress tests, and the year-on-year fluctuations in capital requirements are expected to be reduced by approximately 50%.

    Editorial Comment

    The Federal Reserve's increased transparency in stress tests and smoothing out fluctuations in capital requirements will help reduce banking regulatory uncertainty, which may in turn affect the market's assessment of the stability of the financial system and risk appetite. For foreign exchange and gold traders, this measure may indirectly affect the volatility environment of the U.S. dollar and gold by changing bank stock performance, U.S. dollar liquidity expectations, and overall risk aversion. It is worth paying attention to the guidance of subsequent specific model changes and the implementation of the two-year average mechanism on market risk pricing.

    Why we picked this

    美联储通过每年公开模型变更并自2028年起两年平均压力测试结果，使资本要求波动预计下降约50%，读者可据此判断银行资本监管规则的可预测性变化。