Thought Moment

Gold's bounce is still running — short-term technical adjustment in play. But let me be clear: the bigger downtrend hasn't changed. A bounce is a bounce, not a reversal. Once this leg runs its course, we're likely heading lower again. If gold keeps pushing up and reaches the 4060-4080 zone for the first time, I'm entering short. This isn't calling a top. It's trading the exhaustion of a counter-trend move within a downtrend. In a bear market, selling into resistance is far safer than trying to pick a bottom. Until the structure turns bullish, I'm only selling rallies, not buying dips.

Gold bounced from 3,963 to 4,033 in the evening session — a textbook technical rebound I called earlier. But the bounce is weak. Lower highs, lower lows, resistance keeps dropping. Do not try to pick a bottom. 4H chart: near-term resistance at 4,050–4,060. Key level is 4,100. Structure says sell the rallies. My plan: Short 4,040–4,050, stop 4,070, target 3,980. Break of 3,980 opens the next leg down. Trade what you see, not what you hope.