外汇:欧元汇率升破 1.12 美元
欧元兑美元汇率升破 1.12 美元,EUR/USD 站上 1.12 上方。
欧元兑美元汇率升破 1.12 美元,EUR/USD 站上 1.12 上方。
Major European stock indexes closed mixed, with the UK's FTSE 100 leading the gains, up 1.08%, France's CAC up 0.78%, Germany's DAX up 0.27%, and Spain and Italy closing down. During the same period, European 10-year government bond yields generally fell, with Spain and Italy leading the decline.
Editorial Comment
The divergence of European stock indexes and bond yields over the same period shows that the market is pricing the fall in yields unevenly: the British stock market led the gains while Spain and Italy closed down, reflecting differences in risk appetite within the euro zone. For gold, the general fall in bond yields has reduced holding costs, but its support needs to be observed in conjunction with changes in risk aversion behind the stock market differentiation. The foreign exchange market can pay attention to the relative performance of the pound and the euro under the divergence of stock indexes and changes in interest rate spreads.
Why we picked this
欧洲股指与债市收益率在同一收盘时刻呈现分化,英国股市领涨而西班牙意大利下跌,可对照不同市场对收益率回落的敏感度。
USDCAD bears once fell below the 1.4192–1.4204 support zone since September 30 and hit an intraday low of 1.4171, but quickly recovered within the same hour, and the attempt to break the level failed to continue. If it can stand and hold 1.4204 in the future, focus on 1.42205 and 1.42416 at the top; if it falls back below 1.4192 and maintain it, focus on 1.4171 and 1.4130–1.41532 at the bottom.
Editorial Comment
USDCAD shorts' attempts to break through the key support area failed to continue. The rapid recovery showed that there was some buying below the area, and the shorts failed to form an effective breakthrough. Follow-up attention will be paid to whether the stabilization of the price above the support zone can be confirmed to measure the attenuation of the short momentum; if it falls again and remains below the lower edge, it is necessary to track whether the short momentum has re-accumulated. The current verification signal of the long-short transition deserves more attention than the direction itself.
Why we picked this
原文把 USDCAD 的 1.4192–1.4204 决策区和多空确认条件列得清楚,读者可借此对照后续短线方向验证。
美元在通胀数据强劲的情况下仍从18个月高位回落。
AUDUSD fell more than 1% after Australia's September jobs report was weaker than expected, with sellers taking control after a technical breakout. Employment fell by 39,300 and the unemployment rate was higher than expected at 4.7%; after prices break below 0.69056–0.69205, the next support focuses on 0.68321–0.68632, which contains the 50% midpoint of 0.68488.
Editorial Comment
The combination of weak Australian employment data and technical breaks has strengthened the short-term weakness of the Australian dollar and may be transmitted to the overall risk sentiment through commodity currency linkage. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the competition between 0.69056 and 0.68488. Gains and losses in this area will help judge whether the decline can continue. At the same time, pay attention to the overall trend of the US dollar to suppress non-US currencies.
Why we picked this
就业数据催化与 AUDUSD 技术破位结合,0.69056 至 0.68488 是判断跌势能否延续的可观察区间。
TradingView 观点显示,澳元跌至15周低点。
美元兑多数主要货币走低,美债收益率全线回落,纳斯达克期货仍下跌354点。澳大利亚9月就业减少39,300人(预期增加20,000人),失业率4.7%,拖累AUDUSD跌0.79%至0.6914,成为主要货币中的例外。现货黄金涨1.12%至4,150.85美元,WTI原油涨0.27%至95.35美元;PPI、零售销售和初请失业金数据稍后公布。
英镑兑走弱美元上涨。英国GDP意外上升。
日元在美国CPI公布后跌至三周低点,随后全数收复跌幅。
美元指数在美国CPI数据公布前从18个月高位回落。
The euro fell to a 17-month low as buoyant U.S. inflation data boosted bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
Editorial Comment
Hot inflation in the United States has strengthened expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Interest rate differentials have directly suppressed the euro and pushed up the dollar. The exchange rate has quickly reflected changes in interest rate expectations. For gold, a stronger U.S. dollar may pose short-term pressure, and we need to pay attention to whether the Fed's policy signals and inflation data continue this logic.
Why we picked this
美国通胀数据偏热推高美联储加息押注,欧元对美元跌至17个月低点,利率预期变化在汇率端得到即时体现。
美元指数冲向 103,因火热的 CPI 数据重燃美联储加息押注。
The yen rose to a one-week high and falling U.S. bond yields weighed on the dollar.
Editorial Comment
The strength of the yen and the fall in U.S. bond yields have jointly put pressure on the U.S. dollar, indicating that the current exchange rate has become more sensitive to bond market interest rates. For the gold market, a weakening US dollar often changes its pricing environment, but it needs to be comprehensively judged based on actual interest rates and safe-haven capital flows. In the future, we can pay attention to the transmission rhythm of changes in U.S. bond yields to the U.S. dollar index and Japanese yen crosses.
Why we picked this
日元升至一周高点的同时,美债收益率下滑成为美元承压的短期因素,可借此观察债市对汇率的传导。
The U.S. dollar index DXY fell below 102.00.
Editorial Comment
The U.S. dollar index fell below 102.00, reflecting the short-term weakness of the U.S. dollar relative to major currencies. The fall of this psychological barrier may intensify the market's concern about the weakening momentum of the U.S. dollar. For the gold and foreign exchange markets, we need to pay attention to the recovery or continuation of the US dollar index near this position, as well as the linkage performance of non-US currencies and gold.
美元回吐了CPI数据带动的涨幅,同时美债收益率下滑。
Bitcoin continued to approach $84,000, up about 2%, at Tuesday's open on Wall Street; U.S. stocks failed to follow a 5.4% drop in South Korea's KOSPI index. CryptoQuant analysis pointed out that the U.S. dollar index rose to an 18-month high of 102.57, putting upward pressure on BTC and insufficient risk appetite in the crypto market.
Editorial Comment
The U.S. dollar index rose to an 18-month high and was accompanied by a lack of risk appetite in the crypto market, indicating that the current macro liquidity environment poses constraints on non-income assets and risk assets simultaneously. Gold traders need to pay attention to the suppressive effect of a stronger US dollar on gold prices, while the foreign exchange market needs to pay attention to whether the interest rate and risk aversion logic behind the high US dollar index continues.
Why we picked this
原文把美元指数 18 个月新高和债券收益率波动放在一起,说明比特币短期上行面临宏观流动性约束。
EUR/CHF has rebounded this week around 0.9300, but euro risks have not yet lifted. The French-German bond yield spread remains around 141 bps, close to the recent high of 150 bps, as French fiscal concerns persist. Follow-up attention will be paid to U.S. CPI tomorrow, as warm readings may push U.S. bond yields higher and once again be positive for the Swiss franc.
Editorial Comment
The rebound of EUR/CHF coexists with the high interest rate spread between France and Germany, indicating that the short-term repair of the euro against the Swiss franc has not eliminated the structural pressure of French fiscal risks. Traders should pay attention to whether interest rate spreads are moving closer to 150bps again, and the potential transmission of U.S. CPI data to U.S. bond yields and Swiss franc safe-haven demand.
Why we picked this
作者将 EUR/CHF 本周在 0.9300 附近的反弹与法德国债利差高位对照,提示欧元风险尚未解除,并给出下破后的关键观察位。
The People's Bank of China set the USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.7298, above market estimates of 6.6981 and the strongest since February 2, 2023. The People's Bank of China allows the yuan to fluctuate within a 2% band above or below that reference price.
Editorial Comment
The People's Bank of China set the central parity rate at 6.7298, significantly higher than the market estimate of 6.6981, and hitting the strongest level since February 2023. This deviation shows that the official pricing is different from market expectations, and may amplify the short-term game of USD/CNY within the 2% fluctuation range. Traders need to pay attention to the subsequent central parity setting and the degree of deviation from the spot exchange rate to judge the pace and intensity of the central bank's management of exchange rate expectations.
Why we picked this
中间价定在 6.7298,高于市场预估的 6.6981,并创 2023 年 2 月 2 日以来最强,为观察央行汇率管理力度提供了直接数据点。
今日(10/10)越南国内USD汇率走势分化,DXY在美国通胀数据公布前升至18个月高位。